F1 season kicks off in Melbourne with big questions for Red Bull – As the 2025 Formula One season gets underway, all eyes are on Melbourne for the much-anticipated opening race. Pre-season testing in Bahrain has provided the first indications of the competitive pecking order, with McLaren emerging as the team to beat, followed by Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, Ferrari and a struggling Mercedes.
But while McLaren appears to have found the perfect formula heading into the new campaign, Red Bull finds itself facing a critical challenge – fixing a car that their reigning world champion describes as “horrible”.
Red Bull must play the long game in 2025
F1 is back!
The long wait is over – Formula 1 returns to Melbourne this weekend, and the anticipation has reached fever pitch. If pre-season testing in Bahrain is anything to go by, a new world order could be emerging. McLaren appear to have stolen a march on the competition, Red Bull are facing their biggest challenge in years, Ferrari are pinning their hopes on the blockbuster arrival of Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes seem to be struggling to keep up.
At the centre of the chaos is Max Verstappen. The reigning world champion, the driver who has dominated the last three years, is now facing what could be his biggest fight yet – not against a rival, but against his own car. With Red Bull’s 2025 challenger described as “terrible” to drive, Verstappen’s grip on the sport is under threat.
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McLaren’s breakthrough and the end of Red Bull’s dominance?
While the F1 circus left Bahrain with questions about Red Bull’s weaknesses, one team left with all the answers – McLaren. The Woking-based outfit were undoubtedly the standout performers in testing, impressing with long-distance pace, tyre management and a confidence not seen from them for years.
For those sceptical of McLaren’s potential in Melbourne due to their historically poor performances Down Under, the warning is clear: this is not the same team that has struggled in recent years. McLaren have learned from their mistakes and insiders suggest their data from Bahrain was an eye-opener.
If Melbourne follows the same pattern, Red Bull – and everyone else – could be in real trouble.
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Red Bull’s nightmare: a car that’s fighting back
Max Verstappen has made one thing clear – this Red Bull is not an easy car to tame. Reports from testing indicate that the car is still incredibly difficult to handle, and while Verstappen has the raw skill to extract speed from anything, the question is whether even his brilliance will be enough.
The main concern for Red Bull isn’t just its outright pace, but the unpredictability of the car. Last season, Verstappen could rely on a dominant package to crush the field. If he is to challenge McLaren this year, he will need a car that doesn’t feel like it’s constantly on the edge of throwing him into the wall.
“It all depends on whether the car remains incredibly difficult to drive or becomes more manageable,” says F1 expert Christian Danner. “If the car lacks performance, Verstappen will have to rely on his genius and hope others make mistakes. But the ‘others’ have learned.
With McLaren looking like the team to beat and Ferrari not far behind, Red Bull need to find answers – and fast.
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While Verstappen’s struggles are a major talking point, the other headline-grabber of the season is, of course, Lewis Hamilton. His high-profile move to Ferrari has been met with immense excitement, with the seven-time world champion fully embracing the Italian culture, the tifosi and the romance of Ferrari red.
Hamilton has done everything right so far – learning Italian, immersing himself in the Ferrari way and giving the fans the kind of showmanship they crave. But sentimentality will only take him so far. The real challenge begins on track, and there’s every reason to believe that Hamilton will not have an easy time of it against Charles Leclerc.
Danner, a seasoned observer of Ferrari history, has seen this film before. “The euphoria will change with the first results. It happened with Sebastian Vettel. The same with Fernando Alonso. Ferrari has worn out a lot of world champions,” he warns.
Unlike McLaren, Ferrari have been relatively quiet about their performance in testing. While their car is well balanced, its top-end speed is still a question mark. And while Hamilton is a proven great, it would be foolish to assume that he will be an instant match for Leclerc, who has been Ferrari’s golden boy for years.
“I don’t think Hamilton will be at Leclerc’s level in qualifying, at least not immediately,” adds Danner.
History has shown that being Ferrari’s superstar signing is not a guaranteed route to glory. Hamilton may have charisma and an unrivalled resume, but Ferrari’s internal politics, Leclerc’s speed and the team’s ability to self-destruct are all obstacles he will have to overcome.
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Rookie Roulette: The five young guns under pressure
One of the most fascinating aspects of the 2025 season is the influx of rookies. For years, F1 has seemed almost closed to new talent, but this season sees five fresh faces take to the grid.
Kimi Antonelli at Mercedes is arguably the most high-profile of the bunch, taking on the mammoth task of replacing Hamilton. Meanwhile, Gabriel Bortoleto faces the daunting challenge of driving for a struggling Sauber team that will soon become Audi’s factory team.
But Danner warns that the hype surrounding the rookies must be taken with a pinch of salt. “Almost all of them have been fast, but that doesn’t mean they’re as good as they need to be,” he says. “The real test isn’t speed – it’s the number of mistakes they make.”
With rookies often prone to making mistakes, how they handle the pressure of F1’s ruthless environment will be key. A few wrong moves and their dreams could be over before they even begin.
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Audi’s uncertain future: Can Germany’s F1 project deliver?
Speaking of Sauber, the team’s transition into the Audi factory project for 2026 has been one of the most talked about developments in recent years. But Danner is not convinced.
“The car from last year was bad. The car from the year before that was bad. What makes you think it’s going to be better in 2025?” he asks.
Audi’s success in F1 is far from guaranteed. The team’s personnel structure remains largely the same, and while its new engine project is promising, the likelihood of it being an immediate game-changer in 2026 is slim.
“The idea that the Audi engine will be a brutally good power unit? That’s wishful thinking,” adds Danner.
Germany is desperate for a competitive F1 team, but Audi has an uphill battle ahead.
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Melbourne predictions: Will McLaren win?
With all the hype, uncertainty and pressure building, the biggest question remains: who will win the first race of 2025?
McLaren’s form in Bahrain suggests they are in pole position to start the season with a statement win. Ferrari, with their strong history in Melbourne, could be a threat. And Verstappen? He may be Red Bull’s best hope, but unless his car improves significantly, even he might struggle to keep up.
Danner’s verdict?
“A one-two for McLaren…”
If true, it would mark the start of a new chapter in F1, with Red Bull no longer the dominant force, Verstappen forced to fight like never before and McLaren emerging as the new powerhouse.
The 2025 Formula One season is here and the stage is set for a seismic shift in the sport. Will it be a McLaren resurgence? A Ferrari fairytale? Or will Verstappen’s genius drag Red Bull back from the brink?
Melbourne will give us the first answers.
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
