With the Formula One driver’s title now wide open with Lando Norris having slashed his team mates advantage by 20 points to just a lead of 14 and Max Verstapen roaring back into a record fifth consecutive championship bid over the past four race weekends – The 2025 Grand Prix of Mexico may prove to be a pictorial weekend.
Last year the race was back to back with the US Grand Prix where Max Verstappen’s move on Lando Norris to take the win created paddock uproar, but yet the stewards sanctioned it as fair. The pair were at it again at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, yet this time the race stewards handed the world champion two lots of ten second penalties which cost him the race win although it was Carlos Sainz who claimed victory for Ferrari.
The F1 weekend in Mexico City was abandoned in 1993 before finally returning in 2016 where it saw the world champion elect Nico Rosberg take the chequered flag. Lewis Hamilton stood on the top step of the podium the following year before a run of five wins at the Mexico City circuit for Max Verstappen was only interrupted by Hamilton in 2019.
Inclement weather forecast for Mexican GP
The weather for the coming weekend of racing is predicted to be inclement, although Friday’s practice sessions are at the highest risk of rain (40%). Qualifying and the Grand Prix may also suffer from wet conditions although the chance of this falls each day to 20%.
Following his masterclass in Brazil in 2024 when Max Verstappen came from a starting slot of P17 to win the race by more than 20 seconds in soaking wet conditions, the world champion is clearly the sport’s rain-meister and should the heavens open he is surely favourite to thrive in the conditions.
The circuit in Mexico City is at the highest altitude of any of the current F1 tracks on the calendar and at 2240 metres (7350 ft) the much thinner air has multiple effects on the Grand Prix cars. Firstly, the aerodynamics are less effective in producing downforce which in turn reduces the grip available to the drivers. The second effect is on the power units which gasp for oxygen in the less dense atmosphere meaning performance differentials between the various manufacturers internal combustion engines are magnified.
During their dominant era, Mercedes had by far the best powertrain with Rosberg beating the nearest non Merc competitor by 20 seconds in 2016 and Hamilton by almost a minute the following year.
Verstappen dominates in Mexico
Finally in 2018 Honda had got their act together, and their power unit was no longer the GP2 engine as Alonso once famously described it. This and the switch to partnering with Red Bull saw Max Verstappen take the viceroy some 17 seconds ahead of Sebastian Vettel driving a Ferrari.
Covid saw the race cancelled in 2020 before Max Verstappen resumed his domination in the Mexican capital winning the following three Grand Prix by 17,15 and 14 seconds from a variety of competitors. Of course Max’s run was compromised by his misdemeanours last season but the evidence is clear, for Red Bull and Honda this is the next best outing to a home Grand Prix from a power perspective.
From an aerodynamic perspective, the issues are more complex. Whilst the Red Bull runs well at low downforce circuits, here the thinner air density requires the cars to run with bigger rear wings to compensate. So the Red Bull advantage at a regular low down force circuit is mitigated given they can’t run the skinny rear wing which has proven to offer Verstappen a significant advantage this season.
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McLaren low grip tyre advantage gone
Yet its the low grip nature of the circuit which may prove key to the battle between the McLaren’s and Verstappen. Both Lando Norris and Andrea Stella noted how good the RB21 was in Baku, through the twisty and slower sector two.
The characteristics of the McLaren car have favoured the medium and high speed corners in recent years and for qualifying this should favour Verstappen at the 90 degree corners in turn 4,5 and 6 and again from turn 12 through to the final turn 17 which includes the stadium section.
McLaren have for much of the season enjoyed a tyre advantage in low grip conditions, as the MCL39 looked after the degradation better than any of its competition. Yet last time out it appears both Ferrari and Red Bull have improved significantly in this area as in the baking hot temperatures in Austin Texas, Lando Norris was unable to pass Charles Leclerc until near to the end of the race.
Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris will also face challenges from Ferrari and Mercedes in qualifying and so its no longer guaranteed they’ll have a two cars to one advantage up front against Verstappen as happened at the US Grand Prix. There Piastri qualified just sixth with both Ferrari’;s and George Russell ahead of him.
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Further, Piastri has never quite figured out the flow of the Autodromo and in his two previous visits has finished a lowly P8 with last year him being over a minute of the pace of race winner Carlos Sainz. McLaren said he struggled with the low grip nature of Austin last time out, well Mexico City has even less.
Norris was second to the Spaniard and so the form book along with the effects of altitude and the circuit configuration appear to favour Verstappen. Lando should fair better than his team mate who has looked far from his best since he was told to relinquish his position to Norris in Monza.
A litany of errors in Baku saw Piastri hit the wall in qualifying and the race as well as making a false start in the Grand Prix and he was off the pace too in Singapore. This is a huge weekend for Verstappen given the pace advantage he should have over his title rivals and a win with just a top five for Piastri – which wold be a result – would slash the deficit to just 25 points, with 116 remaining up for grabs.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
At TJ13, Andrew plays a central role in shaping the site’s output, working across breaking news, analysis, and long-form features. Andrew’s responsibilities include fact-checking, refining editorial structure, and ensuring consistency in reporting across a fast-moving news cycle.
Andrew’s work focuses particularly on the intersection of Formula 1 politics, regulation, and team strategy. Andrew closely follows developments involving the FIA, team leadership, and driver market dynamics, helping to provide context behind the sport’s biggest stories.
With experience covering multiple seasons of Formula 1’s modern hybrid era, Andrew has developed a detailed understanding of how regulatory changes and competitive shifts influence the grid. Andrew’s editorial approach prioritises clarity and context, aiming to help readers navigate complex developments within the sport.
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