Heading into round four of the 2026 Formula One season, Mercedes are riding high at the top of the world championship. Yet a number of variables come into play in Miami which may challenge the Silver Arrows’ dominance.
Firstly, ambient temperatures will rise as high as 33°C with track temperatures in excess of 50°C, conditions the teams have yet to face this season. Mercedes traditionally fare better in cooler weather where their car philosophy is kinder on the tires. Add into the mix that the Mercedes 2026 bodywork is tightly packaged for aerodynamic efficiency and questions arose in Japan over whether their hybrid elements (MGU-K) were close to overheating.
Given the weather forecast for Sunday suggests an 88% chance of rain and 53% probability of thunderstorms, the FIA has mandated that during ‘low grip’ conditions the drivers will not have access to the 350kW electrical boost mode. Then it will become predominantly a battle of the internal combustion engines, with some believing Mercedes have one of the best.
McLaren’s “completely new car”
In the four years since its inception, no Mercedes driver has won the Miami Grand Prix and in fact their first podium was claimed by George Russell just last year, with a third-place finish. Max Verstappen won in 2022/23 which was followed by Lando Norris and then Oscar Piastri in the intervening years. McLaren report they are bringing a version of their MCL40 which is completely new — a bold claim for so early in the year.
While every team has used the time between races to refine their machinery, McLaren’s approach stands out for its scale. Before departing for Miami, Stella confirmed that the team had long targeted the North American leg of the calendar for a significant aerodynamic overhaul. “It has always been our intention to bring a completely new car to the North American races in terms of aerodynamics. We are still on track with this plan,” said team boss Andrea Stella in a pre-Miami GP press release.
Such wording is deliberate and provocative. In modern Formula 1, where incremental gains often define success, describing an update as a ‘completely new car’ suggests a fundamental conceptual shift rather than routine evolution. It suggests sweeping changes to airflow structures and bodywork philosophy, as well as how the car interacts with tires in different track conditions.
Reports in the Italian media suggest Ferrari too is making extensive revisions to its 2026 challenger, with around half of the visible aero components upgraded. Red Bull too have significant changes to their car, having tested a revolutionary new rear wing at Silverstone and so the competitive order is difficult to fathom.
Is Mercedes dominance finished?
Former F1 driver and now F1 TV commentator, Jolyon Palmer, believes Mercedes will suffer their first defeat of the season to the Miami heat. “I can see George coming out of the blocks quite quickly and taking the Sprint,” Palmer told the F1 Nation podcast. “Throw it forward to the race, and I’m just going to go curveball. I’m going to say McLaren get on top of this. You had Oscar second in Japan, and I’m going to say Lando gets a clean run through Miami. He’s had the win there in the past, new car, punchy McLaren and they show us what they’re capable of. Norris takes a surprise win ahead of the two Mercedes,” the Briton concluded.
Mercedes have not had the best of starts despite claiming pole position in Australia, China and Japan. On each occasion, the faster-starting Ferraris further back have got into the mix, leaving the Silver Arrows’ drivers with ground to make up after turn one. Yet the 2026 regulations have been modified during the five-week break since Suzuka, with one measure likely to assist the Silver Arrows at a standing start. To prevent a huge accident where a slow-moving car getting away is hit by another coming quickly from behind, the FIA has modified the launch procedures.
Prior to Miami, no electrical power was allowed until the cars reached at least 50kph, meaning the drivers were relying simply on the internal combustion engine for the getaway. Now the drivers will receive some assistance from the electrical hybrid which may reverse Mercedes’ historic poor starts this season, something Palmer believes would be decisive. “If they can get off the line, they will be difficult to beat. If they can’t and you’ve got these upgrades coming on the Ferrari and the McLaren, they came through with a bit of difficulty in Japan, they have to learn to get these cars off the line,” concludes Palmer.
Verstappen sets a simple target
F1 TV colleague, James Hinchcliffe believes Mercedes will continue with their winning streak yet he’s backing Lando Norris to claim his first podium of the season. “I still think Mercedes come with the slight advantage,” said Hinchcliffe. “Even with all the upgrades, you’ve got to figure them out first. Their baseline’s the best. It’s still a Mercedes one-two, and we’ll throw Lando in there for P3 because he’s been quick in Miami in the past.”
Given the Miami weekend is a Sprint format, McLaren and Ferrari will have limited time to test their extensive upgrades. However, recognizing the lack of track time lost to the cancellation of Bahrain and Saudi Grand Prix, the FIA has extended the Friday practice session from 60 to 90 minutes.
With the quadruple champion languishing down in ninth place in the driver standings, Max Verstappen has set a vague target for the Florida race weekend, “to be nearer to the front.” He finished a distant 32 seconds behind the winner Kimi Antonelli in Suzuka, a deficit Red Bull will be hoping to slash in Miami.
In the battle of the Mercedes drivers, the heat is being turned up on George Russell who at the start of the year looked set to cruise to his first drivers’ title. Russell has served his time waiting to become the Mercedes F1 team leader, even beating Hamilton in two of their three seasons together. However, Kimi Antonelli’s immediate success with wins in China and Japan has somewhat spoiled what might have been a ‘coronation’ for the senior Mercedes man this year. Russell is in a fight for supremacy inside the Mercedes team, with priority often given to the driver ahead of his teammate when it comes to first pick on experimental upgrades.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
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