Verstappen’s Red Bull contract could still face a 2028 test – Max Verstappen has ended months of speculation by signing a Red Bull contract that runs through the 2030 Formula 1 season, but questions remain over what could happen if the team fails to produce a championship-winning car.
Sky Sports has highlighted 2028 as a potentially important year for Verstappen’s future, while Ferrari could theoretically become an option if Lewis Hamilton leaves the Scuderia.
Red Bull officially confirmed Verstappen’s new deal on August 20, ending uncertainty over whether the four-time world champion would remain with the team beyond his previous 2028 agreement. The new contract keeps him at Red Bull through the end of 2030.
However, the length of the agreement does not necessarily mean Verstappen’s future will never be questioned again. His father, Jos Verstappen, referred at Zandvoort to “contractual agreements” that Red Bull must fulfil if the team wants to retain his son for the duration of the deal.
Red Bull must deliver a championship car
The central issue is performance. Red Bull has struggled to reproduce the dominance it enjoyed during Verstappen’s championship-winning years, while the 2026 regulations have altered the competitive order.
Formula 1’s official analysis noted that Red Bull had dropped to fourth in the competitive pecking order during 2026 and had yet to win a race when Verstappen committed his future to the team.
That makes the development of Red Bull’s future cars particularly important. Sky Sports has speculated that if the team cannot produce a championship-winning machine in 2028, discussions over Verstappen’s options could return despite his long-term contract.
There is no indication that Verstappen is currently seeking a way out. In fact, his own explanation for remaining at Red Bull was strongly supportive of the team, with the Dutchman saying: “I don’t need to drive in another colour.”
Mercedes and McLaren links have faded
The latest agreement also closes the door, at least for now, on the intense speculation surrounding Verstappen’s potential move to Mercedes or McLaren.
Before signing the extension, Verstappen’s management had held talks with McLaren, while Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff had also been interested in securing the Dutchman. Sky Sports reported that Verstappen’s previous agreement contained performance-related exit clauses that could potentially have allowed him to leave before 2028.
Those possibilities have effectively been removed by the new Red Bull commitment, although the exact contractual mechanisms governing the 2030 deal have not been publicly disclosed.
Could Ferrari become an option?
Sky Sports has also raised Ferrari as a theoretical alternative should Verstappen’s relationship with Red Bull deteriorate in the future.
Much would depend on Lewis Hamilton’s situation. Sky Sports currently understands that Hamilton is contracted to Ferrari through 2027 and has a unilateral option for 2028.
If Hamilton were to leave before or after that option becomes relevant, Ferrari could potentially have an opening. Verstappen alongside Charles Leclerc would represent one of the most formidable driver pairings imaginable.
For now, however, that scenario remains speculative. There is no evidence that Ferrari is preparing a move for Verstappen, nor that Verstappen is considering one.
2028 could become the real benchmark
The more immediate question is therefore not whether Verstappen will leave Red Bull, but whether Red Bull can give him a car capable of fighting for another world championship.
Verstappen has made clear that winning remains central to his ambitions, while his decision to stay indicates that he believes Red Bull can recover. The team’s new power-unit project and the development of its future cars will therefore carry enormous significance.
If Red Bull returns to the front, Verstappen’s 2030 commitment could become the foundation for another successful era. If it does not, however, the same performance concerns that previously fuelled speculation could eventually return.
For now, Verstappen is staying. But the real test of the Red Bull partnership may come long before 2030.
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
