The Red Bull driver market is always chaotic, but this year the scriptwriters in Milton Keynes seem to have really lost the plot. Rumours that Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson could be replaced by rookies straight from Formula 2 have left fans, pundits and probably a few bewildered engineers wondering if Helmut Marko’s coffee has been spiked.
With Max Verstappen firmly established on his throne for the foreseeable future, the question of who will sit beside him, and what will happen to Red Bull’s sister team, has triggered another round of musical chairs in the paddock.
Verstappen is untouchable; everyone else is disposable.
Max Verstappen isn’t going anywhere. He’s Red Bull’s cornerstone, the safe bet, the man around whom every strategy, contract and rumour revolves. The problem lies in that stubbornly vacant second seat. Despite all the talk of balance and long-term planning, Red Bull seems to be operating a revolving-door policy where careers are made or broken in the space of three race weekends.
Yuki Tsunoda, once the great hope of Honda’s partnership, has shown glimpses of brilliance, but he hasn’t demonstrated enough consistency to silence the doubters. Meanwhile, Liam Lawson has impressed when given the chance, but two outings don’t exactly scream “build a dynasty around me”. Both drivers find themselves in a programme that discards its employees when the next new talent emerges.
Rivals cry ‘Foul Play’ as Verstappen smashes Nordschleife lap record
Hadjar is waiting in the wings
Isack Hadjar is the name on everyone’s lips. The young French-Algerian has steadily climbed the Red Bull ladder, and his podium finish this season was akin to a neon sign flashing: ‘Ready for promotion’.
Every reputable source, from Autoport to Motorsport.com, insists the decision has already been made. According to insiders, after Singapore, Austin and Mexico, the announcement will simply confirm what Marko has already written in his notebook: Hadjar alongside Verstappen in 2026.
This would mean that either Tsunoda or Lawson will be dropped. Maybe both.
Tsunoda’s shrinking safety net
Yuki’s biggest problem is not his talent, but his lack of protection. Honda’s gradual exit from their Red Bull partnership leaves him without his long-standing patron. Without the Japanese giant lobbying for his seat, Tsunoda is just another midfield hopeful, and Red Bull has never been sentimental.
Even if he manages to hold onto his place at the sister team for a little while longer, it feels more like a stay of execution than a lifeline.
Lawson: the short-changed Kiwi
Lawson’s case is slightly different. He hasn’t failed; he’s barely been given the chance to succeed. Two races is hardly a résumé, and yet Red Bull already seems to have pigeonholed him as an interim solution, the equivalent of a temporary worker holding the fort until the ‘real hire’ arrives.
For a driver whom many regard as cool-headed and reliable, this treatment is almost cruel.
Odds on Verstappen winning the F1 title 2025
Enter the rookies: Dunn and Lindblad.
But this is Red Bull, where cruelty is a feature, not a bug. Helmut Marko appears fixated on fresh blood. Alex Dunn, the Irish youngster with a reputation for speed and a tendency to push the boundaries, is suddenly a serious contender. Arvid Lindblad, who is also in Formula 2, has seen his stock fluctuate after a chaotic weekend in Monza, but he remains on the shortlist too.
There is a rumour gaining traction that Red Bull might replace all of the drivers at its sister team with rookies, turning the outfit back into the raw development academy it was originally designed to be. After all, experience is boring, rookies crash more dramatically and provide Netflix with content.
The wider paddock is a madhouse
Red Bull’s theatrics are unfolding while Formula 1 itself continues to audition for a soap opera award. Lewis Hamilton missed a Pirelli tyre test at Mugello because his dog Roscoe was unwell (and if you think that didn’t make Ferrari press release writers groan, you don’t know the profession well enough). Ferrari’s reserve driver, Guanyu Zhou stepped in, that’s how 2025 works, after all.
Romain Grosjean also appeared in a Haas, sporting a helmet designed by his children. This heartwarming subplot served as a reminder of just how long ago his Bahrain fireball really was. Meanwhile, half a dozen new circuits, Bangkok, Buenos Aires, Madrid and Istanbul are being considered, though whether they will make it past the endless politics remains to be seen.
Verstappen, Hülkenberg and a rookie team
The most dramatic rumour, pushed by Ralf Schumacher and others, is that Red Bull might make a complete change. Verstappen and Hülkenberg in the main team and rookies such as Dunn and Lindblad in the sister team, with Lawson and Tsunoda being discarded like last season’s merchandise. It’s brutal, but when has Red Bull ever pretended to be a charity?
The thinking is simple, if a little ruthless: if Tsunoda and Lawson will never get a seat at Red Bull Racing, why keep them around? It’s better to give the next wave of rookies their crash courses early and hope that one of them will succeed.
What happens next?
