McLaren are a genuine threat to Mercedes F1 dominance – The history books show that a team claiming a 1-2 at the Formula One season opener is the one which goes on to claim both championships. And in 2026 it was Mercedezs who delivered this kind of knock out blow to the rest of the field with George Russell claiming victory from his team mate Kimi Antonelli.
As of to confirm the dominance of the silver arrows this was promptly followed the following weekend in Shanghai by a Sprint victory for Russell and a maiden GP win for Antonelli. The young Italian then reasserted Mercedes ‘king of the hill’ standing with his second Grand Prix win in Japan to become the youngest ever F1 driver to lead the championship.
Yet the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix signalled hope for F1 fans that this year will not be another re-run of Mercedes 1-2’s and predictable race outcomes. Having taken the lead at the start, McLaren’s Oscar Piastri then held of George Russell for some 18 laps before the first round of pit stops.
McLaren held their onwards against Mercedes in Suzuka
Yes, George did briefly take the lead on lap 8, but was immediately re-passed by the Aussie driver in one of F1’s contemporary yo-yo overtakes. Given the Suzuka GP is usually a one stop race, after the chequered flag speculation was rife in the paddock as to whether Piastri – without the subsequent safety car – would have gone on to win the race.
Suzuka like Barcelona is a true test of an F1 car’s pedigree. It requires the best powertrain and aerodynamic package to claim pole position and the race victory. Antonelli lucked in during the safety car deployment, taking his one pit stop for fresh rubber whilst his rivals were trundling around at the maximum speed allowed under the safety car.
He emerged in the lead and when the safety car was withdrawn handled the rolling restart with much greater aplomb than he had the standing start at the beginning of the race. Maverick paddock pundit and winner of the 1997 F1 drivers’ title, Jaques Villeneuve, believes the race in Japan has cast doubt on Mercedes dominance this year.
The Woking based team’s impressive record of in season development means the writing is on the wall for a Mercedes walkover in F1 2026. “We’ve seen McLaren being very good at responding last year,” Villeneuve told f1.com. “I would be worried if I were Mercedes now, because the first two races, [it was] easy. They felt safe, they don’t feel safe after this race. The gap is not as big as they expected, mostly on a track that is very car-dependent.”
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A “big off” for Mercedes
A “lucky” win in Suzuka due to a favourable safety car deployment is hardly the result to fill Mercedes engineers with absolute confidence. “This is a track where, if your car is good, you’ll be in front, and a weekend for Mercedes where you don’t finish first and second is not a good weekend. A normal weekend for Mercedes is first and second. [Japan] was a big off,” Villeneuve added.
With Formula One now heading into an enforced two race weekend break due to the war in Iran and the cancelation of the Bahrain and Saudi GP, Mercedes may come to rue the missed opportunity for them to galvanises their lead in both championships.
“I think we would have maybe wished that it continues over into the two Middle East races and we can score a few more points,” the Mercedes boss admitted in Japan. “But I agree. It could be the case [others are closing in]. People have learned now, teams and drivers are starting to learn how to optimise the systems to their benefit. And we’ve seen that first indication,” said Wolff noting the McLaren driver’s performance at Suzuka.
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Mercedes “home run” no longer the case
The Austrian mused how quickly things have changed in F1 and that their rivals are now challenging the notion of a Mercedes dominant season. “What looked like a home run in the first two races for us isn’t the case, and we’ve always warned. And then, yes, Miami is going to be, for me also, a restart. How are the upgrades going to work that people are bringing? How have we optimised all the other systems? It’s going to be exciting,” claimed Wolff.
Further, political manoeuvring will also shape the 2026 F1 season will a meeting between the stakeholders set for April 9. Given the farcical overtaking and dangerous closing speeds it may well be the case the FIA unilaterally changes the technical rules from Miami onwards on the grounds of safety.
The simplest solution would be to slash the battery ratio of the total output from the power unit. Currently it sits at 50/50 with the internal combustion engine. There is talk of the electrical output being reduced from 350kw to a round 210kw, which would mitigate much of Mercedes current advantage.
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Politics may rob Mercedes of their F1 advantage
Jos Verstappen believes Mercedes will resist any changes tooth and nail when speaking to De Talelgraaf. “It is also a political game, changes are not always easy to achieve. Toto Wolff and Mercedes will want to stick to these regulations for as long as possible,” claimed the father of Max Verstappen.
“They have invested a lot of money and time in this and clearly have a head start, also in terms of knowledge compared to their own customer teams, for example. That is their right of course, they can now benefit from this,” Jos concludes.
McLaren have faired well at the Miami Grand Prix since its inception and claimed a 1-2 finish in the 2025 edition. For Mercedes the Florida track has not been one of their best although George Russell claimed the first podium in the sunshine state for the team last tine out.
Much depends on the next race and the FIA’s decision regarding potential rules changes. In the shadow of the Miami Dolphins stadium, the course of the remainder of the 2026 season may well be decided.
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Formula One in 2026 is in a crisis like its never known before. The all new 2026 technical regulations have delivered the most artificial racing the sport has ever seen in its three quarters of a century of racing.
A big sit down is planned for April 9th between the FIA, F1, the drivers and the teams where the entire concept of the 2026 rules will be laid bare. At the heart of the crisis is the pumped up hybrid power units the manufacturers pressed for with their 50/50 split between internal combustion engine (ICE) and the electrical component.
The new power units were conceived almost 8 years ago when the FIA was panicking over the number of manufacturers in the sport. In the previous decade Toyota, BMW and Ford had all come and gone and Red Bull Racing were facing the prospect of no engine supplier after their relationship with Renault hit an all time low….. CONTINUE READING
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