Expert suggests XXL bill – Speculation about Max Verstappen potentially leaving Formula 1 early continues to gather momentum, and now a financial expert has estimated what such a move could cost the reigning superstar.
If Verstappen were to follow through on his repeated hints and walk away at the end of the season, two years before his contract with Red Bull Racing expires, the consequences would be massive, both sporting and financial.
“Verstappen would lose $300 million overall, and that doesn’t even take into account the long-term effects of a continued presence at the top of the sport,” said Rob Wilson, professor at the University Campus of Football Business, in an interview with OLBG.
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Massive salary and bonus implications
A large portion of that eye-watering figure comes from the contractually guaranteed earnings that Verstappen would be walking away from. According to Wilson, the Dutchman’s income for 2027 alone could reach extraordinary levels.
According to Wilson, the payments Red Bull would have to make to Verstappen in 2027 alone amount to between 200 and 250 million US dollars “if you include salary, bonuses, and performance bonuses.”
This figure highlights just how lucrative Verstappen’s current deal is, and how costly an early exit would be. With performance clauses, race wins and championship bonuses all built into modern Formula 1 contracts, the financial upside of remaining in the sport at the top level is enormous.
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A sponsorship hit would follow
However, the losses wouldn’t stop at salary. Verstappen’s global brand is another key pillar of his income, and it would inevitably be affected if he stepped away from Formula 1’s spotlight.
The expert emphasised, “Then we would also have to factor in his endorsement deals.”
These are worth between 25 and 50 million US dollars, according to Wilson. “If Verstappen leaves Formula 1, his endorsement value wouldn’t disappear overnight. However, it would decrease, and without the weekly global exposure of Formula 1, he would likely lose half of his sponsorship income over time.”
In today’s motorsport landscape, visibility is everything. Regular appearances on a global stage translate directly into commercial value, something that Verstappen has maximised during his dominant spell at the front of the grid.
Formula 1 is the ‘ultimate amplifier’
Wilson emphasised just how crucial Formula 1 is in maintaining that commercial momentum, describing the championship as a unique global platform.
“Formula 1 is ‘the ultimate amplifier’ from Verstappen’s perspective,” Wilson said.
“It has a race calendar with over 20 races around the globe, millions of viewers and a constant media presence. Without all that, his commercial value wouldn’t disappear, but it would become more niche and differentiated, perhaps more focused on motorsport and less on his status as a global superstar.”
In other words, while Verstappen would remain a major figure in racing, his appeal beyond the sport could diminish significantly without the weekly exposure that Formula 1 guarantees.
A blow not just for Verstappen, but also for Formula 1
The implications of a potential Verstappen departure would not be limited to the driver himself. According to Wilson, Formula 1 as a whole would also feel the impact of losing one of its biggest stars.
The 28-year-old is not just a champion driver, but also a central figure in the sport’s global narrative. He helps to drive fan engagement, TV audiences and commercial partnerships.
Wilson explained: “In an extreme case, the loss of Verstappen could reduce worldwide viewership and commercial appeal by several percentage points.”
Such a drop could have serious financial consequences for the championship.
“This could mean a loss in value of at least 100 million US dollars. And that doesn’t even take into account the star power and prestige Verstappen brings to the track, not to mention the stories and narrative. That’s much harder to quantify, but it’s enormously important,” said the expert.
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Exit talk raises stakes
While it remains unclear whether Verstappen will act on his frustrations and leave Formula 1 early, the figures outlined by Wilson highlight the scale of what is at stake.
Not only would an exit represent a seismic shift in the competitive landscape, it would also be one of the most expensive decisions in modern motorsport history.
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Alex Stanton is a Formula 1 journalist at TJ13 with a focus on the financial and commercial dynamics that underpin the sport. Alex contributes reporting and analysis on team ownership structures, sponsorship trends, and the evolving business model of Formula 1.
At TJ13, Alex covers topics including manufacturer investment, cost cap implications, and the strategic direction of teams navigating an increasingly complex financial environment. Alex’s work often examines how commercial decisions translate into on-track performance and long-term competitiveness.
With a strong interest in the intersection of sport and business, Alex provides context around Formula 1’s global growth, including media rights, expansion markets, and manufacturer influence.
Alex’s reporting aims to explain the financial realities behind headline stories, helping readers understand how money, governance, and strategy shape the competitive order in Formula 1.
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
