As Formula One hurtles towards one of the biggest car design regulation changes in history, information about how the teams’ simulations are predicting they will perform is coming thick and fast.
There have been concerns the new rules will see a repeat of 2014, when Mercedes aced their design for the new V6 hybrid power units and dominated the sport for eight years. In an attempt to prevent a repeat of this, the FIA have for 2026 issued a cost cap for the manufacturers given Mercedes spend on R&D was estimated at around ten times of that spent by Renault just over a decade ago.
Despite levelling the playing field, a number of paddock insiders believe once again Mercedes will build the best power unit, a view which created the copious ‘Verstappen to Mercedes for 2026’ style reports. At the Hungarian GP, Verstappen finally confirmed he would remain at Red Bull Racing for 2026 which gives him the time to see which team comes out on top in F1’s huge shakeup.
Newey believes ICE is key
Adrian Newey stated earlier this year, that the new F1 formula could well be power unit dominated. “I think engine manufacturers will have learnt to an extent on the lack of preparation that the rivals to Mercedes did prior to that change [for 2014] but there has to be a chance that one manufacturer will come out well on top and it’ll become a power unit-dominated regulation, at least to start with,” the Aston Martin technical chief told AMuS.
“There’s a chance, if it’s on the combustion engine side of it that somebody comes up with a dominant combustion engine, that will last through the length of the formula,” Newey added. “Because the way the regulations are written, it’s quite difficult for people who are behind to catch up. If it’s on the electrical side, then there’s much more ability to catch up if you’re behind.”
Now Mercedes technical director James Allison has given his perspective on the 2026 regulations, outlining the main challenges he expects as the Brackley squad prepares for next season. He emphasised that tyres will remain the ultimate bottleneck for performance, with the importance of a strong powertrain coming second to mastering chassis and aerodynamics.
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Allison says aero will rule
Speaking to Nextgen Auto, Allison pointed out that the new power units will deliver more balanced loads at the end of straights, replacing the heavy peaks currently seen. He welcomed this change as beneficial, while noting that other aspects of the package will introduce new complications.
The 2026 cars will see major changes beyond the power units, which will now split their output equally between internal combustion and electric power. Active aerodynamics will also be introduced, with front and rear wing surfaces able to shift between low-drag and high-downforce modes. Allison stressed that success will depend first and foremost on extracting the most from these new chassis and aero elements, but that tyres will ultimately dictate performance.
Tyre sizes will be reduced by 25mm at the front and 30mm at the rear to cut drag and weight, reducing the overall contact patch of the car. This means the rubber will be forced to work harder, especially as tyre warmers are set to be banned under the new rules. Allison explained that while teams will still run at low operating temperatures, Pirelli must design compounds capable of working effectively without external heating. He added that tyres will remain just as crucial in 2026 as they are today, despite some areas of progress.
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Smaller F1 tyres
Pirelli has already begun testing narrower tyres on a 2026 mule car, but Mercedes driver George Russell voiced concerns after trying them in March. He described the reduced width as a notable step down from current specifications and said the narrower construction made the car more difficult to handle. Russell expressed hope that the compounds would be improved during the development process over the coming months. “That [the test] was a bit of a challenge compared to the wider tyres we have today,” said the three-time grand prix winner in Bahrain for 2025 pre-season testing.
“It was quite a step worse with the new tyres. That is naturally the case, because they’re just much more narrow. So hopefully they will be improved over the upcoming months.” Mercedes believe managing the tyres will be the crucial differentiator whilst Newey is concerned there’s a possibility the best power unit could dominate.
Yet F1’s supremo, Stefano Domenicali believes this time around the FIA have created a catch up system which should prevent either one manufacturer dominating or one being miles off the pace as were Honda. “Nothing prevents us from working to improve the package,” Domenicali said. “The FIA, together with the manufacturers and teams, can always assess if there are areas for improvement.
FIA ‘catchup’ process revealed
“We’re on the brink of a major regulatory shift, and I personally believe it’s crucial that the system allows for a faster recovery if a manufacturer falls behind significantly. That’s an issue we must address quickly – it could happen to anyone.”
Last week the FIA’s chief technical officer, Nikolas Tombazis revealed their plans for a ‘catch up’ system for 2026. “We’ve introduced a programme for this that we call ‘additional development opportunities for performance gaps’. It was in the rules from the beginning. In recent months, we’ve refined how we want to manage it. Essentially, we’ll measure the average performance for each manufacturer every six races.”
More money and more testing
Reflecting Newey’s concern that one internal combustion engine (ICE) could dominate, the FIA will measure the output each race weekend of the various ICE’s and when the average is taken, should any manufacturer be more than 3% down on the performance of leading power unit, they will be allowed extra resources to catch up.
“For those below a certain level, there will be an upgrade option depending on how far behind. This can be represented at three different levels: more money for development; more dyno hours; more time for specification homologation. So, those who are behind have a chance to catch up,” he concluded.
For Newey the ICE is of concern, Allison at Mercedes believes tyre management will make the aerodynamic performance the key. Even with ten races remaining of this season, the anticipation for next is already building.
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
