The consensus preached by the Formula One media is that now we have had two years of the new ground effect regulations, the differing performance between the teams will begin to converge.

The argument is based on the law of diminishing returns which in F1 terms means it requires there are fewer things Red Bull can do to continue their increase in performance than for the rest of the field who learn what Red Bull already know.

 

 

 

Verstappen targets just 10 wins in 2024

Max Verstappen has articulated that he believes both he and his Red Bull team will find it more difficult to be as dominant as they were in 2023. Winning 19 of the 22 races, the triple world champion has surpassed Sebastian Vettel’s number of career wins and now sits third in the all time list with 54 victories, more than half of Hamiltons 104 total which he has racked up over 17 years in F1.

“I don’t know what improvements we can have in 2024, not so much in terms of victories, but from the point of view of the development of the car,” Verstappen told media at the FIA Gala event.

“In my opinion, it would be a success if we managed to improve the car and fight for the title, even by winning only 10 races. It would be fine anyway.

“We have the aim of growing, also because the competition will increase next season.”

Hamilton claims silenced: “he’s wrong about Red Bull”

 

 

 

Hamilton concerned over gap

Yet there is a problem to the theory that the rest of the F1 field will close the gap to Red Bull in 2024 and Lewis Hamilton articulated this well after the final race of 2023.

“For Red Bull to win [in Abu Dhabi] by 17 seconds in the end, and they haven’t developed their car since August is definitely a concern.

“But we’ve learned a lot about the car and it’s just down to the team now. They know what they need to do. Whether or not we’ll get there, we’ll see.”

It could be that Red Bull already has a sufficient level of dominance over the field that even if they have a diminished increase in performance over the others, it could still be enough to win a lot of races.

Hamilton sidelined as F1 boss names top 3 drivers

 

 

 

F1 boss cautious over Red Bull claims

Further, given that ground effect downforce designed cars was banned in F1 from 1982, no one really knows the depth of knowledge which can be attained in improving the current F1 cars. It could be Red Bull have only discovered in two years a quarter of the potential ground effect secrets to be unlocked.

If this is the case. The law of diminishing returns may not kick in for several more years to come.

Former team boss Giancarlo Minardi, who sold his team to Dietrich Mateschitz to become the Red Bull junior team then known as Toro Rosso, admits he has heard on the grapevine that Red Bull could in fact be even more dominant next season. Minardi is the president of the FIA’s single seater commission.

When asked if Red Bull would be less dominant he told Gazzetta hello Sport, “Everyone says yes, that they will be.vBut I would wait a little bit to say that.

Verstappen puts foot down over Marko departure

 

 

 

Max didn’t show his best in 2023

“They have an advantage that at this moment I think is difficult to bridge. Because analysing the 2023 races well, I’ve gotten the idea that Verstappen has never shown us the best of his ability.

“And that doesn’t give us much hope. And then from England I get reports that their 2024 car is even better.”

Of course McLaren demonstrated how giant leaps in performance were possible following their dismal start to 2023 which saw them score just 17 points in the first third of the year. Then their upgraded car first seen in Austria was a revelation.

Had the Woking based F1 squad scored at the same rate over the first 8 races as they did over the last 16, they would have been in the fight for second place with Mercedes and Ferrari.

FIA plans could see F1 cars 5 seconds slower

 

 

 

Qualifying tighter than ever

The encouraging signs are there that certainly in qualifying the pack is tighter than ever in the history of Formula One. Q1 in Abu Dhabi saw all the competitors covered by less than one second, which is truly remarkable.

In reality the field was even tighter if we exclude Max Verstappen who topped the session and was 0.3 seconds clear of Charles Leclerc in second place.

However it was the ability of the Red Bull car to manage its tyres during the race that gave Max his huge advantage. Even when he failed to start up front, the Dutch driver would carve his way through the field as the tyres on the competition began to fade.

F1 boss refuses to accept rule change

 

 

 

Singapore glimmer of hope

The only glimmer of hope for the competition was in Singapore when Reed Bull failed to get qualifying right and Verstappen started in P11. Even then a win could have been on the cars had the team made a different choice under the safety car and pitted their drivers for fresh rubber.

At the restart Perez and Verstappen were easily passed and fell back to fifteenth and eighteenth after stopping for tyres, though Max recovered to fifth and was just 21 seconds off the race winner.

If Verstappen had been holding back as Minardi suggests and Red Bull have found another big performance step, then who knows whether Max and the team can break even the records they set during the season just gone.

 

 

 

Jean Todt joins F1 criticism of FIA president

The first FIA president for over half a century who is not from a Formula One background is taking some heat at present but unlike his predecessor, Mohamed Ben Sulayem appears up for the fight. The recent spat between the Wolff’s and the FIA served only to reveal there is a concerted effort amongst senior F1 figures to discredit and even potentially remove the president of their sport’s governing body.

Clearly Liberty Media, fronted up by Stefano Domenicali, is upset with Ben Sulayem for a number of reasons most recently because of the headache they now face over how to handle the Andretti F1 team. The FIA conducted a “rigorous” process and decided the American bid to be the eleventh team on the grid was worthy, clearly upsetting most of the teams and FOM too…. READ MORE