Russell saves his seat with an average weekend – The Formula One Belgian Grand Prix was a happy hunting ground for Mercedes just a year ago. George Russell took the chequered flag ahead of his team mate, but it is Lewis Hamilton who the history books record as the winner. Russell’s Mercedes was a whopping 1.5kg under weight and so he was disqualified.
In the cooler conditions of the Ardennes mountain region, the W15 was expected to once again be a front runner in Spa Francorchamps, but it was to prove not to be the case. Free practice one was as good as the weekend got, with Russell finishing in fourth and Kimi Antonelli two slots further back.
Having made a mistake which saw him out of qualifying, Antonelli would start the Sprint plumb last, while Russell missed the top ten shootout and could only manage P13. Neither driver troubled the scoring in Saturday morning and in Grand Proix qualifying Antonelli was again out in Q1.
Russell poor show prevents Max exit clause
Russell faired somewhat better, with a start position of sixth under his belt and an early opportunity saw the British driver overtake Alex Albon ahead of him. George had a brief tussle with Max Verstappen but soon fell away, to run a lonely race finishing some 13 seconds behind Verstappen to remain fifth and five seconds ahed of the struggling Albon.
With a win in the Sprint and a P4 in the Grand Prix, Verstappen extended his lead over Russell in the drivers’ championship to 28 points. This is significant for both Russell and Verstappen because the world champion’s exit clause from his contract is based around his position come the summer break.
In any long term F1 driver’s contact – and Max’s runs to the end of 2028 – there are escape clauses written in which allows the driver to leave should the team not be performing to an acceptable level. Of course any team can ace a season, denying even the best driver (elsewhere) either position one or two in driver’s championship and it has been widely reported that Verstappen’s exit clause is based on whether he is lower than third at the summer break.
With just twenty five points maximum on offer next time out in Hungary, Russell cannot displace Max from his third place in the drivers championship, before the team’s head into the two week August mandatory shutdown. So whilst the weekend in Belgium was mediocre at best for the Mercedes team, Russell’s drive is no longer under threat from the world champion.
Newey predicts domination in 2026
Of course, as Christian Horner once said a team boss would not be doing the right thing to restrain a driver from leaving of that was his wish and Verstappen or his new team cold buy out his contract with the Red Bull team. Yet Dutch publication de Telegraaf is reporting today, Verstappen is not planning to leave Red Bull regardless of his exit clause scenario.
The mood music coming from Max shifted somewhat in recent F1 weekends, rather than rebuffing questions about his future with in effect a ‘no comment’, he has reverted to the line he took two years ago, that he was happy at Red Bull and there was no reason for him to leave.
There remains some uncertainties on the horizon in the F1 paddock including whether Fred Vasseur will finally get a contract extension before the end of the year. Laurent Mekies and Alan Parmane were shotgun appointments as team principals and even the Austrian overlords at Red Bull appeared to find themselves caught out by the speed of events.
Biggest of all is the regulation changes coming in 2026, with new power units and new chassis, something never attempted before in F1. Guru F1 car designer Adrian Newey suggested earlier this year that one team could dominate the new F1 regulations. “There’s a chance, if it’s on the combustion engine side of it that somebody comes up with a dominant combustion engine, that will last through the length of the formula,” Newey said.
Mercedes have no advantage
“Because the way the regulations are written, it’s quite difficult for people who are behind to catch up. If it’s on the electrical side, then there’s much more ability to catch up if you’re behind,” said Aston Martin’s managing technical partner.
The paddock opinion mostly supports the notion that Mercedes will once again ace the engine regulations as they did in 2014 and hence the Verstappen to Mercedes persistent rumours. Yet this time around the rules for developing new powertrains have significant restrictions on the manufacturers which were not present prior to 2014.
Mercedes outspent Renault by around 500% on the first V6 turbo hybrid packages, with a reported $1bn alone on research and development. For next year there are financial spending limits imposed upon the manufacturers together with restrictions on the amount of bench testing which can be done.
Verstappen makes a pragmatic decision
So Mercedes do not have the massive advantage they did for 2014 and there’s no reason why Honda in association with a Newey designed car, could be the runaway leaders in 2016. Further, just as Newey was deemed important to Red Bull’s success, so Andy Cowell was for Mercedes heading up their engine department in Brixworth.
Cowell is now in Silverstone with Newey along side him, the perfect pairing to ensure powertrain and chassis are working in perfect harmony.
So Verstappen staying out at Red Bull is no decision based on loyalty, but merely a pragmatic approach to the biggest set of rule changes in the 75 year’s of history in Formula One. If he left for Mercedes in 2026, he would surely find himself bound with a three year deal in a team which could trail Aston Martin, Ferrari, McLaren or even Red Bull.
Pirelli admit HUGE fail
The annual visit of Formula One to the Ardennes forest region of Belgium, is one where unexpected changes in the weather are the norm – Back in 2021, the Belgium Grand Prix became the shortest in F1 history and the only World Championship Grand Prix not to have any running under full green flag conditions in its duration with only two full completed laps completed behind the safety car before the race was abandoned.
The 2025 weekend in Spa Francorhamps had enjoyed benign sunny conditions across Friday and Saturday, but heavy rains came to the region over night and continued into Sunday morning. The rain intensified early morning and meant the Formula Three feature race was red flagged after just two laps behind the safety car.
The drivers returned to the pits only to watch the race time clock countdown to zero and with a full schedule of on track action ahead, the race was eventually abandoned. As the conditions eased over the following hour, the F2 feature race was able to start, even though the cars were forced to begin behind the safety car…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
