The powers that be in Formula One remain adamant that the 2026 season will finish with its two rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. This is despite the organisers of the Dakar Rally announcing last week that the January edition of the iconic Dakar Rally will be relocated away from Saudi Arabia.
Carlos Sainz Questions the Calendar
At the US GP, Carlos Sainz questioned the wisdom of going racing in the Middle East, but was quickly silenced. “They seem very convinced that it’s going to go ahead. I think on my personal side, and not speaking as a GPDA, it’s very difficult to be convinced right now because there’s still plenty of things happening in the Middle East,” said the Williams driver at the Thursday press conference.
“And also there is obviously an election that is going to happen in the US and things that are going to happen on the political side of the world that could affect the next month and a half very suddenly. So I think it’s relatively premature to be so convinced,” concluded Sainz.
Within the hour, Williams were forced to issue a statement on Sainz’s behalf, stating that he had full confidence in F1 and the FIA to prioritise safety above all else when making their final determination.
A Wave of Regional Cancellations
Qatar has now stated it will no longer host the Rugby Nations Championship finals in 2028 amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The agreement was believed to be worth some £100m, with the international tournament including those who compete in the Six Nations.
Qatar Airways was set to become the title sponsor for four editions of the competition, although that too is a deal which will fall by the wayside. Reports suggest that Spain and France have offered to step in and host the tournament, although there is no mention as yet of a new title sponsor.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has not just affected the Dakar Rally and the Rugby Nations Cup, but also the AFC Asian Cup, which was scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia later this year, has also been postponed.
MotoGP Faces Disruption in Qatar
This weekend MotoGP will compete at the Lusail Circuit where F1 is scheduled to visit for the penultimate race of the 2026 F1 season. However, reports emerged that some 70% of the riders had voted not to go to Qatar and team Yamaha have pulled out of the event completely.
The Japanese manufacturer cited its existing company-wide travel restrictions following an assessment of the situation in the Middle East. In its official statement, Yamaha said it had not identified sufficient grounds to change its existing company-wide travel restrictions.
A number of riders have reported injuries and Gresini Ducati’s Alex Marquez has withdrawn to undergo surgery on his collarbone and hand, with WorldSBK star Iker Lecuona stepping in as his replacement. The surgery was originally planned for after the end of the season.
Geopolitical Pressures and US Politics
This weekend will prove a litmus test for F1, but the MotoGP riders will be guinea pigs given the latest announcement from Iran. Following the mid-term disaster for President Donald Trump—whose Republican Party lost control of both legislative houses to the Democrats yesterday—it is expected the president will resume strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
Comments made before the elections by Trump suggested the US may deliver a “mini epic fury,” which was the code name for the bombing campaign started back in February which wiped out much of the US missile reserves. The day before the elections, the US bombed Iranian positions with Trump explaining: “They built an anti-aircraft facility. It took them about two months. We watched it get built. As soon as it was completed, we hit it last night.”
Security Concerns and Retaliation Targets
In response to the threats issued by the US, the official Iranian media outlet Fars has responded by publishing a list of potential retaliation targets should the bombing resume. This includes hotels used by F1 and MotoGP, adding another level of complexity to the FIA and FOM’s risk assessment calculations.
The list, titled Zero Hour, reportedly identifies dozens of locations across the Middle East that could become targets if the United States and Israel launch further attacks against Iran.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed today that four oil tankers were destroyed after striking naval mines whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz close to Oman. The US Navy has been offering protected convoys for ships wishing to sail through Hormuz, with none of these having been successfully attacked.
Driver Reactions and Remaining Concerns
Back in September, Max Verstappen was asked for his views on the F1 season finishing with two races in the Middle East.”Normally I am happy to go to Qatar and Abu Dhabi, but you know, when there is a war nearby, and if some of the countries are in conflict with each other, then I think we shouldn’t go,” he told Viaplay. “Then, it doesn’t matter if you have a contract or not, I think. But it’s not up to me.”
As with Carlos Sainz, it appeared Max was asked to revise his publicly expressed views and state he trusted the F1 powers that be. Although in Mexico he again suggested the drivers would need some kind of renewed reassurance. “It mainly depends on what kind of guarantees they can give us and what happens over the coming weeks. You can say now that you’re happy to go there, but you don’t know what will happen next week, because the region is obviously still not entirely stable.”
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
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