With seven races and three sprint events remaining, the 2025 Formula One season enters its decisive stretch. After a year characterised by McLaren’s resurgence, Red Bull’s resilience and glimpses of strength from Mercedes and Ferrari, the competitors gather in Singapore for the first of the remaining contests. Not only is the drivers’ crown at stake, but also the answer to the question that has dogged this campaign since March: who really has the fastest car?
For much of the season, McLaren have set the pace. Their MCL39 has been the most consistent performer across a variety of tracks, though it has its limitations. Meanwhile, Red Bull suffered spells of inconsistency, but countered with decisive upgrades that have kept Max Verstappen in contention.
Mercedes and Ferrari have also enjoyed success, but neither has managed to perform consistently. The order has shifted again since the summer break, and as the championship draws to a close, each circuit presents a new test of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
Killing the Porsche Partnership Lit the Fuse on Horner’s F1 Demise
October, a crucial month of Grand Prix racing in 2025
Singapore marks the start of the final stage. Marina Bay is a stop-start street circuit reminiscent of Monaco, where traction and confidence when driving over the curbs are more important than top speed.
Red Bull’s updates at Monza have improved the car’s front-end response and traction, which is crucial in slow zones. However, the RB21 still shows sensitivity to bumps. McLaren’s car remains strong in terms of mechanical grip, but the front axle still feels vague, leaving Piastri and Norris struggling to find precision.
Set-up and qualifying performance will likely determine which of the two teams emerges on top, while Ferrari’s struggles with tyre wear and Mercedes’ heat issues will keep them just behind.
Austin: Finding Balance on a Versatile Circuit
Later on in October, The Circuit of the Americas (COTA) presents an all-round challenge for the US Grand Prix, blending fast sweeps in sector one, long straights and a technical final sector. McLaren’s car is consistent and easy on its tyres, but it can still lack bite at the front.
Red Bull’s sharper turn-in gives them an advantage in the opening sector, and their traction gains carry them through the final sector. Overall, the two teams remain evenly matched. Ferrari could take third place if the balance is in their favour, while Mercedes’ weakness in high-speed turns leaves them vulnerable. An intriguing subplot is Williams, whose strength at high speeds and newfound qualifying pace could see them cause an upset.
Mexico: Heat and thin air
The high altitude of Mexico City means cars have to run at full throttle to cool down. Traction zones and medium-speed turns dominate.
Here, McLaren’s efficient cooling system and balance in mid-speed corners make them favourites. Red Bull will be close behind, aided by their downforce advantage; however, their cooling compromise could influence the outcome of the race. Mercedes should fare better than Ferrari, as the W16’s traction gives them an advantage, whereas the SF25 continues to lack a standout strength.
Interlagos: Sprint Chaos and Rain Threats
Brazil’s Interlagos circuit is often unpredictable, from its mixed layout to the chance of rain. McLaren look set to dominate again, with strong medium-speed performance and solid tyre life.
Red Bull pose a threat thanks to their straight-line speed and Verstappen’s track record in São Paulo. Mercedes’ stability and Ferrari’s traction could see them take third place, although the compressed sprint weekend means that setup decisions carry more weight.
Formula 1 2025: November and December
Las Vegas: The Long Straight Returns
The Las Vegas night race features cold asphalt, a two-kilometre straight and tight 90-degree corners, drawing comparisons to Baku. In low-downforce trim, Red Bull’s car comes alive, aided by its ability to generate tyre temperature in cool conditions.
Ferrari could be second best here if they manage their tyres well. Mercedes could feature, too, as they have a victory from last year to build on, but McLaren’s draggy package leaves them vulnerable. This is the one circuit where the papaya team could fall to fourth place. Williams and Racing Bulls could cause an upset, especially after their strong performances in Baku.
Qatar: high-speed precision at Lusail
The Lusail International Circuit tests high- and medium-speed performance. McLaren’s strength in high-speed corners is offset by their slightly muted front end, while Red Bull’s sharp turn-in gives Verstappen supreme confidence.
Ferrari again edges out Mercedes thanks to its more secure high-speed handling. Lower late-season temperatures mean that tyre management becomes important, and qualifying could be crucial if the strategy remains limited to a one-stop as in 2024.
Abu Dhabi: A Balanced Finale
The season will close at Yas Marina, a track that mixes long straights with a technical sector three. McLaren thrive in the twisty final section and Red Bull excel on the straights, leaving the two teams neck and neck. Ferrari’s all-rounder package should secure them third place, while Mercedes’ deficit in straight-line speed will keep them in fourth.
With Verstappen, Norris and Piastri all in contention, the drivers may ultimately tilt the balance of power in the championship’s final act rather than the cars.
Revealed: Why Piastri crashed out in Baku
Conclusion
So, who really has the fastest car? The truth is that there may not be a single answer. McLaren appear best suited to Singapore, Mexico, Brazil and Qatar, but Red Bull counter with clear strengths in Las Vegas, Lusail and Yas Marina.
The two teams are closely matched, and subtle variations in setup, weather, and driver form will determine the outcome. Mercedes and Ferrari are close behind, each capable of disrupting the order, but neither is likely to claim outright supremacy across the final stretch.
Killing the Porsche Partnership Lit the Fuse on Horner’s F1 Demise
MORE F1 NEWS – Did Tsunoda say more than Verstappen & Red Bull want us to believe?
Max Verstappen returned to winning ways with back-to-back victories at Monza on 8 September and Baku on 22 September. Despite the season having been dominated so far by McLaren, the reigning champion showed once again that his speed, race craft and calm execution remain intact. However, with 69 points separating him from Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in the standings, Verstappen’s hopes of securing a fifth consecutive world title are hanging by a thread.
At Red Bull Racing, the mood is one of cautious realism. While Verstappen’s victories have boosted morale, both the driver and the management are keen to temper expectations. After the chequered flag in Baku, Verstappen refused to speak of a title resurgence.
“Race by race, we’ll get the most out of it and see where we end up,” he said, speaking in his usual blunt manner.
Helmut Marko, never one to shy away from the spotlight, echoed this sentiment, insisting that any talk of a championship comeback must wait until the results from Singapore are in.
However, the clearest signal of intent did not come from Verstappen or Marko. Instead, it came from Yuki Tsunoda, the team’s junior partner, who revealed more than Red Bull would have liked. The Japanese driver admitted that his own driving in Baku had been influenced by the title fight.
“I was thinking about both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships, for Max and for the team,” he explained.
“There were plenty of opportunities to attack Liam, but the risk of McLaren overtaking us both was too great.”
In those words lay an unvarnished truth: Red Bull are still playing the long game, and Tsunoda knows he is part of it…READ MORE ON THIS STORY
Craig.J. Alderson is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Craig oversees newsroom operations and coordinates editorial output across the site. With a background in online sports reporting and motorsport magazine editing, he plays a key role in maintaining consistency, speed, and accuracy in TJ13’s coverage.
During race weekends, Craig acts as desk lead, directing contributors, prioritising breaking stories, and ensuring timely publication across a fast-moving news cycle.
Craig’s work focuses heavily on real-time developments in the paddock, including team updates, regulatory decisions, and emerging controversies. This role requires a detailed understanding of Formula 1’s operational flow, from practice sessions through to race-day strategy and post-race fallout.
With experience managing editorial teams, Craig ensures that TJ13 delivers structured, reliable coverage while maintaining the site’s distinctive voice.
Craig has a particular interest in how information moves within the paddock environment, and how rapidly developing stories can be accurately translated into clear, accessible reporting for readers.
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
