Formula One is paying the price in 2026 for its love of Arabian oil money. Despite the four Middle Eastern rounds having on average some of the smallest crowds in attendance, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi’s hosting fees make up almost 25% of the revenue received from the promoters of the 24 races scheduled each year.
When Israel and the US began bombing in Iran back in February, the planned Pirelli tyre test in Bahrain was just two days away from commencing. It was cancelled along with the Saudi Arabian and Bahrain Grand Prix as missiles rained down across the region.
The commercial rights holders of F1 must guarantee the teams and the broadcasters a minimum of 22 Grand Prix weekends a year, otherwise substantial refunds running into hundreds of millions of dollars become payable. So the Bahrain GP was reinstated and hosted by Malaysia in between the planned races in Baku and Singapore.
Uncertainty remains over whether the final two rounds of the 2026 calendar will be completed in Qatar and Abu Dhabi given daily attacks continue by the Iranians on vessels in the Persian Gulf. Last week the rebels in Yemen attacked the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia with a supersonic missile which injured more than 200 and caused 13 fatalities.
So the region is clearly not safe. The question is why does F1 persist with the illusion the season will finish on the shores of the highly volatile Persian Gulf? Part of the reason is cash. The hosts will be required to pay up their hosting fees whether or not F1 is able to race there. F1 contracts usually have Force Majeure exclusions meaning unexpected events often described as “an act of God” are no reason for the agreement to become null and void.
F1 Leadership Defensiveness and Logistics
So the myth that F1 will go racing will continue until the last minute possible. Pirelli are set to dispatch the tyres required by the end of October. They are shipped from the factories in Turkey and will cross the eastern Mediterranean before travelling by land across Saudi Arabia to their final destinations in Qatar and the UAE.
During a press conference two weeks ago in Malaysia, F1’s CEO – Stefano Domenicali – addressed the end-of-season concerns. Replying to a question, he confirmed: ”Yes, as we’ve already said, the calendar is confirmed: the last two Grands Prix will be in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. This is the direction we’ve taken based on the information and reassurances we have – and which we absolutely must have, of course. It’s the strategy we’ll apply until the end of the year.”
When pressed on the matter due to the ongoing hostilities, Domenicali was adamant. “The calendar, as I said, is confirmed, so there are still a few tickets to be sold in Abu Dhabi, so everything is progressing well, and we stay focused on delivering the calendar we promised at the beginning of the year.”
The Imola Alternative and Historical Context
Yet the delusion from F1 is not complete, given temporary grandstands are being erected at a race circuit in Europe. The Imola Circuit, officially called Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari, is readying itself for yet another return to the F1 schedule.
The track first appeared on the F1 schedule as the host for the 1980 Italian Grand Prix. For political reasons, despite the location not being inside San Marino, it was named the San Marino Grand Prix from 1981 to 2006.
The 1994 event saw one of F1’s most tragic moments, when on the Saturday Roland Ratzenberger was killed, then in the Grand Prix Ayrton Senna’s car left the track at the high-speed Tamburello corner, with the Brazilian ace pronounced dead on arrival at the local trauma centre.
F1 moved on, but in 2020 during Covid-19, Imola stepped up to host two Grands Prix in the massively interrupted season. The circuit remained on the calendar until 2025. Yet the motorsport gods have deemed it that Imola will see an F1 race in 2026, given racing in the Middle East is not possible at present.
The Deadline Passes and Fan Uncertainty
“As we discussed during the F1 Commission last Monday, mid-October is the last call for such a decision,” said the Audi team principal Mattia Binotto during a Baku press conference on September 24. Well, D-Day has arrived, but as yet no word from the F1 powers that be.
Sources close to FOM are now suggesting in fact no announcement will be forthcoming, and that the calendar will continue as planned unless otherwise stated. Yet this position is farcical for a number of reasons.
Firstly, the Gulf News reported on last season’s race that international visitors accounted for 231,000 people, representing 68% of the total race week attendance. These individuals have already booked flights, hotels, and paid for expensive tickets. It’s unfair to delay their efforts to obtain refunds unnecessarily.
And then there’s the fact this uncertainty could lead to a massive anticlimax, should the two races be cancelled and replaced by a single event in Imola. We could find ourselves in the situation where Kimi Antonelli is crowned the youngest ever F1 champion driver by a post on social media.
The Mercedes driver may leave the Mexican Grand Prix unconfirmed, but then the loss of the additional 25 points due to two races becoming one could mean it is mathematically impossible for him to be beaten.
With just over seven weeks to go before the scheduled Abu Dhabi season finale, little is going to change in the Middle East. Even if the US midterms saw the Republicans lose the House and the Senate and Trump become impotent in terms of foreign policy, there’s not enough time to settle the range of issues Iran will require as satisfaction.
It’s time for Formula One to make its decision and put the fans out of their misery who are uncertain as to whether their travel plans will be possible.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
At TJ13, Andrew plays a central role in shaping the site’s output, working across breaking news, analysis, and long-form features. Andrew’s responsibilities include fact-checking, refining editorial structure, and ensuring consistency in reporting across a fast-moving news cycle.
Andrew’s work focuses particularly on the intersection of Formula 1 politics, regulation, and team strategy. Andrew closely follows developments involving the FIA, team leadership, and driver market dynamics, helping to provide context behind the sport’s biggest stories.
With experience covering multiple seasons of Formula 1’s modern hybrid era, Andrew has developed a detailed understanding of how regulatory changes and competitive shifts influence the grid. Andrew’s editorial approach prioritises clarity and context, aiming to help readers navigate complex developments within the sport.
In addition to editorial duties, Andrew is particularly interested in how media narratives shape fan perception of Formula 1, and how reporting can balance speed with accuracy in an increasingly digital news environment.
