Force India

Why Sauber will fall back in 2013

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Not a lot to choose between them

The mid table teams can yo-yo around quite a lot, and I’ve heard many F1 drivers in retirement rue various decisions made to switch teams. Last year Force India finished the season on 69 points and Sauber with just over half as many points on 44. Here is the final table for 2011 and where we are in 2012 right now.

Final Table 2011 3 races to go 2012
1 Red Bull 650 1 Red Bull 407
2 McLaren 497 2 Ferrari 316
3 Ferrari 3
75		 3 McLaren 306
4 Mercedes 165 4 Lotus 263
5 Lotus 73 5 Mercedes 136
6 Force India 69 6 Sauber 116
7 Sauber 44 7 Force India 93
8 Torro Rosso 41 8 Williams 59
9 Williams 5 9 Torro Rosso 21

Quite an interesting read. Although the season is not yet finished there could be a switch between McLaren and Ferrari, but based on the past several races it’s unlikely the others will change. Having said that Mercedes are not developing the car at all and given a couple of very strong results from Sauber they could yet overtake them.

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Lauda gives Brawn vote of confidence, Barichello wants back in F1, Lauda lectures Webber, Major sandstorm Abu Dhabi, F. India reject pay drivers

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Torro Rosso unchanged driver paring for 2013: It’s a busy day for news – my fingers can’t keep up. Anyway sacking both their drivers last year and then amusingly producing a fairly woeful car, it was inevitable that the Italian Red Bull team would announce no change in their driver line up for 2013. There’s not reallt a lot to say about this, other than what I’ve said already. If I can think of something to say I’ll add it later or if anyone else has ideas please feel free to comment. End of announcement!

FIA Press Conference Shedule: Abu Dhabi

DATE TIME GUEST
Thursday, Nov 01 1500 hrs Jenson Button (McLaren)
Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)
Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
Vitaly Petrov (Caterham)
Charles Pic (Marussia)
Daniel Ricciardo (Toro Rosso)———————————
Friday, Nov 02 1900 hrs Ross Brawn (Mercedes)
Antonio Cuquerella (HRT)
Pat Fry (Ferrari)
Andrew Green (Force India)
Remi Taffin (Renault Sport F1)

Wow, Pat Fry – there isn’t a chance in hell the row over upgrades with Alonso and the near miss F1 2012 twittergate #3 won’t be mentioned. Force India appear to be turning up a week late, but Andrew Green predictably not be able to confirm anything about Nico’s replacement as the list of candidates is still growing. Petrov, Pic and Ricciardo will be the naughty boys on the back row. Hopefully someone will ask Ross about his relationship with ‘Lord Lauda’. Poor Antonio will be quizzed as to whether the cars have been to Kwik Fit for some new brakes. Kamui will need tissues as its likely to be his last appearance at such an event and most people won’t even know who Remi Taffin is (something to do with V6 2014 engines).

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Hulkenberg refuses contract extension, Webber walks out of FIA conference, Sutil to return to Force India, Ecclestone refutes he’s being replaced,

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Indian GP attendance down 1/3rd: The drivers gave a thumbs-up to the 5.14 kilometre track enjoying the challenge of the layout and the teams and media hailed the clean paddock and the facilities sported a completed look that was not the case last year. However, no one could avoid the dip in the numbers of fans, the most important constituent of any sport, as 65,000 of them turned up for Sunday’s race down from last year’s 95,000.

Mr. E is of course not worried, “First races are always high and the second year goes down. If the third year isn’t going up, then it’s something to worry about”, he jocularly observed “We have a [another] competitor here. What’s the name of that game? Cricket?”, suggesting F1 has a way to go to make an impression on the Indian sporting psyche.

Indian motor sports federation chief Vicky Chandhok reiterated the same three-year cycle and predicted a bigger turnout in 2013. “Formula One is like this only. This is the trend everywhere. From third race onwards, you’d see some kind of stability. Overall, it has been a huge improvement from last year”.

