After Ferrari’s first win since Carlos Sainz in Mexico 2024, the Scuderia were riding high following Lewis Hamilton’s victory in Barcelona. Expectations in Italy are massive for the coming weekend in Austria, yet the scarlet team and their seven-time champion were nowhere following the practice sessions.
Antonelli Pushes Mercedes to the Limit
Kimi Antonelli ended Friday at the Austrian GP with the headline time, but telemetry from Spielberg suggests the competitive picture is far more complicated than a simple Mercedes advantage. The Italian rookie topped both practice sessions at the Red Bull Ring, ending FP2 with a 1m07.014s—two tenths clear of Oscar Piastri and just over three tenths ahead of Lando Norris. While that makes Mercedes the obvious Friday benchmark, deeper data points to a car that may have been running much closer to its performance ceiling than its rivals.
The Red Bull Ring is a brutally revealing layout. Long full-throttle sections, heavy braking zones, traction exits, and a sweeping final sector mean confidence translates directly to lap time. In that context, Antonelli’s lap was extremely committed, topping Sector 1 (16.627s) and Sector 3 (20.346s). However, Norris claimed the fastest middle sector at 29.995s, proving McLaren is not lacking fundamental balance.
Aerodynamic Efficiency vs. Engine Modes
The clearest strength for Mercedes came via aerodynamic efficiency. Antonelli hit 328 km/h on the straight—second only to Liam Lawson at 330 km/h—suggesting the W16 is producing an excellent trade-off between low drag and downforce.
Former F1 driver Jolyon Palmer noted during the FP2 broadcast that Antonelli was making up a major difference through the final corners. However, a warning hides inside that strength: if Mercedes leaned harder on engine modes or aggressive energy deployment on Friday, that gap will vanish when rivals turn up the power for qualifying.
McLaren Lurks as the Genuine Sunday Threat
McLaren looks like the primary challenger to the Silver Arrows, and long-run data suggests they are closer to Mercedes than the headline gap implies. Piastri delivered a highly tidy, balanced lap to finish 0.237s off the lead. Norris was right behind in third despite losing almost all of FP1 to a hydraulic leak. His benchmark Sector 2 is highly significant, as it demands superb rotation and traction through the track’s most technical section.
During the FP2 high-fuel race pace simulations, George Russell and Antonelli set the initial benchmark on medium tyres, but Norris was close behind with a highly stable, low-degradation stint. When track temperatures spike, the McLaren package traditionally comes alive in managing thermal degradation better than their rivals.
Red Bull Sandbagging Amid Upgrade Hurdles
Despite introducing a major upgrade package for their home race, Red Bull did not look ready to dominate the field. Max Verstappen finished fourth, 0.550s off the pace.
Telemetry indicates Verstappen was sacrificing energy deployment early in the lap to recover it later—this may well be a bit of sandbagging, as Red Bull are trying out varying approaches at the circuit to maximize energy deployment. Furthermore, Team Principal Laurent Mekies admitted during the session that the team was wrestling with driveability into and out of Turn 3, hurting their exits down the following crucial straight where passing opportunities arrive into Turn 4.
The Hidden Pace of the Ferrari SF-26
Ferrari entered the weekend under intense scrutiny following their Barcelona form and the anticipated debut of their upgraded power unit, yet Lewis Hamilton finished fifth (0.597s down) and Charles Leclerc finished eighth (0.841s down).
The SF-26 doesn’t look broken, but both drivers were trapped at 323 km/h—a notable 5 km/h deficit to Antonelli. Hamilton explicitly reported “too much understeer” and suffered multiple lock-ups, compromising his entry confidence. If this deficit is down to a cautious engine mode or Friday setup experiments, the Scuderia could make a massive leap on Saturday.
Strategy Outlook: Managing the Heat
The long-run summary, which is questionable given the minimal laps delivered, suggests Mercedes are topping the charts with McLaren tucked in behind. Yet on true longer runs, the championship leaders are likely to suffer much greater thermal degradation and could hand the advantage back to the reigning world champions.
Ferrari and Red Bull appear much of a muchness, and with the Pirelli soft tyre too fragile to race with, as in Barcelona, the medium tyre’s performance will be the key to the best race strategy. If Mercedes have learned anything from their defeat in Catalunya, it will be not to nurse the tyres and maybe opt for a race strategy with one more stop than they would usually consider.
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
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