For Mercedes, the glittering waters of the Mediterranean off the coast of Monte Carlo has not been a particularly happy hunting ground. Their last podium finish was Lewis Hamilton’s win in 2019 on the way to his sixth world championship.
Last season George Russell finished outside the points in P11 and since joining Mercedes he has never bettered a string of P5’s. Of course in 2026 with the new engine regulations, Mercedes have been dominant across the five race weekends to date, losing out only to Lando Norris in the Miami Sprint.
Yet the papaya liveried squad had brought a raft of upgrades that weekend, whilst Mercedes kept their powder dry until the following race in Montreal. So how will Toto Wolff and the silver arrows management be feeling about the upcoming event in the Principality and will the team with their 2026 dominance overcome more than half a decade of lack lustre results?
Rising Tensions and Rules of Engagement
At the front of most people’s thinking is the intervention made by team boss Toto Wolff during the Canadian Grand Prix, where he attempted to prevent a very public radio debate about the fairness of George Russell’s driving.
In a subsequent interview with Sky F1, he stated his drivers needed to agree the on track rules of engagement, but that it may be the team decides to put the “handbrake” on their duels. The simmering rivalry came close to boiling point in Canada, with hotshot Kimi Antonelli threatening to pay back his team mate in kind.
The Fan Backlash and Marketing Risk
In this week’s Sky podcast commentator David Croft argues Mercedes should not intervene given they have the luxury of a healthy lead in the constructors’ title race. Further, when one team dominates a championship, the only excitement for the fans is the duel between that team’s drivers.
To rob them of this would inevitably see a back lash towards Mercedes and potentially harm all their F1 marketing efforts to sell road cars.
“Mercedes have already got a fairly handsome lead in the Constructors’ championship,” says Croft. “That will only grow I think. Monaco they might not have all their own way, but they’re still the class of the field.”
The Case Against Team Orders
He goes on to note that despite the calls from the F1 analysts, McLaren ultimately did not require team orders last season to fend off Max Verstappen. It is not the role of a team to police every wheel to wheel moment of action, and to date the Mercedes intra team duels have not resulted in carnage.
“You are paying these drivers handsomely. You should trust them. Every employer should trust their employees to do their job because you’ve put your faith in them by giving them that job,” argues Croft.
“So, stay away for the time being. Don’t intervene. Don’t change it. Just keep reminding them of what those rules of engagement are and give us fans a real treat.”
Historical Precedents of Paddock War
Of course every great intra team rivalry in the history of Formula One is set against the back drop of carnage and destruction. Prost v Senna and most recently Hamilton v Rosberg – who were Mercedes drivers, eventually required reigning in for the good of the team.
“I’m not here to give Toto Wolff advice, but if I was, it’d be, ‘shh’, for the time being. And then when they do take themselves out, if they take themselves out, that’s when you can intervene as a team.”
High Stakes and Record-Breaking Ambitions
Set aside Antonelli’s threat to return the favour to his team mate, to date there is little evidence there has been anything other than a healthy on track respect between the team mates. Yet as Russell falls further behind and sees maybe his one chance of becoming world champion slipping through his grasp, the stakes will rise.
Further, Antonelli is smashing records left right and centre and to be F1’s top dog in just his second season in the sport, is a lure that is too hard to ignore.
The Battle of the Gear Ratios
To add some spice into the mix, as Croft suggests Mercedes may not have it all their own way this coming weekend. As TJ13 observed after the Canadian Grand Prix, McLaren are running different gear ratios when compared to their engine supplier Mercedes.
As Antonelli battled with Russell his overspeed along the back straight was in the region of 25kph. Norris who inherited second place in the Sprint after the young Italian locked up had just 15kph overspeed on Russell.
Further, onboard shots revealed the McLaren drivers shifting gear earlier than Mercedes, something which gives them better acceleration. And in Monaco where top speed is of little importance, it could be McLaren’s choice of gear ratio will prove the winning factor.
The Critical Importance of Saturday Qualifying
Much of the job of winning in the Principality is done on Saturday in qualifying. And in 2023 for the first time in F1 history, the top ten classified on Sunday, finished exactly where they started.
The races can be processional and so qualifying is crucial and it may be that McLaren with their shorter gears in fact have the advantage. In 2026 the teams are allowed to change their gear ratios once during the season, and with eight of the top ten longest straights to come this year, McLaren may well elect to move to a bigger ratio in the summer.
Dropping Active Aero for the Streets
Further, for Monaco the FIA has dropped the active aero where the cars in ‘straight line mode’ can flatten out the profile of their front and rear wings. This reduces drag by around 20% and boosts top speeds by around 20kph.
With no straight worth talking about around the twisty streets of the Principality, the FIA have decided the risk of drivers arriving too quickly at any particular corner after using straight line mode is too dangerous, and so the sight of Ferrari’s 180 degree revolving ‘Macarena’ wing will not be on show.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
At TJ13, Andrew plays a central role in shaping the site’s output, working across breaking news, analysis, and long-form features. Andrew’s responsibilities include fact-checking, refining editorial structure, and ensuring consistency in reporting across a fast-moving news cycle.
Andrew’s work focuses particularly on the intersection of Formula 1 politics, regulation, and team strategy. Andrew closely follows developments involving the FIA, team leadership, and driver market dynamics, helping to provide context behind the sport’s biggest stories.
With experience covering multiple seasons of Formula 1’s modern hybrid era, Andrew has developed a detailed understanding of how regulatory changes and competitive shifts influence the grid. Andrew’s editorial approach prioritises clarity and context, aiming to help readers navigate complex developments within the sport.
In addition to editorial duties, Andrew is particularly interested in how media narratives shape fan perception of Formula 1, and how reporting can balance speed with accuracy in an increasingly digital news environment.