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Indian GP Review: Newey to Ferrari? Less races for Europe? Bernie’s birthday bash, Alonso’s dig at Vettel

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The news stories together with post race thoughts following the interviews. First some news…

Less races for Europe: Whilst Bernie is usually newsworthy and highly entertaining, he is either actually becoming senile – or I am just sick and tired of his monotonous monologue on a certain subject. The race calendar and new circuits. We were told in an interview on SKY that Europe will be losing another 3 races on Friday, and then on Sunday according to Mr. E France and the Paul Ricard is close a 7 year deal.

Then after Nurburgring telling us they have a contract for an extended race deal, Ecclestone  contradicts this, “Yes, there are negotiations with Hockenheim about the race in 2013,” (Wirtschaftswoch).

I’m getting really bored with the silly track in/out game.

Bernie’s birthday bash: There was an unassuming gathering for champagne at breakfast on race day. Most team principals were there but only 2 drivers popped in – Grosjean and Hamilton.

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Schumacher says he may leave Switzerland, Vijay ducks Indian GP press conference, Hungarian GP in negotiations, Honda no chance for 2014

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Indian GP, Race Strategy: For a full track characteristics overview and Indian GP race strategy report, no one does it better than James Allen on his F1 News site (http://connect.jamesallenonf1.com). Includes: form guide, weather forecast, likely tyre perfomance, pit stop strategy, chance of safety car, start performance table and pit stop table plus comment from one of F1’s most experienced specialist observers.

Press Conference Lists for Indian GP: Friday lineup looks more exciting than Thursday. Kimi the only top driver – and to say he’s concise would be an understatement. Vijay Mallya is conspicuous by his absence as fears over mass Kingfisher staff demonstrations have grown. (Force India: How the tower of cards will collapse)

DATE TIME GUEST
Thursday, October 25 1500 hrs Nico Hulkenberg (Force India)
Narain Karthikeyan (HRT)
Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham)
Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
Bruno Senna (Williams)
Jean–Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso)
Friday, October 26 1600 hrs Cyril Abiteboul (Caterham)
Eric Boullier (Lotus)
Stefano Domenicali (Ferrari)
Christian Horner (Red Bull)
Monisha Kaltenborn (Sauber)
Martin Whitmarsh (McLaren)
Saturday, October 27 Post Qualifying * Three fastest Drivers from Qualifying
Sunday, October 28 Post Race * First three finishing Drivers

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BIC promoters only expecting half a crowd, Kingfisher employees to disrupt F1, Discord not Concorde in Paris, 1st Lap of COTA more F1 News

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FIA meeting today: Press release 18:05 GMT – “During a constructive meeting, Jean Todt, the FIA President, in co-operation with Bernie Ecclestone, the Commercial Rights Holder, has presented to all F1 Team Principals the new structure of governance, including the new conditions of entry for the Concorde Agreement, starting in 2013. All the participants in the meeting were encouraged to seek clarification which resulted in a fruitful and helpful debate on how the new structure would operate in 2013 and beyond. A further important step has been achieved today to secure the future of the F1 World Championship which should lead to a final settlement to be reached between the FIA, the Commercial Rights Holder and the Teams in the coming weeks. (FIA.com)

On the agenda. The FIA is insisting on only 6 teams, Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Williams and Lotus to be part of the F1 Commision going forward. There were clarifications requested by the teams on the definition of customer cars and particularly the provision of 2014 engines. Renault has refused to increase the number of customers it supplies engines and with Cosworth up for sale this leaves Marrusia and HRT possibly without engines. Renault are objecting to the lack of competitiveness of these teams car designs, saying it is bad for their brand. A solution mooted is for them to buy a customer car from a larger team and then have an engine supplied.

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A Race with over 300 cars, Lotus developing 3 cars at once, Mallya’s license suspended, more F1 News….

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Mallya: The judge13 has been following more closely than elsewhere the events unfolding that affect the Indian owner of Force India. Having sold a chunk of the Kingfisher empire this week, paid overdue airport dues and had the warrant for arrest withdrawn, Mallya has now had his airline license withdrawn. The suspension signalled the regulator’s lack of patience with Kingfisher after months of cancelled flights and staff walkouts, and marked a rare tough stance by the government against a high-profile corporate (Reuters)

The move had been widely expected after Kingfisher failed to respond properly to queries from the regulator regarding its ability to provide a “safe, efficient and reliable service”. The airline has never made a profit since its inception in 2004, and a well know airline commentator suggests it could take $1bn to turn Kingfisher Airlines around. (Force India: How the card tower will collapse)

Max Mosely: A very plausible and knowledgeable guest on the Sky F1 show admitted the expose of his by the News of the World of ‘spankgate’ weakened his hand in pushing through cost reforms.  In 2003 Mosely, then head of the FIA, cancelled the use of special qualifying cars and engines in a move to level the playing field for the competing F1 teams. He instigated a ‘parc ferme’ following qualifying that meant the teams could not change engines and other components designed to provide ultra 1 lap speed but not be capable of lasting the full race distance.

