When the flag drops (at least some of) the bullshit stops. Australia’s round of Formula 1 Grand Prix racing can be checked of the list. It is done, and it is over.
About a week ago I wrote an article about an “objective” way to measure fans’ expectance: the wonderfull world of betting. Here the follow up on that article. Please remember: I am NOT a betting person. I do NOT want to get you started on betting. Betting can kill, Betting seriously harms you and others around you, Betters die younger, Betting blocks the arteries and causes heart attack or cerebral hemorrhage… Well, some of that may definitely be somewhat true.
Just to repeat: below you will find the odds for bets you can place. I am comparing 2 sites. The odds are not 100% comparable, since 1 bets firmly on whether a driver becomes world champion, and another bets for world champion, but also returns an amount if the driver just misses the top-spot and makes it to second or third place.
Here goes:
2017 Driver championship
| Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 2.05 | 0 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 1.375 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 8 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 16 | 17 | 1 |
| Max Verstappen | 20 | 21 | -1 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 28 | 26 | 0 |
| Felipe Massa | 500 | 501 | 0 |
| Fernando Alonso | 500 | 501 | 0 |
| Lance Stroll | 1500 | 1501 | 0 |
| Carlos Sainz | 1500 | 1501 | 0 |
| Sergio Perez | 2000 | 1501 | 2 |
| Romain Grosjean | 2000 | 1501 | 6 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 2000 | 2001 | -2 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 2000 | 2001 | -2 |
| Daniil Kvyat | 2000 | 2001 | 1 |
| Jolyon Palmer | 2500 | 2501 | -2 |
| Esteban Ocon | 2500 | 2501 | -2 |
| Kevin Magnussen | 2500 | 2501 | -1 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 5000 | 5001 | 0 |
| Marcus Ericsson | 5000 | 5001 | 0 |
I sorted the drivers on the odds of column 1 and then column 2 (two separate betting offices: not naming names) The third column is the driver’s relative position compared to last week’s exercise.
Highlights: “we” think Kimi will do better in the end than Max. The Ferrari’s showed themselves strong the weekend.
Perez and Grosjean are expected to do quite well (Grosjean certainly seems to have made an impression, he makes a 6 position jump!) are moved up the order.
Kyvat fared well with his performance, and was awarded a place up.
It is surprising Alonso did not move down the ladder after Australia’s debacle. We also still think it is still a safe bet that both Sauber drivers will be last.
For the Constructor’s Worldchampionship:
| Mercedes | 0.57 | 1.55 |
| Ferrari | 1.63 | 2.60 |
| Red Bull | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| Williams | 500.00 | 501.00 |
| McLaren | 750.00 | 751.00 |
| Renault | 1000.00 | 1001.00 |
| Force India | 1000.00 | 1001.00 |
| Haas | 2000.00 | 2001.00 |
| Toro Rosso | 2000.00 | 1501.00 |
| Sauber | 5000.00 | 2501.00 |
No surprises here, nothing changed since last time. The odds for Mercedes becoming champion have gotten stronger. (ie. Bet more, gain less) Sauber: stiff last. Aren’t we underestimating the Torro Rosso’s?
So how will the points be split in China?
| Lewis Hamilton | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 1.625 | 2.4 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 6.5 | 8 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 9 | 8 |
| Max Verstappen | 20 | 21 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 25 | 23 |
| Felipe Massa | 200 | 201 |
| Carlos Sainz | 300 | 301 |
| Sergio Perez | 500 | 301 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 500 | 401 |
| Daniil Kvyat | 500 | 751 |
| Romain Grosjean | 750 | 501 |
| Esteban Ocon | 750 | 1001 |
| Lance Stroll | 1000 | 751 |
| Kevin Magnussen | 1000 | 1001 |
| Fernando Alonso | 1500 | 1001 |
| Jolyon Palmer | 2000 | 1501 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 2000 | 2001 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 3000 | 3001 |
| Marcus Ericsson | 3000 | 3001 |
Surprising here is that we expect to see Alonso further down the line than what we see in the championship. So we think it is reasonable that McLaren-Honda will pick up pace later on in the season.
I don’t get why you have someone who thinks anyone who bets is going to die doing an article about betting. There is actually interesting observations that can be made about betting markets but it might take someone with knowledge and an interest in it to produce something worthwhile.
What a load of mis-spelled bollocks that first paragraph is. Do you guys imagine that’s a good way to start an article that people interested in the betting market might read?
Hi Optional,
I am writing this series from the “we, the people, think/expect” angle. You guessed right I am not a betting person. Betting is a thing a lot of governments allow. Even in France, where I live, betting is allowed. Contents of my articles are usually an expression of how I think, and you clearly have another opinion. No problem, I would even like to see that as an opportunity. I would invite you to contact me so you can spice up a next article: I could write, you can comment, or we could even co-write.
EJM