Mercedes’ Blind Spot? Why Antonelli and Russell Were Left Guessing in Miami Qualifying

Of the top Formula One teams, Mercedes is the only one bringing just a couple of upgrades to their W17 2026 challenger for the Miami Grand Prix weekend. McLaren boss Andrea Stella declared his team had brought a “completely new car” to the race in Florida, whilst Ferrari announced around “50%” of their aerodynamic components were new since Japan.

Red Bull are believed to have halved the amount their car was overweight in Japan, from 12kg to 6kg. They also brought a radical version of the Ferrari ‘Macarena’ rear wing, which they claim was in development even prior to Ferrari revealing theirs in pre-season testing. There is a significant difference between the rear wings: while Ferrari’s rotates 270° to open and close, Red Bull’s version rotates 160° in the opposite direction. Sky F1 commentator David Croft claimed during Friday practice that he’d “never seen such a large gap in a rear wing.”

Red Bull huge ‘Macarena wing’

Unlike Ferrari, who dropped their ‘Macarena’ wing for competitive sessions, Red Bull believed their version was reliable enough to use during Sprint qualifying. Indeed, it appeared to work well, with Verstappen finishing P3 in the second session of Sprint qualifying, just over a tenth of a second behind Lando Norris, who led the way.

Whilst Kimi Antonelli threatened to rise to the top of the sheets, he never quite made it, although his last-minute flying lap in SQ3 saved Mercedes’ blushes. The young Italian will start second on Saturday morning behind Norris in his McLaren. Conversely, his teammate George Russell struggled, finishing both SQ2 and SQ3 down in sixth place. He was a massive six-and-a-half tenths behind pole-sitter Norris and, more worryingly, four-tenths behind his young upstart teammate.

The conventional wisdom in F1 is that teams do not bring upgrades to Sprint weekends, given there is just one practice hour before the four competitive sessions for the remainder of the weekend. This doesn’t allow the teams the opportunity to properly test their upgrades. Yet, the FIA extended practice in Miami to 90 minutes, which the teams with a big list of upgrades put to good use. Is the fact that Miami is a Sprint weekend why Mercedes failed to bring any performance upgrades to their W17? It has been confirmed they will do so in three weeks’ time in Canada.

McLaren missed a beat early season

It could also be that with track temperatures hitting the mid-50 degrees Celsius, Mercedes’ historic Achilles’ heel in the heat reared its ugly head once again. McLaren, who run a Mercedes power unit, were expected to be challenging the works outfit from the start of the season. Yet the team complained that Mercedes had given them little or no support in understanding how to operate the power unit.

This was something Charles Leclerc picked up on when asked if he was surprised by how big a leap McLaren had made. “McLaren did a very big step forward, but I felt like they didn’t really optimize their first races of the season,” Leclerc said after Sprint qualifying. “So they were always there, but they didn’t put everything together.”

Ferrari appear to have been caught out by McLaren’s resurgence, with Leclerc qualifying just fourth, while Lewis Hamilton will start the Sprint down in P7. Yet Leclerc remains optimistic given the SF-26 performed well on the tire they will use in the Sprint. “On our side, we’ve struggled with tires,” he reflected. “The mediums were working very well; the softs, it wasn’t a nice feeling. So on that, we’ve got to look at it. We know that in the race pace, we are stronger. In terms of qualifying, there’s some work to be done.”

The Scuderia with their nimble turbocharger, have had the best standing starts this season by far. In Australia, Leclerc jumped from P3 to P2 at lights out, splitting the Mercedes for a considerable number of laps. In China, it was Lewis Hamilton who bested George Russell at the start, claiming P2 ahead of the Mercedes before Turn 1 of the first lap. Yet the FIA are now offering help to those teams making repeated slow starts, as battery power will be allowed to assist those who make a slow getaway. That said, this is more a safety consideration than a balancing of performance, given the extra electrical boost at the start will only kick in after 0.9 seconds when a slow start has been detected.

Mercedes allow their rivals to come ‘swinging’

The case that Mercedes have been complacent by refusing to bring upgrades to the W17 until next time out can be made merely from the fact that their closest rivals are having a much better weekend relatively. They are learning about the changes they’ve made to their cars, whilst Mercedes is merely optimizing the package it already understands.

Then again, given the impending FIA ruling on the relative power of the manufacturers’ combustion engines, some have suggested Mercedes will “sandbag” this weekend to prevent their closest rivals from being eligible for engine upgrades. Even so, Kimi Antonelli, who is an open book, appeared genuinely surprised at the performance of Mercedes’ rivals. “We were expecting this weekend to be quite a bit tougher, also because those teams—everyone brought major upgrades, which obviously closed the gap massively or even went in front of us,” he said.

“Definitely the McLarens, they’ve got the same power unit as us, and they improved the car a lot, so it was expected for them to be at the front. But I think we can be in the fight, and that’s what we’re going to try to do tomorrow and then on Sunday as well.”

With Mercedes not trying out the soft tire in the 90-minute practice session, both their drivers were somewhat blind as the final session of Sprint qualifying began. Yet, in the heavy-fuel Grand Prix simulations on Friday, Antonelli was quickest when the cars were loaded as they would be for starting a 300km race.

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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.

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