Bookies favour Kimi over Max, Ferrari looking good

· by · in F1 Odds Analysis. ·

When the flag drops (at least some of) the bullshit stops. Australia’s round of Formula 1 Grand Prix racing can be checked of the list. It is done, and it is over.

About a week ago I wrote an article about an “objective” way to measure fans’ expectance: the wonderfull world of betting. Here the follow up on that article. Please remember: I am NOT a betting person. I do NOT want to get you started on betting. Betting can kill, Betting seriously harms you and others around you, Betters die younger, Betting blocks the arteries and causes heart attack or cerebral hemorrhage… Well, some of that may definitely be somewhat true.

Just to repeat: below you will find the odds for bets you can place. I am comparing 2 sites. The odds are not 100% comparable, since 1 bets firmly on whether a driver becomes world champion, and another bets for world champion, but also returns an amount if the driver just misses the top-spot and makes it to second or third place.

Here goes:

2017 Driver championship

Lewis Hamilton 1 2.05 0
Sebastian Vettel 1.375 2.1 0
Valtteri Bottas 8 9.5 0
Kimi Raikkonen 16 17 1
Max Verstappen 20 21 -1
Daniel Ricciardo 28 26 0
Felipe Massa 500 501 0
Fernando Alonso 500 501 0
Lance Stroll 1500 1501 0
Carlos Sainz 1500 1501 0
Sergio Perez 2000 1501 2
Romain Grosjean 2000 1501 6
Stoffel Vandoorne 2000 2001 -2
Nico Hulkenberg 2000 2001 -2
Daniil Kvyat 2000 2001 1
Jolyon Palmer 2500 2501 -2
Esteban Ocon 2500 2501 -2
Kevin Magnussen 2500 2501 -1
Pascal Wehrlein 5000 5001 0
Marcus Ericsson 5000 5001 0

I sorted the drivers on the odds of column 1 and then column 2 (two separate betting offices: not naming names) The third column is the driver’s relative position compared to last week’s exercise.

Highlights: “we” think Kimi will do better in the end than Max. The Ferrari’s showed themselves strong the weekend.

Perez and Grosjean are expected to do quite well (Grosjean certainly seems to have made an impression, he makes a 6 position jump!) are moved up the order.

Kyvat fared well with his performance, and was awarded a place up.

It is surprising Alonso did not move down the ladder after Australia’s debacle. We also still think it is still a safe bet that both Sauber drivers will be last.

For the Constructor’s Worldchampionship:

Mercedes 0.57 1.55
Ferrari 1.63 2.60
Red Bull 14.00 15.00
Williams 500.00 501.00
McLaren 750.00 751.00
Renault 1000.00 1001.00
Force India 1000.00 1001.00
Haas 2000.00 2001.00
Toro Rosso 2000.00 1501.00
Sauber 5000.00 2501.00

No surprises here, nothing changed since last time. The odds for Mercedes becoming champion have gotten stronger. (ie. Bet more, gain less) Sauber: stiff last. Aren’t we underestimating the Torro Rosso’s?

So how will the points be split in China?

Lewis Hamilton 1.2 2.3
Sebastian Vettel 1.625 2.4
Valtteri Bottas 6.5 8
Kimi Raikkonen 9 8
Max Verstappen 20 21
Daniel Ricciardo 25 23
Felipe Massa 200 201
Carlos Sainz 300 301
Sergio Perez 500 301
Nico Hulkenberg 500 401
Daniil Kvyat 500 751
Romain Grosjean 750 501
Esteban Ocon 750 1001
Lance Stroll 1000 751
Kevin Magnussen 1000 1001
Fernando Alonso 1500 1001
Jolyon Palmer 2000 1501
Stoffel Vandoorne 2000 2001
Pascal Wehrlein 3000 3001
Marcus Ericsson 3000 3001

Surprising here is that we expect to see Alonso further down the line than what we see in the championship. So we think it is reasonable that McLaren-Honda will pick up pace later on in the season.

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2 responses to “Bookies favour Kimi over Max, Ferrari looking good”

  1. I don’t get why you have someone who thinks anyone who bets is going to die doing an article about betting. There is actually interesting observations that can be made about betting markets but it might take someone with knowledge and an interest in it to produce something worthwhile.

    What a load of mis-spelled bollocks that first paragraph is. Do you guys imagine that’s a good way to start an article that people interested in the betting market might read?

  2. Hi Optional,

    I am writing this series from the “we, the people, think/expect” angle. You guessed right I am not a betting person. Betting is a thing a lot of governments allow. Even in France, where I live, betting is allowed. Contents of my articles are usually an expression of how I think, and you clearly have another opinion. No problem, I would even like to see that as an opportunity. I would invite you to contact me so you can spice up a next article: I could write, you can comment, or we could even co-write.

    EJM

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