Yuki Tsunoda’s position at Red Bull Racing has been under scrutiny for several months – With the 2025 season over its halfway point, the future of the Japanese driver beyond next year is looking increasingly uncertain. Promoted from the Racing Bulls to the senior Red Bull team, Tsunoda has struggled to deliver the kind of results expected of a driver racing alongside Max Verstappen. With only twelve points from fourteen races, the disparity between his performances and those of his teammate has become too significant to ignore.
While Red Bull has yet to make a formal announcement, there is widespread speculation in the paddock that Tsunoda will not continue with the A-Team beyond 2025. If this is indeed the case, the pressing question becomes where he might end up after leaving Red Bull. A recent report from the Japanese outlet Autosport Web claims there are two possible destinations, though each comes with caveats and uncertainties.
The first is a possible return to the Racing Bulls, the team with which he made his Formula 1 debut. The second is a move outside the Red Bull family altogether, with Alpine reportedly considering Tsunoda as part of its long-term plans.
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Red Bull’s patience is wearing thin
Many have viewed Tsunoda’s tenure at Red Bull Racing as something of an experiment. After showing promise with the Racing Bulls, he was promoted in the hope that he could support Max Verstappen more effectively than previous teammates. Yet the reality has been sobering. Four top-ten finishes in fourteen starts is well below the standard required to remain in one of Formula 1’s most coveted seats.
The numbers alone tell a troubling story. Verstappen has continued to dominate, winning consistently and maintaining his status as the clear team leader. Meanwhile, Tsunoda has found himself mired in the midfield, struggling to adapt to the demands of the Red Bull machinery. For a team accustomed to chasing championships, such inconsistency cannot be tolerated for long.
The suggestion that Tsunoda’s departure is already a foregone conclusion grows louder with each passing race. In the cut-throat world of Formula 1, Red Bull’s willingness to take decisive action is well known. With a long line of junior drivers waiting in the wings, Tsunoda’s underwhelming performances offer little justification for his continued place in the senior squad.
A possible return to the Racing Bulls
Should he leave Red Bull Racing, the most immediate option would be a return to the Racing Bulls. However, this scenario hinges on the team’s evolving driver line-up and the priorities of Red Bull’s management.
Isack Hadjar is widely expected to be promoted within the Red Bull family, potentially taking Tsunoda’s place alongside Verstappen. Hadjar’s progress through the junior ranks has impressed management, and he is said to have overtaken Liam Lawson in the pecking order thanks to his performances.
This brings us to the next complication. Lawson, once considered a strong candidate for a return to his Red Bull Racing seat, is reportedly losing support within the organisation. Autosport Web claims that senior figures no longer consider him to be the next big talent. A combination of inconsistent performances and questionable incidents has damaged his reputation. The clash with Tsunoda at Monza, where the pair made contact, damaging the senior Red Bull car in the process, is said to have been poorly received by management.
If Lawson’s stock continues to decline, this could create an opening at the Racing Bulls for Tsunoda. The Japanese driver’s prior experience with the team and familiarity with its operations would make him a natural candidate. However, many would see this as a step backwards for Tsunoda, who would also have to accept a diminished role compared to the lofty status he briefly held within the Red Bull organisation.
Alpine is keeping watch from the sidelines
Beyond the Red Bull ecosystem, there may be another opportunity for Tsunoda. Reports indicate that Alpine, now under Flavio Briatore’s influence, has compiled a long list of potential driver candidates for the coming years, including Tsunoda.
Pierre Gasly, who drove alongside Tsunoda in the past, is said to be advocating for his former teammate. The two have been friends since their time at AlphaTauri, and Gasly is said to value Tsunoda’s skills and character highly. In a paddock where personal connections can sometimes be the deciding factor, such support could be significant.
However, Alpine’s situation is far from settled. The team has endured a turbulent period involving management changes and fluctuating on-track results. Decisions regarding its driver line-up are not expected to be made until the end of the year, which leaves Tsunoda in a difficult position. Without clarity on Alpine’s intentions, he risks being left in limbo, unable to secure a seat until much later in the process.
