George Russell is the bookmakers odds on favourite to win the 2026 drivers’ Formula One championship. Mercedes have hit the ground running, and faster than everyone else, under the all new FIA technical and sporting regulations.
Mercedes have won all three races across the first two weekends of the year, with Russell claiming victory in Australia and the Sprint event in China. Kimi Antonelli scored his maiden victory in the Chinese Grand Prix, although he benefitted from a mechanical gremlin suffered by Russell in qualifying which handed the young Italian pole position and the ultimate win on Sunday afternoon.
The fact Mercedes have completed 1-2 finishes on both Grand Prix this year is a statement of how far ahead of the field they are. In the history of Formula One, 1-2 finishes at the opening two rounds of a championship has happened just six times. In 1950 and 1952 there was no contractors’ championship, but one of the drivers finishing in the 1-2 for Alfa Romeo and subsequently Scuderia Ferrari went on to win the drivers title.
F1 season opening 1-2’s guarantee titles
In 1992 Williams won the opening three rounds 1-2 with Nigel Mansell and Riccardo Patrese and the grove based F1 team won the constructors with Mansell taking the drivers championship.
The same was true for Mercedes in 2015 – their drivers were 1-2 in the opening five rounds – and for Red Bull in 2023. Again on both occasions the drivers’ and constructor titles went to Mercedes and Red Bull.
So the precedent for Mercedes dominance is already set for 2026 and with both Grand Prix races cancelled in April due to the war on Iran, their advantage will be baked in further given the competition will have no track running to test the improvements of their cars and power units.
Is it possible Kimi Antonelli will be the Mercedes driver who is crowned champion at the end of the season? Possible, but unlikely. In terms of experience his team mate Russell is streets ahead of the young Italian driver and there is already talk of Mercedes favouring George this year due to his time served alongside the seven times world champion Lewis Hamilton.
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Steiner dismisses Antonelli’s championship hopes for ’26
Ex-Haas team boss Günther Steiner believes whilst Antonelli is a great talent he is not yet capable of beating George Russell over the course of a season – now 22 races. Speaking to the Red Flags Podcast Steiner was adamant: “If something special happens, like it happened in China in qualifying. And the good thing is he took it there, but under normal circumstances… I think it is also understandable why not.
“The kid is 19 years old, second year in Formula 1, and George is a good race car driver. So I don’t think he can do it this year, but there are other opportunities for Kimi. If he doesn’t win it this year, he can win it another time because he’s so young. For me, he doesn’t have to put too much pressure on himself to win it this year. He has got a good future in front of him.”
Of course this is just one ex-F1 team bosses opinion, but more worryingly for Antonelli is the comments from his boss. When asked about his young drivers’ maiden win in China and his hopes of a drivers’ championship this year, Toto Wolff was nigh on dismissive calling Kimi “still a kid.”
“You know, in this sport that we live in it is manic depressive. Today, it’s great. In two weeks, we are in Japan, and he puts it in the wall, and people say he is too young. So I think we need to just keep the feet on the ground.” Wolff went on to observe that Antonelli, “has a fantastic driver as a team-mate, who is eight years longer in the sport.”
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Is that the answer right there to the question ‘will Antonelli be allowed to best his team mate?’ George has lived through the barren years at Mercedes and so its his turn to shine? Or maybe its to be a thank you to Russell before he’s moved on to make room for Max Verstappen.
Surely no-one could be so ruthless in Formula One? One who understands this better than most is the 1996 world champion Damon Hill. He finally defeated Michael Schumacher in his titanic struggle with the German to win his first title at Williams – and was then promptly sacked for the following season by Frank Williams himself.
Speaking on the Stay on Track podcast, Hill speculates Russell’s future at Mercedes would be far from guaranteed even were he to win this years championship. “George is always temporary. I feel like I’m relating to this a little bit, but it’s almost as if you’re standing there going, well, ‘why can’t you recognise what I’ve got? Why is there not the same fuss over my offering?’”
“He’s got the opportunity now to win a championship, but that’s not going to guarantee him his future at Mercedes. All you can do as a driver is do the best possible job that you can, and hopefully you achieve the goal of winning that world championship. And if he doesn’t continue in that team, be proud of what you’ve actually just done, because that was the whole goal in the first place.”
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George has had all 1 year contracts with one exception at Mercedes
Russell knew the Verstappen merry-go-round with Wolff would start up again this season and desperately held out for a deal longer than for a single season.
In fact since signing for Mercedes, Russell has had just one two year contract which was when he signed for the team to replace Valtteri Bottas in 2022. HIs future was secure until the end of 2023, then came the one year deals which have led to George being labelled ‘temporary.’
Late in 2023, Mercedes announced their drivers had received new shiny two year contracts. Yet the truth was that Hamilton was unhappy with what he saw as a 1 year deal with an unspecified option criteria for it to become 2 years. Months later in January 2024, Lewis announced he was leaving for Ferrari.
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Wolff then gave Russell and Kimi Antonelli a one year deal which came up for review in 2025. When finally signed Russell was keen to reveal his seat was safe should Wolff go on the Max hunt again in 2026. “The deal is, if I’m performing [next year], we have a specific clause that if I reach [a target], we will automatically renew for 2027,” Russell said. “So my seat for 2027 is in my hands.”
The announcement came over there weekend of the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix, although it must be said Russell’s rhetoric sounded very defensive. “So I’m not being strung along here, ;e added. “We’re not going to be in the same position as we were six months ago. If I perform, and I don’t want to go into details, but if I perform, then 100 per cent I’ll be staying.”
As Damon Hill knows too well, even becoming world champion does not guarantee you retain your seat within an F1 team and for Russell the situation is simple. Kimi Antonelli is the future of Mercedes AMG F1, Toto Wolff has made this patently clear. If Max Verstappen becomes available for 2027, then it is clear – performance clauses or not – it will be Russell who makes way for the Dutch champion. Deal or no deal.
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Last Updated on March 25 2026, 7:33 am
Rumours that Max Verstappen may switch from Red Bull Racing to the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team are gathering pace, with several influential figures in the paddock suggesting that negotiations could be imminent.
Former Formula 1 driver Jolyon Palmer believes that a conversation between Mercedes and the reigning world champion is not only possible, but likely. Speaking on the F1 Nation podcast, Palmer cited Red Bull’s current challenges as a pivotal factor that could prompt Verstappen to seek a dramatic exit.
According to Palmer, Red Bull are no longer in a position to dominate. “As we said last year, they won’t win the title this year,” he explained, suggesting that the Milton Keynes-based team still has significant work to do if it is to return to the front…. CONTINUE READING
A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
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