Red Bull began the 2024 Formula One season perfectly with pole positions and 1-2 finishes in each of the opening races. Then the wheels came off in Melbourne, as Max suffered a mechanical DNF and his team mate struggled with extreme tyre wear having damaged the underfloor of his RB20 early in the race.
Yet there is cause for optimism given the strong performance of Ferrari across the three events held so far. The Scuderia claimed a 1-2 in Australia with a spectacular drive from Carlos Sainz to win easily from team mate Charles Leclerc.
Suzuka “a hell of a circuit”
Next up is the iconic Suzuka circuit which presents the F1 cars with a different challenge from the layouts raced so far this year. With its mix of high, medium and low-speed corners, a long straight and the epic Esses curves in the first sector, this track is one of the best all round tests for an F1 car.
“The way the calendar is this year, I think four races in we will have a pretty good idea [of where we are],” said Ferrari veteran Jock Clear. “Japan is a hell of a circuit to measure a car. At that kind of circuit, you’re going to find out a lot.”
Mercedes technical director James Allison observed, “It is a track with plenty of fast corners and also some slow-ish hairpins, so a real test of the car.”
However, the new more eco friendly F1 schedule means this weekend’s race has been moved from the Autumn to the Japanese Spring with the result of the track temperature is projected to be about 10 degrees cooler than when the teams were here last almost exactly six months ago in September.
Vettel calls on Horner for ‘clarity’
Mercedes spot setup “pattern”
For Mercedes this is a bonus given their latest assessment of the difficulties with the W15 as verbalised by James Allison. “If we were trying to draw that pattern together, then probably the strongest correlation that we can make at the moment is that our competitiveness drops when the track is warm, when the day is at its warmest and therefore the tyre temperatures rise with those of the track,” Allison revealed.
Yet this is of scant comfort to Lewis Hamilton and George Russell who continue to battle each weekend with finding a good setup because their simulation tools back at base do not correlate with what is happening on track.
Mercedes ditched the fundamentals of their revolutionary zero-pod concept for this year, building a car which appears more conventional amongst the other interpretations of the FIA regulations. Yet with Lewis Hamilton making big setup changes in Free Practice 3 sessions when others are fine tuning theirs, the technical guru’s back in Brackley have not yet solved the conundrum set.
Red Bull by way of contrast also ditched their previous year’s car design concept despite the RB19 being the most successful F1 car ever built. Adrian Newey and the team were concerned they were approaching the limits of development with the RB19 and so produced a new car which had greater scope in that area.
Vettel’s old strategist predicts his F1 return
Red Bull tools correlation “match exactly”
The team’s technical director Pierre Wache explained how the team back in Milton Keynes had developed another potential championship winning car.
“Our aerodynamics team has done a fantastic job. They have developed the new package in such a way that ultimately there is more freedom to further develop the car within the current concept.
“Therefore, we don’t see the current concept as the ultimate version, but we have created further development possibilities.
As if to rub salt in the Mercedes wound Wache continues: “In addition, it is nice to see that everything works well with this concept and that the correlation between the simulations and the track also match exactly.”
Ricciardo jibe backfires while Lawson lined up for Miami
Another Red Bull concept for 2025?
With F1 in year three of four before the next big FIA design rule changes coming in 2026, most observers believe the cars for next season will largely be an evolution of the current teams’ offerings. Yet Wache reveals the depth of Red Bull’s ambition when he suggests it could be that Red Bull again deliver another new car design platform for 2025 should the RB20 reach its full development potential.
“Even though the rules are the same for this year and next year, it doesn’t mean that we won’t be at the start with a different concept again next year,” Waché said.
“That all depends on what we find in the studies for the creation of the new car. If we see that another concept will give us a big advantage, then we will definitely go for that other concept.”
Whilst the rest of the field were hoping and praying that Red Bull would experience the law of diminishing returns after dominating for two seasons, clearly the world champions have set their sights higher and were prepared to take a risk to maintain their lead over the field.
RBR ‘baked in’ advantage
“Looking back to last year, back then you knew there would be two seasons in the current regulations. So because of that, you also knew that if the concept didn’t work, you still had time to fix things. Therefore, you could take a risk.
“The natural process is that you continue on the basis of the current concept, but it is not out of the question that you switch to a new concept,” concludes Wache. As Lewis Hamilton observed last season, Red Bull now have the luxury of such a performance advantage they can afford to switch resources earlier than their competitors, which is why they have the headroom to create new car concepts.
“You have to be open-minded every time. Standing still is going backwards in this world. That’s why we have to keep looking for how to improve ourselves.
“After all, what you manage to find new is what gives you the edge.”
Horner complaint includes “sexual harassment” – confirmed today
Mercedes lag behind on upgrades
Now in their third year since the new ground effect car design regulations were introduced, Mercedes appear to be a shadow of their former selves. Toto Wolff who previously stated he would be absent from the Japanese Grand Prix has changed his mind, believing the team needs his leadership while the going is so tough.
Questions were asked by experienced F1 writers this week, whether in fact Mercedes is currently experiencing a Williams or McLaren like spectacular fall from competitiveness. The team is currently fourth in the constructor standings, but sits just a point ahead of Aston Martin who battle each weekend with one hand tied behind their backs.
With Red Bull bringing an upgrade to Suzuka, the news couldn’t get much worse for Hamilton et al, given their first upgrade is now expected only at round six of the 2024 calendar.
BREAKING: Hulkenberg signs for new team
German press slams “spoilt” Hamilton and “clueless” Wolff
In Formula 1, the intricate relationship between a driver and his car can be the difference between triumph and tribulation. This delicate balance has come to the forefront of recent discussions, most notably with former F1 driver turned pundit Marc Surer’s candid criticism of seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff is immune to damning criticism from the German press either as RTL and BILD pundit Christian Danner says the Austrian is clueless about running the German manufacturer…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
There are rumours that they’ve offered Mike Elliott a job as his ‘zero sidepod’ concept wasn’t such a bad idea after all!