Is the Mercedes Era Already Under Threat? Why Ferrari and McLaren are “Swinging for the Fences” in Miami

Whilst we await the official documents filed with the FIA which explain the various new parts the teams are bringing to their cars in Miami, the word in the paddock is Mercedes have just a few small modifications to their W17 racer.

In his media duties, the world championship leader, Kimi Antonelli, noted: “It’s going to be a very interesting weekend for us. We’re not really bringing anything, to be fair—just very small things—whilst other teams are bringing big upgrades, such as Ferrari and McLaren.”

McLaren team boss Andrea Stella went much further, claiming for Miami the team were bringing a “completely new car,” sparking talk of the first B-spec car of the 2026 regulations era. Of course, the Woking-based team have not redesigned their tub, which is crash tested and proven by the FIA.

McLaren’s bold claim

But so bold is the statement from Stella, it is to be expected the changes to the MCL40 are so significant they are, in fact, a complete aerodynamic reboot. With the McLaren boss confirming almost every external surface has been revised, this demonstrates the team believe a fundamental shift was required in how the car interacts with its tyres and airflow structures.

Having had little help from Mercedes at the start of the season on how to best deploy the various intricacies of their customer engine, McLaren recovered quickly to claim a podium last time out in Japan. Whilst a major focus has been on understanding harvesting and deployment, the new MCL40 package will be designed to better exploit the 350kW available from the MGU-K hybrid systems.

Suggestions emerged on Thursday that McLaren have a completely new cooling layout design, which will allow them to run the Mercedes powertrains at higher deployment levels for longer without suffering thermal derating.

Despite the Mercedes dominance of the season to date, McLaren hopes it has a psychological edge coming into the Miami Grand Prix. Mercedes have never won in Florida, whilst McLaren were victorious the last two seasons on the temporary track outside the Hard Rock Stadium. This weekend marks McLaren’s 1,000th Grand Prix start, with them joining the elite club which includes only Ferrari. Launching an entirely new car feels like a statement of intent and a confidence in their technical abilities.

Ferrari bring huge Miami upgrade

With the Miami race weekend being the second Sprint event of the year, with just one practice session, McLaren have a mountain to climb. That said, the FIA has extended the usual 60 minutes of practice to 90 minutes given the five-week enforced break the teams and drivers have suffered. So McLaren have just 90 minutes to understand their new car and set it up correctly; then it’s time for competition with Friday afternoon’s Sprint qualifying.

Ferrari, too, is arriving in Florida with major upgrades to its SF-26, which team boss Fred Vasseur describes as “50% all-new parts.” Not quite on a par with McLaren’s boldness, yet a massive technical statement all the same. As with McLaren, the aero upgrades are not incremental but represent a fundamental shift in how the Scuderia believe this season’s development philosophy should go. The shape of the sidepod inlets has been revised, specifically aimed at reducing drag and improving airflow.

The floor too is new, with Ferrari attempting to add stability to the car in the low-speed technical sectors around the stadium. With track temperatures expected above 50°C, there is a new “high-cooling” engine cover. Despite the FIA’s attempts to reduce the amount of “super clipping” the drivers suffer during the race, Ferrari are debuting a new power software map in Miami. This is designed to optimise the 350kW boost deployment of energy, giving the Ferrari drivers more capabilities when defending.

Mercedes gamble their baseline is high enough

Like McLaren, Ferrari are making a tactical gamble with the coming weekend’s Sprint format; yet with another two weekends of no racing before the Canadian Grand Prix, the season is quickly slipping by. The Italian squad will be hoping their fast starts—which are seeing off Mercedes into turn one—will continue and their new more efficient energy deployment will now keep them ahead.

Mercedes appear to be sticking to the adage “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” although at their recent filming day the team appeared to spend a considerable time practising standing starts. By bringing a small number of targeted ‘tweaks’ to the W17, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli will spend their 90 minutes of practice fine-tuning a car they already understand. Meanwhile, McLaren and Ferrari will be, to a certain degree, “guessing” their setup based on data from simulations.

Mercedes technical director James Allison is said to believe that Mercedes’ starting baseline for 2026 was high enough that for now they don’t need to “swing for the fences.” Whether this is confidence or complacency will be reflected by who stands on the top step of the podium come Sunday afternoon.

FIA set to declare engine upgrades for 2027

However, McLaren and Ferrari believed their aero philosophy for the 2026 season needed a major course correction and have put the enforced five weeks of no racing to good use. Should Mercedes find they need a philosophy change, their window of opportunity will be much smaller, with Grands Prix now coming thick and fast in the sport’s European heartlands.

Mercedes, too, are concerned about the upcoming FIA report which measures the relative power of the various internal combustion engines designed by the manufacturers. This will be publicised following the Canadian Grand Prix. If the rest of the field are down more than 2% on power, they will automatically receive the opportunity to update their power unit in-season and again before the start of 2027.

The Miami weekend may be crucial in this process, given if the rains forecast (88% for Sunday) come to pass, the race will be run predominantly on the internal combustion engines. The FIA have already indicated the 350kW electrical power boost available to the drivers will be banned in the rain. In a number of ways, Miami could be a moment of truth for the rest of Mercedes’ 2026 campaign.

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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.

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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.

At TJ13, Andrew plays a central role in shaping the site’s output, working across breaking news, analysis, and long-form features. Andrew’s responsibilities include fact-checking, refining editorial structure, and ensuring consistency in reporting across a fast-moving news cycle.

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In addition to editorial duties, Andrew is particularly interested in how media narratives shape fan perception of Formula 1, and how reporting can balance speed with accuracy in an increasingly digital news environment.

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