Everyone inside the paddock assumed Mercedes had built the defining power unit of F1’s new 2026 era. The on-track results pointed to it, and rival teams feared it.
Yet, in a shock bulletin issued to teams during the Monaco Grand Prix weekend, the FIA ruled otherwise. According to the governing body’s official technical baseline, Mercedes is not the engine to beat.
Red Bull Powertrains (RBPT)—designing and manufacturing its own power unit for the first time in history—has officially been named the absolute benchmark of Formula 1.
Mercedes is not even close. The German manufacturer is officially rated between 2% and 4% down on Red Bull’s maiden power unit effort. Remarkably, this leaves the Brackley squad eligible for the exact performance upgrades and technical concessions that Ferrari, Audi, and Honda had been desperately lobbying for.
The Hidden Ranking: ADUO Standings After 5 Rounds
This bombshell assessment is part of the FIA’s Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) system. ADUO was introduced to prevent a single manufacturer from creating a runaway engine monopoly under the restrictive 2026 engine freeze. It grades engine manufacturers on performance and awards development concessions to anyone falling behind.
Rumours suggest Honda’s deficit stretches past 10%. This triggered an emergency regulatory clause granting them an extra $11 million USD on top of standard additional development spending and extra bench testing hours.
The Technical Loophole: Why the Data Lies
What is embarrassing for Mercedes—and quite remarkable—is that a first-time engine manufacturer has built an F1 engine better than the German marque that has been at this for decades. Yet, what fans see on track and what the FIA’s findings state do not seem quite aligned.
This is because the ADUO criteria measure the raw horsepower of the internal combustion engine (ICE) alone. It completely ignores everything else: the efficiency of the electrical harvesting and deployment, turbocharger contribution, and exhaust pressures—all of which do not count toward the baseline measurement.
Farcical Fractions: The 50/50 Power Illusion
And given the internal combustion engine delivers only 50% of the total power unit output under the 2026 rules, this regulation now looks farcical. Yet, on this occasion, it is not the boffins at the FIA who are to blame.
In the spring of 2025, FIA Single-Seater Director Nikolas Tombazis offered manufacturers a more complex, multi-variable calculation model. The OEMs universally rejected it, opting to “keep it simple” by focusing strictly on pure combustion horsepower.
Ferrari, for instance, designed a smaller turbo to optimise corner-exit acceleration. This design choice sacrifices absolute top-end ICE power, inadvertently (or deliberately) tanking their ADUO rating and handing them massive development perks.
The Prophet of Petrol: Did Adrian Newey Predict the Crisis?
But most F1 engineers, including the great Adrian Newey, expected the 2026 powertrains battle to be all about the internal combustion engine.
“There has to be a big chance that it’s an engine formula at the start… There’s a chance that if it’s on the combustion engine side of it, that somebody comes up with a dominant combustion engine that will last through the length of the formula, because the way the regulations are written, it’s quite difficult for people who are behind to catch up,” said the newly appointed Aston Martin technical managing partner.
“If it’s on the electrical side, then there’s much more ability to catch up if you’re behind. And on the fuel side, which might play a role as well, there’s flexibility in principle, but with dyno restrictions and the fact that everything’s so optimised, you can’t simply chuck a different fuel into an engine that hasn’t been optimised for it.”
Despite his 25 F1 titles, this time Newey couldn’t have got it more wrong.
The Political Endgame: Mercedes Plays Chess
Do not expect the competitive order to flip overnight. Bringing an engine upgrade from the dyno to the racetrack is a lengthy engineering cycle. Additionally, the rules dictate that manufacturers can only qualify for these development lifelines once.
This creates a brilliant tactical dilemma for Mercedes. If Brackley rushes its first upgrade package and leaps more than 2% ahead of Red Bull Powertrains in the next quarter, the tables turn. Red Bull would then inherit the underdog status, unlock the extra budget cap allocation, and counter-develop past Mercedes with no way for the Silver Arrows to respond.
By intentionally sitting on their upgrades, Mercedes can freeze Red Bull out of development while continuing to beat them on track using superior hybrid software.
The Verstappen Factor: Unanimity Through Discord
Ironically, this calculation blunder might give Red Bull exactly what they need to secure Max Verstappen’s long-term future.
Verstappen has been highly critical of the 2026 regulations, demanding changes to increase combustion power and reduce the cars’ heavy dependency on battery harvesting. Red Bull management has aggressively backed this push to keep their star driver happy.
Previously, Ferrari and Audi resisted rewriting the engine rules because they were banking on their ADUO concessions to close the gap on Mercedes. Now that the data has turned the paddock upside down, every single manufacturer bar Red Bull has won the right to redesign their power units, and Mercedes could indeed stretch their lead in the all-new powertrains war.
Regulating the Regulators: Handing Over the Keys
The FIA’s bizarre mathematical baseline may have completely failed to reflect reality, but it might be the exact golden ticket needed to achieve political unanimity across the F1 grid. And it is the direct result of F1’s governing body handing too much power to the engine manufacturers who, in effect, wrote the much-despised regulations for the current era of F1 power.
Whilst it doesn’t help their overall cause on track, Red Bull Powertrains—set up at the insistence of team boss Christian Horner—now holds the ultimate bragging rights over Mercedes. This follows a number of occasions when Toto Wolff mocked the Red Bull engine programme following their simulations that predicted the 2026 cars would run out of energy halfway down the straights.
The Everest Jibe and Ford’s Ultimatum
“This project is like climbing Mount Everest. They are taking on manufacturers with decades of experience,” said the Mercedes team boss. Yet clearly lauding Red Bull as having the best engine is another nail in the coffin of the much hated 2026 F1 power regulations. Clearly Mercedes has the best package.
And given it is Ford who partnered with Red Bull to deliver the hybrid systems, while RBPT designed the internal combustion engines, it’s time the American automotive giant pulled its collective finger out.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
At TJ13, Andrew plays a central role in shaping the site’s output, working across breaking news, analysis, and long-form features. Andrew’s responsibilities include fact-checking, refining editorial structure, and ensuring consistency in reporting across a fast-moving news cycle.
Andrew’s work focuses particularly on the intersection of Formula 1 politics, regulation, and team strategy. Andrew closely follows developments involving the FIA, team leadership, and driver market dynamics, helping to provide context behind the sport’s biggest stories.
With experience covering multiple seasons of Formula 1’s modern hybrid era, Andrew has developed a detailed understanding of how regulatory changes and competitive shifts influence the grid. Andrew’s editorial approach prioritises clarity and context, aiming to help readers navigate complex developments within the sport.
In addition to editorial duties, Andrew is particularly interested in how media narratives shape fan perception of Formula 1, and how reporting can balance speed with accuracy in an increasingly digital news environment.