In 2008-9 Mosely was trying force the teams to agree to a cost cap on expenditure, and Ferrari in particular were refusing to comply, there were threats of a breakaway series and Moseley admits he should have faced them down as he did in 2003. The reason he gave for avoiding all out confrontation was that Williams and Ferrari in particular had supported Mosely during the highly embarrassing matter of ‘spankgate’ and he felt he owed them for this loyalty. So Max agreed not to stand for re-election and the fudged Resource Restriction Agreement was accepted, something Mosely now admits is not working.

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Mallya forced to relinquish Control, Ecclestone U-turn, Tooned Cancelled, Sky F1 reporting gets even worse

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London GP: Ecclestone says the race is off that was never on. London – city or Olympic Park http://www.cityam.com/sport/central-london-grand-prix-says-ecclestone. I love how he then goes to great lengths to explain why it would be cost efficient and a great idea though. Maybe this undying enthusiasm for pointless ideas and lost causes is how Mokpo not Seoul ended up with the Korean GP (South Korea, Ecclestone and The Emporer’s New Clothes)

Tooned: is cancelled due to Lewis leaving the team – so for the rest of this year at least. Would love to see it return with Jenson and Perez next year. Perez character could be based on being a relative of my childhood favourite cartoon, Speedy Gonzales, a very very fast mexican mouse. For those of you who’ve never had the pleasure…(YouTube). If you enjoyed that and want a free box set worth of them…(YouTube). More importantly Tooned is a way of attracting kids interest in F1 and was a good idea. I think they should just do a best mates breakup story about Lewis and Jenson anyway. My best mate aged 22 didn’t speak to me for a year – its life.

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Force India: How the tower of cards could collapse

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Over the past few days I’ve been asked many times and seen people enquiring on various F1 websites as to how much is an F1 team worth. Of course the answer is simple, different teams are worth vastly different amounts. An F1 team is a business venture – registered with a legal identity independent of any rich owner and subject to the business regulations from the statutory authority where they are registered.

 Valuing a business

The way business ventures are valued is highly complex and sector/performance specific. There was old 3 times profit rule that was a fundamental when I studied Finance many years ago. Yet even this most simplistic valuation methodology is fraught with danger when you dig deeper. Is that profit before or after asset depreciation, asset goodwill, taxation, one off accounting entries of substance – I could go on..and on..and on…

I guess my favourite methodology which can be proved beyond doubt and its an old adage, which says “The value of something is best measured by how much someone is actually prepared to.”

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Mallya lives in opulence whilst unpaid staff starve and commit suicide

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Thejudge13 reported last week that a family member of Kingfisher airlines staff was reported to have committed suicide due to financial ruin by Indian police (link)

Vijay Mallya’s Kingfisher airlines have been grounded now for 2 weeks and are on the brink of financial ruin: “The Economic Times” (click on search, put in “Kingfisher” and you’ll see a number of articles over the past few months), Police said last week that the wife of an employee who had not been paid since March committed suicide last week due to the stress of financial ruin. Before the Japanese GP staff were demonstrating as they had not been paid for months and this lead to violent confrontation.

Airline start up

The history of airline start up’s in the past 50 years is littered with failure. Around 9/10 fail owing hundreds of millions of dollars. The problem is not in the early days, as the entrepreneur identifies a few profitable routes, invests about 50% required and gets the project off the ground. Where the issues begin is when they wish to expand. Due to initial success they find financial backers prepared to put up vast sums of money for their expansion.

Each route they take on is incrementally less profitable and it only takes a dip in trade for a short time for them to struggle to generate enough cash to pay the interest on the loans. In the case of Kingfisher airlines they owe $billions.

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