The 2024 Formula 1 season reaches its conclusion under the floodlights of Abu Dhabi, where the final points of the year will determine who leaves Yas Marina with the World Championship trophy. As the paddock settles in for the decisive weekend, Mercedes driver George Russell has offered insight into who he expects to be his main competitors, and why a few unexpected names might yet disrupt the established order.
Challenging Conditions in Early Practice
The opening practice session in Abu Dhabi is rarely representative of true performance. Held in daylight and warmer temperatures, FP1 offers limited value for teams preparing for a race that unfolds at night. Grip levels, track temperatures, and tyre behaviour differ significantly once the sun sets, meaning the more meaningful work does not begin until the second session.
George Russell approached FP1 with this mindset.
The British driver completed his run plan calmly and without concern, finishing sixth on the early timesheet. His Mercedes teammate, Kimi Antonelli, continuing to impress in his debut season, ended the session just over a tenth of a second faster in fourth place. With the real testing ground still ahead, neither driver read too much into the daylight running.
When the evening session arrived, the tone shifted. The floodlit track provided conditions far more aligned with qualifying and the race. Here, Russell demonstrated improved pace, finishing the session as the quicker of the two Mercedes drivers. His feeling behind the wheel matched the results on the timing screen.
“The car felt good,” he said, reinforcing his sense of confidence with a lap time quick enough for third place.
His deficit to Max Verstappen, who finished second on the sheet, was a mere sixteen thousandths of a second, an indicator of just how tight the competition may be in the final qualifying session of the season.
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Russell expects a tight fight and surprises
With the narrow gaps at the front of the field, Russell anticipates a fiercely competitive battle for pole position.
“I think it will be close in qualifying between us, Red Bull Racing, and Ferrari,” he explained, pointing to the familiar trio of top contenders. Mercedes’ incremental improvements, combined with Red Bull’s consistency and Ferrari’s late-season surge, could create a three-team fight that leaves little room for error.
But the 28-year-old also believes that the established favourites may not be the only ones worth watching. Several teams made notable impressions during the early sessions, including some that have not frequently challenged at the front.
“There were a few teams that were unexpectedly good,” Russell noted. “For example, Haas driver Oliver Bearman, who was right in the mix, and Nico Hülkenberg was also strong, so there could be a few surprises.”
Haas’ single-lap pace in particular raised eyebrows, with Bearman’s performance standing out against expectations. The American team has had an inconsistent season, but in Abu Dhabi, they showed signs that a clean lap with the right tyre preparation might allow them to punch above their weight.
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Race Pace Still a Concern
While Russell was pleased with Mercedes’ qualifying prospects, he admitted that long-run simulations revealed a less reassuring picture.
“To be honest, the race pace wasn’t exactly thrilling,” he said. “We need to look at that now and figure out how we can improve it.”
Yas Marina is known for exposing weaknesses in tyre management, particularly on the soft compound. Cooler evening temperatures and long, demanding corners can make it easy for drivers to overheat the tyres or lose performance through minor mistakes.
“It’s not easy with the soft tyre,” Russell explained. “Mistakes can easily happen in cooler conditions.”
Despite these challenges, Russell remained satisfied with the quality of his flying lap: “My fast lap was strong; I don’t think there was much more possible. But we only finished in third place, so we need to find some more time.”
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A Final Showdown with Unpredictable Elements
With qualifying expected to be tightly contested and multiple teams hinting at unexpected form, the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix may deliver more drama than anticipated. Whether the title fight comes down to established favourites or is influenced by a surprise contender, Russell and Mercedes know they must extract every fraction of performance to finish the season on a high.
As the floodlights shine over Yas Marina, all signs point to a finale shaped by small margins, strategic nuance, and perhaps a twist or two that no one fully saw coming.
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Having moved to Ferrari this season in a fanfare of Italian PR, Lewis Hamilton has described this year as a “nightmare” and his “worst season ever in Formula One.”
The seven times champion’s year peaked at round two in China, where he qualified on pole for the Sprint before going on to win the shortened for race on Saturday morning. Yet the cruel racing gods intervened, and both Hamilton and his team mate were disqualified from the Grand Prix on Sunday for excessive wear of the SF-25 skid blocks.
Ferrari introduced a new suspension upgrade in Belgium to deal with the ride height issues which plagued their car, yet since the new component, their average points scored each weekend has fallen from 19 to 14.
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The group president John Elkann praised the engineers and mechanics for the improvements he claimed they had made to the car, despite the actual deterioration in their statistics, going on to tell his drivers to “talk less and focus more on the driving.”
Clearly Maranello is a divided place and unlike Carlos Sainz at Williams who has overcome his switch of team, Hamilton cuts a lonesome figure in the paddock and is still sending in “documents” for the team to consider in how to improve their operation.
In Qatar, Fred Vasseur was asked why Ferrari’s form had collapsed since the final six races of 2024, when their SF-24 was by far the quickest car. He dodged the fact that Ferrari had in a moment of madness decided to build a completely new car and run a push rod suspension, a design they have no experience with.
“Quite early in the season, McLaren was so dominating in the first four or five events that we realised it would be very difficult for 2025,” said Vasseur. “It meant that we decided very early in the season, I think it was the end of April, to switch (the development focus) to ’26. It was a…READ MORE ON THIS ARTICLE
Clara Marlowe is a Formula 1 writer at TJ13 with over 15 years of experience in motorsport journalism, having contributed features to established sports magazines such as Evo, MCN, Wisden Cricket Monthly and other digital outlets.
Clara specialises in human-interest storytelling, focusing on the individuals behind the sport, including drivers, engineers, and team personnel whose roles are often overlooked in mainstream coverage.
At TJ13, Clara contributes long-form features and narrative-driven pieces that explore the personal and professional journeys within Formula 1. This includes coverage of career-defining moments, internal team dynamics, and the human impact of high-pressure competition.
Clara’s work brings depth and perspective to the sport, complementing news and analysis with stories that highlight the people behind the machinery.
Clara has a particular interest in how personal narratives intersect with performance, and how individual experiences shape outcomes across a Formula 1 season.
