Last Updated on April 1 2025, 1:01 pm
Lewis Hamilton sucks the oxygen out of any room he walks into and at the regular FIA press conferences for the drivers, he is often asked around half of the total questions in a session. His move to Ferrari has moved the spotlight on from the Mercedes F1 team who in recent seasons had given their drivers capricious cars with which to race.
With the attention of the paddock on Hamilton and Ferrari, little has been made of the W16’s progress from last year. George Russell has picked up two podiums finishes in the opening two Grand Prix and his team mate Antonelli has racked up an impressive 22 points and lies fifth ahead of the two Ferrari drivers.
Mercedes are comfortable second in the constructors championship 21 points behind the leading McLaren team. The Brackley based outfit are a whopping 40 points ahead of Ferrari who are in joint P5 along with Williams following the double disqualifications of Hamilton and Leclerc in China.
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Of course there are smirks around the Mercedes garage come race weekend, given Hamilton’s high profile defection from the team to rivals Ferrari. That said the spectre of Lewis remains large over the silver arrows team, with chief engineer Bono accidentally replying to a radio message from Kimi Antonelli, with the auto pilot reposes, “copy that, Lewis.”
The genuine F1 pecking order for the early part of 2025 is yet to emerge fully, given the outlier characteristics of both Albert Park and the Shanghai International Circuit which had also been completely resurfaced. The repaved Chinese track appeared ti favour strongly the drivers on pole who could run in clean air and preserve their tyres better than the rest of the field, so again the waters are muddied when trying to establish a true measure of each F1 team’s performance capabilities.
Initial reactions from F1 analysts appear to suggest that the Mercedes W16 has a more consistent baseline than either the Ferrari or Red Bull cars, although in the hands of Max Verstappen the RB21 has not looked vastly outpaced.
Having tested in Bahrain, raced in Melbourne and Shanghai, Mercedes track side director of engineering, Andrew Shovlin, believes “we’ve shown that we have a car that works well over a range of circuits,” in a team produced video clip.
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“What we’ve also seen, though, is that McLaren are probably the team to beat. Max [Verstappen, Red Bull] is pretty quick. Ferrari certainly don’t look like they’re far behind and they’ve had a bit of bad luck in the last few races,” Shovlin adds.
“So it’s a pretty tight fight at the front. We’re working hard to bring developments to the car, because, as I said, we need to close the gap to McLaren in particular.”
McLaren start the year once again under suspicion that they are using cleverly designed flexible bodywork on their front and rear wings which pass the FIA’s static load test, but then flex when under load from the air pressure when on track.
The FIA responded to complaints in Australia by slashing the tolerance allowed for the rear wing’s test to a quarter of its previous allowance. All the team’s were declared legal in China, although a number of the wings used in Melbourne the previous week, would not have passed the new test.
F1 pecking order evolving
New regulations for the front wings are looking large which come into force at the Spanish Grand Prix and many are hoping that this will see McLaren falter in what appears a relentless charge towards both F1 20925 championships.
Yet Shovlin believes the true pecking order of the F1 2025 field has not yet been established and the triple header of races coming in Japan, Bahrain and Saudi Arablia will prove different challenges for the drivers and teams. “Suzuka is a fantastic circuit: very flowing and very fast. Many drivers have it as their favourite on the calendar,” said the Mercedes director of trackside engineering.
“First time for Kimi, though, and that’s quite a tall order for such a young driver to be going there on their third race, but he’s excited to drive that.” Bahrain will be a more familiar event given the teams held three days of pre-season testing there before the opening round down under. Yet the unusual freezing cold conditions for the test in February may mean a whole new set of data is required for the teams to decide on what will be their optimum setup. Shovlin hopes Mercedes can fight for podiums in the desert state.
“Then there is Saudi Arabia, a street track which is quite smooth, with a relatively new tarmac and that throws up its own challenges. So three very different circuits. By the time we’ve done five [[rounds] we’ll have some idea of the real order. But as I said, it’s exciting to start a season with a car that works well and the drivers enjoy driving,” he concludes.
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Red Bull car characteristics suit Suzuka
Ferrari will be hoping to kick start their season in the land of the rising sun as the iconic Suzuka circuit has favoured their car’s characteristics in recent years. Sainz and Leclerc were 3rd and 4th respectively last year but only behind Verstappen and Checo in what was an exceptionally quick RB20 during the early rounds of 2024.
In previous years the slick aerodynamics of the Red Bull cars has found themselves suited to the fast and flowing track in Suzuka. Verstappen has claimed victory there the last three years in a row and in the current field only Fernando Alonso (2006) and Lewis Hamilton (2014,15,17,18) besides the world champion have won a Grand Prix at the Honda owned facility.
Whilst considered a “classic”, Suzuka came fairly late to the F1 calendar hosting its first event in 1987 which Gerhard Berger won. The track became famous due to the iconic battles which raged between Senna and Prost, one of which saw the Brazilian disqualified from the race for cutting the chicane and initially banned for six months from F1 competition.
Suzuka a favourite for Max
Former Renault driver and commentator for F1.com, Joylon Palmer, describes the circuit as a drivers favourite and one that’s all about finding the flow. With no reference points after hurtling into turn one Palmer explains: “It’s all based on feel from Turns 2 to 7, just gauging the grip and balancing the car right on the edge through all the ‘S’ bends which culminate at Turn 7.”
This will be music to Max Verstappen’s ears as there’s no one better in F1 suited to finding the flow and balancing their car on the edge. One issue for the world champion may come in the final chicane, where a lump of the kerb is ridden across for the quickest time by the drivers. This is something the Red Bull car does not do well.
With a much shorter pit stop time loss than in China, at 22.2 seconds this may encourage the drivers to race flat out and make the race a two stopper. The probability of a safety car is around 67% and the lesser used virtual safety car has been deployed on 50% of the Grand Prix in Suzuka since the technology was introduced to F1.
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These are crazy times in Formula One land with Red Bull topping the headlines after making Liam Lawson the driver with the shortest ever career with the team. Whilst the timing of Lawson’s demotion was a surprise for many in the paddock after the departure of Sergio Perez who had raced alongside Verstappen since 2021 filling the seat with a junior driver was never going to be easy.
Now the headlines in Japan are all about their man Yuki Tsunoda as he debuts for the best Honda powered team on the F1 grid. Lawson meanwhile may yet spring a surprise and out qualify his Japanese rival given the Racing Bull car is way easier to handle and was placed well in China before the team’s race strategy team imploded.
In other shocking news the FIA is having a ‘Pontius pilate’ moment as it appears to be washing its hands of the incoming “Frankenstein” monster power units incoming next year. Their man Nikolas Tombazis has offered the F1 teams the opportunity to retain the current hybrids before transitioning to more traditional V10 layouts in 2-3 years time… READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
