Max Verstappen was a massive 104 points behind Oscar Piastri just before the Italian Grand Prix in Monza. Yet wins at the Italian Grand Prix and in Baku and a second place in Singapore has significantly turned around his hoper of a record-equaling fifth consecutive world championship.
Piastri and McLaren have dropped the ball on a number of occasions, and the team’s policy of treating their drivers fairly has hurt the Australian, who many argue should have been backed by the team from Woking to win this year’s championship.
Max has reeled in Oscar by 13.7 points across this three-race series and now needs just 10.5 points more than the McLaren driver across each of the remaining six weekends to claim the title and break the papaya fans’ hearts.
If Verstappen were to win all the remaining Grand Prix and Piastri were to finish no higher than third on average, the Dutchman would record the biggest comeback in F1 history by a title-winning driver. Of course, this is a tall order, but McLaren seem happy to allow the Dutchman to charge into their points lead.
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The development war
There’s still a quarter of the season remaining, and, as with Red Bull’s collapse in form following the opening rounds, there has been a significant shift in performance between the two teams. Red Bull has been bringing upgrades to the lacklustre RB21, which has had a dramatic effect on their performance of late.
Meanwhile, McLaren stopped developing their car and they have failed to claim pole position since Zandvoort, the first time they have not had the fastest car on Saturday for three consecutive weekends.
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McLaren struggles
In Singapore McLaren had their worst qualifying results of the season with their leading driver almost 0.4 seconds of the time of George Russells pole position. This should be worrying for the team given Mercedes have been poor on Saturday’s this year and Red Bull are now quicker on Saturday’s.
The previous weekend in Baku saw both Mclaren drivers qualify in their worst positions this year. Norris was a lowly seventh and Piastri hit the wall in Q3, something which appeared to dent his confidence amongst the concrete walls next tine out in the city state.
In Azerbaijan it was the first time no McLaren grades the front row and now there is a definite trend. The McLaren car is no longer the quickest in a variety of track configurations and weather conditions and it could be Mercedes newly found form is their biggest problem.
Mercedes resurgent
Verstappen has always needed another driver – like his team mate – or Mercedes to take points form the excellent McLaren duo to stand a chance of winning this year’s F1 championship. Now Mercedes are at the races once more and George Russell is driving in supreme fashion.
The McLaren team boss is genuinely concerned as in Baklu after qualifying he declared Max was “definitely a title contender,” which seemed a strange response at the time. He observed the new Red Bull floor upgrade for Monza had appeared to deliver an all round performance improvement whatever the circuit layout.
McLaren worried about Verstappen
The Italian team principal was the first to identify Verstappen as a genuine championship threat shortly after the mid-season break, and his premonition has so far proved accurate.
“In the slow, medium and fast corners the Red Bull is now good,“ he said. Lando Norris was asked following the Singapore race whether Mclaren could respond with new upgrades of its own. “Its too late,” he said in despondent fashion given the timescales from conception to new continents on the car is usually 6-8 weeks.
Stella was clearly concerned in Singapore over the challenge from Max and Red Bull as he told assembled media in Singapore, “there’s a trend whereby we have stopped the development of the car now for quite some time because we’ve been focusing entirely on 2026. There were little parts that we took to Monza, but otherwise we are just focusing on 2026.”
“Meanwhile we have seen that some competitors kept taking trackside some new upgrades. Red Bull certainly is one of those.” In 2021 with the epic battle between Verstappen and lewis Hamilton, Red Bull threw the kitchen sink at late season car developments which some say tipped the title in their favour.
This was also a year with looming car design regulation changes, and most teams chose to turn off the supply of new comments early to focus on the following year. Red Bull bucked the trend and with come luck form the race director delivered their first title since 2013 and broke Lewis Hamilton’s heart.
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Red Bull aggressive development plans
Red Bull Racing has been listed by the FIA as bringing new parts to their car for all of the last eight Grand Prix. When asked about the contra decision of Red Bull to continue their 2025 car development when all others have focused their resources on 2026, new team boss Laurent Mekies has admitted, “certainly from Red Bull Racing’s perspective, even without looking at the other guys around, it was and it is very important that we get to understand if the project has more performance,” he told assembled media in Singapore.
“It’s important that we get to the bottom of it because we will elaborate next year’s project, even if the regulations are completely different, with the same tools, with the same methodology. It’s very important that we validate with this year’s car that our way of looking at the data is correct, our way of developing the car is correct, and that produces that level of performance that will give us confidence in the winter for next year’s car.”
Knock-on for 2026 regulation changes
Before his departure, Christian Horner had admitted that the correlation between the factory simulations and what was happening on track were wildly different. So the continued development of the RB21 is in effect an attempt to realign the correlation of the simulation tools and what is happening on track.
To this end, Red Bull are losing nothing by ensuring their base line simulations are predicting what is happening on track. Though Mekies accepts it means less time allowable for the 2026 challenger, but the gamble is if Red Bull find themselves behind, the new understanding of their tools will stand them in good stead.
“Of course it comes at a cost, undoubtedly, to the 2026 project, but we feel it’s the right trade-off for us, without judging what the other guys are doing,” said Stella in Singapore. Reflecting on Singapore which has been a poor hunting ground for Red Bull, team boss Laurent Mekies had this to say.
“Being able to fight for the win here means a lot. We’ve been able to be in the right rhythms from Friday. We were in the right rhythm in qualifying. It was very, very close to pole, and we were in the right rhythm in the race — we finished a few seconds away from George.
“This is good news. It means that what we have unlocked is not only low-downforce-specific.” McLaren team boss Andrea Stella is clearly concerned about the Red Bull revival and is expecting more punishment at the upcoming USGP. “I would expect that Austin will still be a bit of a struggle for us, because the corners are tight in many braking areas,” he said. “Our tracks still remain the likes of Brazil, Qatar, Abu Dhabi. Perhaps earlier on in the season, when we had a bit more advantage, we could go better with some other circuits, but some competitors kept developing their car or understanding better how to use their car, so now the field has become even more competitive.”
McLaren’s prospects for the rest of the season
Yet all bets are off given the Red Bull revival, no previous McLaren favoured circuit are now a safe hunting ground. With Stella conceding COTA may not be their best opportunity next up in Mexico, which is also no shoe-in for the McLaren team.
At 2240 metres above sea level, the thinness of the air at the Mexican GP has a significant impact on the cars, which produce less downforce than they do in Monza despite running as much wing as they do in Monaco. The rare air also substantially affects engine and brake cooling.
The fussy corners in Mexico City favour the Red Bull car again although cooling here will play an issue. Austin and Mexico are Red Bull favourites and should Piastri have another disastrous weekend, the points tally required per race could fall quickly to the difference between P1 and P2.
If the rains come again in Brazil, Verstappen’s ultimate F1 drive of 2024 could yet again make a significant difference between him and McLaren’s young driver. Three more wins in the next three races for the Dutch Maestro, will pile the pressure on McLaren and Oscar who appear to be buckling at present under the expectation of a first driver’s championship since Hamilton in 2008.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
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