The strategic challenge
For Tsunoda, the coming months are crucial. Every race between now and the end of the year represents an opportunity to prove that he belongs in Formula 1. Consistent top-ten finishes would strengthen his case for either a return to the Racing Bulls or a fresh start with Alpine.
At present, however, his record is underwhelming. Four points from fourteen starts is not the résumé of a driver who can secure a place on the grid. The onus is firmly on Tsunoda to change the narrative. Without a marked improvement, the whispers of an impending exit will only grow louder.
The broader Red Bull picture
The uncertainty surrounding Tsunoda’s future is emblematic of the wider dynamics within the Red Bull driver programme. For years, the team has been ruthless in its management of young talent, promoting aggressively and discarding those who fail to measure up. This approach has produced champions, but it has also left a trail of careers cut short.
Hajjar’s rise, Lawson’s decline and Tsunoda’s potential demotion or departure are the latest chapters in this ongoing saga. As ever, Red Bull’s priorities are ensuring that Max Verstappen has the best possible support and that its broader talent pipeline continues to flourish. Sentimentality plays little part in such decisions.
The next few months will be decisive. If he can deliver performances that belie his current record, he may earn a reprieve with Red Bull’s junior team or find a new home at Alpine. Otherwise, his time in Formula 1 could come to an end sooner than he might have imagined.
For a driver who once seemed destined to bring Japanese fans sustained success in the sport, this is a sobering reality. However, Formula 1 has always been a brutal meritocracy, and Tsunoda’s struggles are not unique. The competition is fierce, the margins are fine and the opportunities are few.
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Alex Stanton is a Formula 1 journalist at TJ13 with a focus on the financial and commercial dynamics that underpin the sport. Alex contributes reporting and analysis on team ownership structures, sponsorship trends, and the evolving business model of Formula 1.
At TJ13, Alex covers topics including manufacturer investment, cost cap implications, and the strategic direction of teams navigating an increasingly complex financial environment. Alex’s work often examines how commercial decisions translate into on-track performance and long-term competitiveness.
With a strong interest in the intersection of sport and business, Alex provides context around Formula 1’s global growth, including media rights, expansion markets, and manufacturer influence.
Alex’s reporting aims to explain the financial realities behind headline stories, helping readers understand how money, governance, and strategy shape the competitive order in Formula 1.
Tsunoda is definitely the odd man out in any equation involving Lindblad, i.e., Red Bull Racing or nothing, & even continuing there is an option only if Lindblad were to continue in F2.
He definitely won’t return to the B-team in any case, which people should accept rather than think otherwise, because he was there for little over four seasons before promotion, so zero benefits for his career nor the organization anymore, not to mention no justification either sporting or external factor-wise exists, especially as Lawson hasn’t given any justification for losing his drive there as well, which may have been the case at RBR, but definitely not also for VCARB, so he’ll definitely remain there in any case to provide some driver continuity, not to mention Tsunoda was more to blame for their contact as he moved under braking while Lawson kept his line, & even Marko put all the blame on Tsunoda.
Honestly, thinking that Lawson would get sacrificed for Tsunoda couldn’t be more utopian, especially as Lawson hasn’t given any reason for sacrifice performance-wise since he & Hadjar have been roughly matched on average over the recent rounds (therefore, he isn’t on decline, but only Tsunoda), not to mention he’ll be useful for the organization moving on, unlike Tsunoda, with Honda’s financial benefits disappearing altogether, so he’s definitely out altogether unless he gets to continue in the main team.
Besides, not only Hadjar, but Lawson has also shown more overall potential in F1 than Tsunoda & in considerably fewer GPs, nor has the Red Bull management said they’re unhappy with him or that they wouldn’t consider him the next big thing anymore, so those claims couldn’t be more false without foundation either.
Therefore, all things considered, both sporting & external factors, the lineups will be VER-HAD & LAW-LIN, which is something Joe Saward, one of the most trusted & reliable journalists within the paddocks, has also referred to.
Additionally, Alpine isn’t considering Tsunoda, which Briatore made clear in his most recent interview with Canal+ by bluntly stating that they aren’t interested in Tsunoda or any other drivers.
All in all, his most recent words are the strongest hint yet for retaining Colapinto.