Three races into the 2023 Formula One campaign, Max Verstappen was a whopping 24 points ahead of his nearest non-Red Bull challenger – Fernando Alonso. This year the picture is quite different. With Max suffering a mechanical DNF last time out in Australia, Charles Leclerc has closed the gap to the world champion to just four points.
Throw into the mix the dubious weather forecast for Suzuka this weekend where rain is predicted during both qualifying as well as for the race on Sunday and theJapanese Grand Prix is shaping up nicely for another Aussie style upset.
Wolff cancels Suzuka plans
Mercedes are hoping to bounce back from a pointless weekend last time out in Melbourne where Lewis Hamilton suffered an engine failure which the team admits they haven’t yet understood almost two weeks on. George Russell then misjudged his closing distance to Fernando Alonso in the closing laps at Albert Park. The result saw his W15 careering into the crash barrier leaving the British driver screaming for a red flag as he was left stranded in the middle of the high speed blind section of the track.
Toto Wolff has cancelled his plan to ‘work from home’ this weekend and will now be present with the team in Japan. The Mercedes boss had originally marked this race as one he would not attend this year as the demands from the largest ever F1 calendar takes its toll.
With morale not exactly soaring in Brackley, Wolff believes his presence at the Suzuka circuit will provide leadership and inspiration as the team continues its struggles in understanding how to best setup their 2024 car.
Lewis Hamilton has battled with setup of the W15 far more than his younger team mate and was even making big changes to the aero package during practice three in Melbourne when he should have been fine tuning his setup as qualifying loomed.
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Hamilton missing “the qualities Verstappen has”
The seven times world champion has just eight points after three races and has recently come in for criticism from a variety of F1 experts.
Ralph Schumacher questioned whether Ferrari’s decision to recruit Hamilton was wise: “I don’t think he [Lewis] has the qualities that Verstappen has. I don’t think he is as consistent as Verstappen. And he cannot get that extra tenth out at any cost,” the former BMW F1 driver said.
The Italian media were up in arms following Carlos Sainz stunning victory in Australia, their universal message to Maranello was they’d made the wrong decision in sacking the Spaniard, who at present looks in better form than his monegasque team mate Leclerc.
Long time Italian F1 journalist, Maro Canseco writing for Marca, questioned the politics behind the Hamilton/Sainz decision suggesting Formula One’s most famous team has dropped the ball by engaging a driver “in clear decline.”
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Ferrari hierarchy decision questioned
“In the offices of Maranello, or rather Turin, they made a decision to do without their currently best driver, already in 2023 ahead of Charles Leclerc, to place a driver in clear decline not so much in talent or morale and of lacking in attitude, as the seven-time champion has been demonstrating in recent times,” penned Canseco.
Now former Brabham F1 driver Marc Surer argues Lewi Hamilton’s powers of greatness may have been overestimated despite the British driver claiming g a record seven F1 titles.
“Lewis has always only driven the best cars,” Surer told Motorsport-Total.com “That means if the car doesn’t do what Lewis wants, then he has a problem. And that’s exactly how it is at the moment… Russell can live with compromises, just like [Fernando] Alonso.
“These are the kind of people who can just adapt to the car, Lewis can’t. But remember at the end of last year, when the car got better, the old Lewis was suddenly back again.”
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Hamilton: “He’s just spoiled”
Surer reflects on Hamilton’s career and how for most of it he has been fortunate enough to find himself in a racing car which is the class of the field.
“That’s exactly his weakness. Maybe he’s just spoiled. He’s always been in the best team in Formula 3 and Formula 2. That means it’s completely normal for him that the car behaves exactly the way he wants it to. If he has to fight with the car, then he loses.”
Of course George Russell’s progression through his F1 career has seen him tread a completely different path. Russell like Hamilton did win both his F3 and F2 series at the first attempt but instead of finding himself in a championship winning McLaren like Hamilton in his rookie F1 season, George was sent for an education with the Williams team for three seasons.
2019 saw Russell come 20th in the drivers’ championship, failing to score a single point during the entire season. Williams were also plumb last. George scored his first points in 2020 but was driving as a substitute for Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton at the one off Sakhir Grand Prix.
Lewis accused of having mentally checked out
In his final year with the Grove based team, Russell racked up 16 points during the campaign, including a reduced points award for P2 in the rain affected Belgium Grand Prix. George’s efforts saw the Williams team finally climb from the bottom of the constructor standings to finish the season ahead of Alfa Romeo and Haas F1.
Some F1 experts have suggested Lewis Hamilton’s head is out the door at Mercedes since his announcement he would be moving to Maranello next year. “Right now, it’s looking like his decision to head off to Ferrari, mentally, he is already there,” observed ex-McLaren F1 racer and pundit David Coulthard.
Yet if this is the case, Sebastian Vettel’s former strategy engineer believes Lewis is facing a “massive challenge” when he dons the red racing suit next season.
Speaking on The Fast and The Furious podcast Bernie Collins said: “I think he’s disappointed that the car’s still not where it needs to be even though they have made big changes. Because he’d pushed quite hard for changes in previous years and they were slow to come, he feels a bit distant from the team.
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Engineer predicts “massive challenge” for Hamilton at Ferrari
“Mercedes have always supported him entirely, jumped through the hoops to make what Lewis wanted happen. And now that’s going to change.
“I think the Ferrari step for him is going to be a massive challenge. He’s never driven a Ferrari-powered car. All the engine modes are different, the team ethos is different. Yes, Fred’s there, but it’s going to be such a different environment.”
If Marc Surer is correct and Hamilton does have a problem adjusting his driving techniques he will be in an entirely new piece of machinery next season, but his Ferrari swan song may not be all he hopes for. On top of this Lewis is joining a team where the lead driver will have been established for six years. Charles Leclerc speaks Italian fluently and is a known quantity amongst the technicians and engineers alike in Maranello.
Hamilton will be the outsider and have to fit in. Further Leclerc has made his intentions clear that with Lewis joining the team, it is his chance to prove himself a better driver in comparable machinery to the seven times F1 world champion across the garage.
Red Bull taunt Mercedes with another “new concept
Red Bull began the 2024 Formula One season perfectly with pole positions and 1-2 finishes in each of the opening races. Then the wheels came off in Melbourne, as Max suffered a mechanical DNF and his team mate struggled with extreme tyre wear having damaged the underfloor of his RB20 early in the race.
Yet there is cause for optimism given the strong performance of Ferrari across the three events held so far. The Scuderia claimed a 1-2 in Australia with a spectacular drive from Carlos Sainz to win easily from team mate Charles Leclerc. . READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
Anyone who gives credence to the words of failed ex drivers and those whose F1 experience is limited to watching the cars go round is heading for disappointment. Sacking Sainz was always a bit of favouritism unworthy of Vasseur, but we all like working with friends.