Last Updated on March 13 2026, 2:58 pm

Following just the third competitive on track session of the 2026 Formula One season, fans are understandably dismayed by the dominance of the Mercedes AMG F1 team. Mercedes were 1-2 in qualifying in Australia and finished the Grand Prix in the same order ahead of the two Ferrari’s.

A week later in China, little has changed despite the protestations of George Russell and Toto Wolff that the gap between Mercedes and the rest of the field is not as large as it seems. Friday afternoon at the Shanghai International circuit saw the first Sprint qualifying of the year and one again it was the silver arrows who locked out the front row for Saturday mornings short form race.

George Russell was over 6/10ths quicker than the nearest non-Mercedes car Lando Norris who will start the Sprint in third place. The gap was slightly less than last week in Melbourne, where George was close to 8/10ths to Red Bull’s sack Hadjar.

 

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Mercedes ‘on message’ that they are not much faster

Whilst F1 analysts like ex-McLaren and Aston Martin strategy engineer Bernie Collins were surprised at the size of the gap, accusations emerged that even so Mercedes were ‘sandbagging’ with a view to hide their real and much bigger advantage.

After the Grand Prix in Melbourne, Russell was filmed instigating a bizarre conversation with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc the ‘cool down’ room where the top 3 drivers prepare for the post race presentations. As the brief highlights of the race were playing on a large screen behind the drivers, Rusell – out of nowhere – instigated a discussion on the pace of his rivals.

”You were NOT slow,” he insisted demonstrably to Leclerc, repeating again “you were NOT slow,”. Charles responded with a wry grin, referencing the chasm in between Russell and his qualifying time, “Yeah but… Yesterday guys,” the Monegasque shrugged in a knowing fashion.

Russell was almost too quick to hit back, “I think you guys screwed up Q3, because no one really improved [except us],” to which Leclerc refused to respond. The strange nature of the exchange led to the impression that George was ‘on message’ with a pre-prepared polemic to dismiss any accusations Mercedes had turned down their power unit for the Grand Prix.

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Mercedes blow away the opposition in Chinese Sprint qualifying

Whilst Russell was again dominant in Sprint qualifying at the Shanghai International Circuit, there was something interesting hiding in the data, the broadcasters failed to discover. Five of the top ten drivers went out early in SQ3 with the clear intention of setting two fast timed laps with a cool down lap in between.

The other five drivers decided the tyres were good enough for just one lap, and left the pit lane later in the session. George set a blistering time of 1:31.520 while his team mate was around 3/10ths of a second slower. Lewis Hamilton was the best of the remaining three setting a time of 1:32.415 a fraction off being 9/10ths slower than Russell.

Team mate Charles Leclerc was a further 4/10ths back and Max Verstappen another 8/10ths behind Leclerc. The gap from Mercedes to the Ferrari’s and the Red Bull were simply enormous. In one of the qualifying sessions in 2025, all 20 drivers were covered by less than a second, now four times world champion Verstappen is over 2 seconds off the pace of the Mercedes.

The intra-team radio at Mercedes buzzed with a heated discussion. Despite only five of the ten drivers setting a time on the first run, the gaps to the field were horribly massive. The paddock debate would clearly once again revisit the topic of the FIA’s catch up allowance kicking win for the power unit manufacturers way behind the pace of that of the Mercedes.

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Russell the only driver to go slower on the second run

The first five drivers joined the others on track, as all ten set lap times in the closing stages of the SQ3 session. However, unlike in Australia where Russell went quicker, he was clearly instructed to run his car in a lower power setting – as only he failed to improve on the lap time set by the first five out.

Even Russel’s Mercedes team mate Kimi Antonelli improved by a tenth of a second, whilst Hamilton, Leclerc and Verstappen all improved by around three tenths of a second. Unlike in 2014, when Mercedes dominated the new F1 engine era, this time around the FIA have regulated to ensure any advantage at the start of the all new 2026 technical rules can be quickly reigned in.

The FIA have in place the “Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities” (ADUO) programme designed to prevent a single powertrain manufacturer from dominating the sport again. The plan includes a review after the first six rounds of the season initially set for post-Miami, then another after twelve rounds Belgium and a final eighteenth weekend review following Singapore.

A 2-4% deficit to the leading powertrain would see a manufacturer allowed one additional in season upgrade. A deficit of greater than 4% would see a second additional upgrade allowed. Manufacturers who qualify will receive extra time including dyno testing hours and in certain cases an increase in the PU cost cap.

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Round six is unlikely to be complete by Miami

Whilst Honda are definitely set to qualify for the special measures certain senior paddock individuals like veteran pit lane reporter Ted Kravitz, have suggested that “Mercedes may be turning their engine down,” to ensure the likes of Audi, Ferrari and Red Bull Powertrains do not qualify for the upgrades.

Whilst the qualifying times are an indicator of Mercedes superior power, the FIA no longer in the dark ages have a more sophisticated methodology for measuring the power differentials. Using a combination of hardware and software measurements and calculations to verify each PU’s real world output levels. The cars are fitted with advanced torque sensors on the rear axle which should provide real time high fidelity data on exactly the amount of torque each PU is delivering. This moves beyond the static dynamometer tests used by F1’s governing body previously.

However, the timing of when these measurements may be taken and manufacturers allowed to ‘catch up’ with Mercedes has been thrown into disarray by the war in Iran. There are meetings planned this weekend in China between F1, the FIA and the team’s to discuss the cancelation of the Bahrain and Saudi Grand Prix due to be held over the next six weeks.

Given the lack of diplomatic channels currently, a cease fire appears highly unlikely in the near future. Even were the USA to unilaterally stop bombing Iran, the leadership of the Islamic State have indicated it is in their will to decide when hostilities are finished.

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An early FIA review for engine manufacturers to “catch up”

De facto, the first review will now not be after six rounds, but after four should these races be cancelled and it then appears pointless to drag out the first of the reviews, until after the Miami Grand Prix. The teams and manufacturers look set to be back in Europe for six weeks with no race weekends and TJ13 has learned a proposal will be made at this weekend’s meeting, that following the Japanese Grand Prix the FIA will announce the results of their first batch of relative power measurement exercises.

Mercedes are likely to resist any attempt to allow any other manufacturers join early the “Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities”, yet the FIA may be able to force the issue due to other concerns.

Given the excessive closing speeds we have seen this season, where a driver runs out of electrical energy, slowing dramatically, whilst one behind is upping his power on the electrical boost button, the entire matter may be considered under the banner of “safety” which allows the FIA to make unilateral decisions.

TJ13 will be further reporting on this matter across the weekend of the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix.

 

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