Last Updated on October 15 2025, 9:31 pm
How Max Verstappen Could Still Win the 2025 F1 Championship, the Maths – With Formula 1 approaching its climax, the championship picture, while seemingly dominated by the colours orange and papaya, still offers a glimmer of hope to one man: Max Verstappen. According to a recent Reddit post containing race-by-race projections, there is still a mathematical way for the Dutchman to reclaim his Drivers’ Championship title. It’s improbable, but not impossible.
The chart, originally credited to @F1GuyDan, shows how Verstappen could surpass the McLaren duo, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, in the remaining six Grands Prix and three sprint races. In this hypothetical scenario, Verstappen would need to win almost every remaining race while hoping that the McLaren drivers falter at crucial moments.
While the numbers may appear optimistic, former F1 driver Johnny Herbert noted this week that “if anyone could pull off one of the greatest comebacks in Formula 1 history, it’s Max”.
The maths behind the miracle
Verstappen currently has 273 points, putting him behind championship leader Oscar Piastri (336 points) and his teammate Lando Norris (314 points). The Reddit projection assumes that Verstappen will dominate the final stretch, collecting maximum points from almost every sprint and race weekend. His potential tally: 447 points.
Despite starting with a commanding lead, Piastri would score moderately, some podiums and some missed opportunities, to finish on 445 points. Meanwhile, Norris would end on 428 points. In this scenario, Verstappen would win the title by just two points.
To achieve this, he would need to win the USA, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi rounds, as well as several sprints. The chart assumes he achieves eight points in each sprint and 25 in each Grand Prix, essentially perfection. Meanwhile, Piastri and Norris would need to consistently finish off the podium or encounter reliability issues.
This wouldn’t just be about skill, it would also take a fair amount of luck. One DNF, one mistimed safety car or one collision between rivals could dramatically alter the points spread. The numbers keep the dream alive, but the reality remains daunting.
So why does the comeback still feel possible?
Johnny Herbert’s faith in Verstappen isn’t unfounded. He describes Max as a driver with ‘aura’, the psychological edge that intimidates rivals.
“Everyone knows that if you compete against Max on the racetrack, you’re probably going to lose,” he told BettingLounge. “He has this aura that he created himself, and it won’t intimidate him in any way. He’ll just use it to the maximum.”
Herbert believes that Verstappen’s greatest strength lies in his ability to push relentlessly without losing his composure. “He’s in a very comfortable position,” he added. “He can shake off any negativity. If he needs to shift up a gear, he can.”
In other words, even when the numbers suggest defeat, Verstappen’s mindset won’t allow him to give up. He’ll push until the final lap of the final race.
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Reddit’s response has been mixed.
Reddit users have been quick to respond to the chart, with some feeling hopeful and others more cynical. The thread is a fascinating reflection of how fans perceive Verstappen’s chances.
User Kalmer1 summed up the scepticism succinctly: ‘Ah yes, just win every single race and hope Piastri drops off the podium a few more times.’ Others, like Neat_Breakfast_6659, were more resigned to reality: ‘COTA Max will mathematically be out of the running and this false hope will finally stop. As a Max fan, it’s becoming unnerving seeing these posts.”
But not everyone has given up. Puzzled_Monk1990 pointed out that ‘Max could DNF in Austin and Piastri could win, but Max would still be in with a chance’, highlighting that pure mathematics keeps the dream alive for a few more rounds.
Others suggested that chaos could tilt the balance. ‘Just one papaya “incident” (double DNF) and it gets a lot easier,’ joked user archielotsofnumbers, referring to the potential for a McLaren collision.
Another Redditor, Branded-Junk, took a more analytical view: ‘Now that the constructors’ championship is locked up, Lando has to go into desperation mode. This could literally be his one chance at winning a title. If Lando gets aggressive, Piastri has to react in kind, otherwise he will be caught out.”
This captures a key dynamic: McLaren’s internal rivalry could open the door for Verstappen. If Norris and Piastri hinder each other in their pursuit of glory, Verstappen could quietly take advantage.
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Luck, rivals, and the unknown
Even Herbert admits that Verstappen’s path depends heavily on luck.
“Realistically, he probably has no chance if the other two continue driving as they have been,” he said. “But a bit of luck will be necessary, that the other two take points off each other and then pass them on to Max.”
Several Reddit users echoed this sentiment. Some noted that Mercedes’ George Russell could also play the spoiler by taking points off the McLarens if the Silver Arrows continue to improve.
“The Mercedes is fast and could very well take second place, taking points from the McLarens,” observed Masteriiz.
Others, like BeanTownDataFreak, speculated that McLaren might strategically favour one driver over the other.
“I have a feeling that McLaren will try hard to help Lando get in front of Oscar, and Max just needs to focus on beating Lando to win the WDC.”
Then there are the emotional fans, some hopeful, some simply tired.
“This makes me realise that Max won’t make it unless the McLarens crash twice. So let’s perform some voodoo to make it happen,’ one joked. Another bluntly concluded, ‘Hopium.'”
The final verdict?
While the Reddit table may not reflect the most realistic scenario, it taps into the enduring belief that Verstappen’s talent, aggression and resilience could still influence the championship outcome. The numbers suggest a miracle, but history suggests not to count him out.
As one fan reminded others, “Last year, Norris also had a few good races when he could significantly close the gap to Max. Then we all know how the season ended.”
In Formula 1, momentum can shift overnight. If Verstappen wins in Austin and the McLarens falter, the gap will shrink dramatically and the psychological tide could turn. The odds are steep, but this is the kind of late-season drama that keeps fans watching until the very end.
Whether it’s wishful thinking or the start of something real, one thing is certain: if any driver can make the impossible look inevitable, it’s Max Verstappen.
Do you feel Max could do the impossible and retain his Formula 1 drivers title in 2025? Let us know in the comments.
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Formula One broadcasts have improved measurably over recent decades since the decision by Bernie Ecclestone for the sport to produce its own TV coverage. Prior to this is was national broadcasters who had the responsibility of providing the world with the TV pictures, which at times resulted in woeful self interest.
Prior to 2007 when the FOM TV world feed was introduced and F1 controlled the entire TV production individual broadcasters would produce their home races. In the UK this was ITV, in Germany it was RTL, RAI for Imola and Monza and Fuji TV for the Japanese Grand Prix.
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Clara Marlowe has worked in motorsport journalism for over 15 years, writing features for established sports magazines and online outlets. With formal training in journalism and a reputation for human-interest storytelling, she highlights the often-overlooked figures behind Formula 1’s success.