Almost everyone agrees on one thing: Isack Hadjar is on the rise. The only question is how many drivers will be dropped. If Tsunoda loses Honda’s backing, his time in F1 could end abruptly. Lawson might find refuge elsewhere, but without a senior team role on the horizon, his long-term prospects look bleak.
So here we are: a ‘development’ programme that seems to be more about staging an annual blood sacrifice than developing drivers. If you’re young, fast and not yet on Marko’s bad side, you’re in. If not, well, the Formula E paddock has excellent catering these days.
The jury is still out on whether this is Red Bull’s ruthlessly efficient talent management or just chaos disguised as strategy. Whatever the truth, it serves as a reminder that in the Red Bull universe, the most unlikely scenario often becomes reality.
Should Red Bull gamble on rookies, or are Tsunoda and Lawson getting a raw deal? Let us know in the comments below, we’re watching the game of musical chairs with popcorn in hand.
MORE F1 NEWS – Rivals cry ‘Foul Play’ as Verstappen smashes Nordschleife lap record
The Nordschleife has long been known as the ‘Green Hell’, a testing ground where the brave become legends and the unprepared are consumed by its 20 kilometres of relentless corners and blind crests. On Saturday, the track played host to an unexpected spectacle when Max Verstappen temporarily stepped away from Formula 1 dominance to try his hand at GT3 racing. What followed was a lap time that left the paddock gasping, rivals muttering and social media abuzz with speculation.
Verstappen, driving a Ferrari 296 GT3 under the Emil Frey Racing banner, completed a lap in 7:45, a time that not only beat his previous best but also pushed the boundaries of what many thought possible in GT3 machinery. However, the faster the stopwatch clicked, the more suspicion seeped into the conversation…READ MORE ON THIS STORY
Craig.J. Alderson is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Craig oversees newsroom operations and coordinates editorial output across the site. With a background in online sports reporting and motorsport magazine editing, he plays a key role in maintaining consistency, speed, and accuracy in TJ13’s coverage.
During race weekends, Craig acts as desk lead, directing contributors, prioritising breaking stories, and ensuring timely publication across a fast-moving news cycle.
Craig’s work focuses heavily on real-time developments in the paddock, including team updates, regulatory decisions, and emerging controversies. This role requires a detailed understanding of Formula 1’s operational flow, from practice sessions through to race-day strategy and post-race fallout.
With experience managing editorial teams, Craig ensures that TJ13 delivers structured, reliable coverage while maintaining the site’s distinctive voice.
Craig has a particular interest in how information moves within the paddock environment, and how rapidly developing stories can be accurately translated into clear, accessible reporting for readers.
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
You’re a bad press officer if you get a headache from a story about love for animals and missing out on a soaked Mugello
Two total rookies simultaneously in a season of considerable technical regulation changes would be unideal for any team; hence, the likelihood of a Lindblad-Dunn lineup is next to non-existent.
Red Bull should simply keep both lineups unchanged as this equation would benefit both teams heading into a big unknown, with the added factor of an unproven PU project, not to mention Lindblad doesn’t need to start racing in F1 from next season yet (although he’ll almost certainly start racing in F1 full-time from 2027 at the very latest, if not during next season), nor does Hadjar need to be promoted after a single season, & staying put at Red Bull Racing is the only logical & beneficial equation for Tsunoda career-wise, given he drove in the B-team for little over four seasons before promotion, nor does Lawson deserve to also lose his drive in that team, especially in favor of Tsunoda in any case, sporting or external factor-wise, with the latter basically non-existent already.
Additionally, Tsunoda’s Honda affiliation is only a sponsorship thing these days, but this won’t help his case at all because Red Bull wouldn’t benefit financially at all via running him in their organization anymore, so zero justification in keeping Tsunoda (unless for the main team) for a sixth season, even external factor-wise.
Sacrifizing Lawson after this season would be justifiable only if both him & Tsunoda were out simultaneously as Tsunoda is the only one who deserves to be dumped by any means, & even if both would be out in the short-term anyway, dumping Tsunoda first before giving the same treatment to Lawson either during or after next season would be more fitting than the other way around.
As for their short to medium-term prospects, neither has a concrete chance to find a refugee elsewhere as all other teams have their driver priorities elsewhere, even Aston Martin despite their upcoming Honda partnership.
Of course, this whole claim about Dunn came from Ralf, who’s hardly a credible source for driver moves, so zero relevance.
Dunn hasn’t been (& still isn’t) a serious contender as next season comes too soon for him anyway.
If Red Bull were truly interested in Hulkenberg, he would’ve been hired as Albon’s direct successor rather than Perez.
Madrid & Bangkok have been given for some time, with the latter estimated for 2028, while Buenos Aires isn’t a concrete option for the time being, mostly because an Argentine GP return would solely rely on private sector funding due to the country’s economic situation.
Istanbul Park could be a viable option for annual hosting return, but we’ll see.