The Japanese Grand Prix proved to be another false dawn for the Mercedes AMG Formula One team. Both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton hailed the improvements in the W15 car during practice, but as is becoming a worrying trend come qualifying and the race the car was at best the fifth quickest in the field.
Fernando Alonso once again proved his powers are at their peak hauling his Aston Martin onto fifth place at the start. Having lost FP2 to rain, the teams had little long run simulation data and the front running teams had saved different tyre allocations for the race.

Mercedes backed the hard tyre
Mercedes had saved two sets of hards for their drivers while Ferrari opted to keep a pair of mediums for their race and so strategy was always going to see a mix up of tyre offsets and pit stop timings. However it was the lap one red flag caused by Daniel Ricciardo taking out Alex Albon which proved to be critical.
This gave Mercedes the option of fitting their drivers with the hard tyre compound and attempt the one stop strategy. Ferrari persisted with the medium tyre and set Charles Leclerc the task of running further than the competition to gain track position before making his final stop.
Ferrari are a team transformed under the leadership of Fred Vasseur. Gone are the confused radio messages and arguments over strategy and there is a new found calmness. They refused to be thrown from their plan by Mercedes and even when George Russell pitted out of sequence Ferrari held firm sticking with their race strategy.
Lacking in pace, Lewis Hamilton asked the team “shall I let George through?” which he did then soon after the seven times world champion demanded, “you’ve got to change the strategy.”
Russell forces Piastri wide
Mercedes finally decided the one stop [post red flag] strategy was not the way to go, giving George and Lewis fresh rubber late in the race. Hamilton trailed home in P9, while a late charging George Russell hunted down Oscar Piastri claiming P7 as the McLaren driver made a mistake starting the last lap of the race.
A lap earlier Russell had made a lunge at the chicane forcing Piastri wide, through the Australian retained the position. When asked about the move Russell admitted it was a risky manoeuvre.
“It was a late move from my side – down the inside – made contact… I think there was enough room for us both to stay on the track. I think I would’ve been a little more upset had I finished the race behind him. In the end nothing gained nothing lost from my part.”
Then to the debate over the Mercedes tyre strategy. Russell backed the team’s decision and reflected starting after the Red Flag on the hard tyre gave them the flexibility to do one or two stops. “If you’d started on the medium after the Red Flag you’re committed to the two stop,” he said.
Hamilton: “medium tyre was much better”
Hamilton completely disagreed with his team mate speaking to assembled media he said: “We still had two really terrible hard tyres to run through so… I think I picked up a bit of damage at the beginning with Charles, he came round the outside and I had huge understeer for the first stint. I couldn’t turn the car – thats why I let George by.”
When pressed on whether the team should’ve taken the Ferrari route on race tyres, Lewis was candid: “The hard tyre was pretty bad as I said, the medium tyre was much better – so for sure in hindsight it looks as though we should have had two [sets of] medium tyres.”
George hinted the team should’ve issued team orders during the opening laps of the race as he was stuck behind Hamilton and falling back from the battles ahead.
“It was a challenging first stint I was stuck behind Lewis – I think he was struggling a bit with there front – art wold have been good to be in that fight ahead because after the first pit stop I think we were line on line with Lando and Charles ahead.”
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Russell believes the pack behind Red Bull are close and that Mercedes have suffered with the last three Grand Prix circuits not suiting their car. “I think China and the tracks coming up will suit us better than the last three,” said Russell.
“I think when you look how close the three different manufacturers are – with Oscar and Fernando within a couple of seconds., Its extremely close and its going to come down to qualifying.
Whoever manages to qualify at the front of that pack will finish at the front,” concluded Russell.
The Mercedes tyre debate continued after the chequered flag with Toto Wolff being asked whether his team had got it wrong.
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Wolff unimpressed
“We ended up where we started, I think it was just very difficult. We had a second stint and a third stint that was super quick – racing for a podium [pace] – but an atrocious first stint. We need to find out what it was…. Were we over managing?” Asked the Mercedes boss.
Questioned over the wisdom of electing to one stop, Wolff stayed firm: “I think it was the right thing to do at the beginning because it looked pretty stable in terms of lap times they weren’t pulling away too much and then it suddenly dropped [and we were] two seconds a lap and then two and a half seconds a lap – but then it was clear it wouldn’t last.”
“I think it was a [better weekend] than it looks with the final result and also in qualifying. There’s lots that we have learned and its going to get better from here.”
Toto was having no truck with the debate over which circuits are best for the W15 retorting: “We need to be quick at all the circuits.
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Collins criticises Hamilton viewpoint
“There’s no excuse over track layout we’ve just gotta sort it out and thats why you know I said this is life testing for us. We’ve changed things massively – it isn’t reflected in the result but…. I think the car is becoming quicker,” concluded Wolff.
Ex-Aston Martin strategists and Sky pundit, Bernie Collins believes Lewis Hamilton’s view of his team’s strategic performance is “skewed.”
“They [Mercedes] will be disappointed with what happened in the race. I think Lewis’ is a little bit skewed by the fact in the first stint after the Red Flag. He was on the hard and overtaken by George on the same tyre, likely on the same fuel load.
“That never feels great from a drivers’ point of view. He then says. The medium felt the best at the end – of course it does. Its the lightest the car has been, its the best the track’s been, so whatever tyre you fit will feel great.
Hamilton ‘can’t know that’
Collins refused to bend when pressed on Hamilton’s claim the medium tyre would have been better to for the first stint.
“Not necessarily. That’s subjective. If he’d had a medium stint at the start we could compare then maybe… well we don’t have that.”
George Russell mentioned the track specific nature of the W15 more than once this weekend. He clearly hopes Mercedes will go better at the Shanghai circuit in two weeks time. But as a ‘front end limited’ track with huge wear on the front left tyre – due to the never ending turn 1 – it is the Ferrari car which comes alive when the nature of a track is described as ‘front limited.’
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
