The annual visit of Formula One to the Ardennes forest region of Belgium, is one where unexpected changes in the weather are the norm – Back in 2021, the Belgium Grand Prix became the shortest in F1 history and the only World Championship Grand Prix not to have any running under full green flag conditions in its duration with only two full completed laps completed behind the safety car before the race was abandoned.
The 2025 weekend in Spa Francorhamps had enjoyed benign sunny conditions across Friday and Saturday, but heavy rains came to the region over night and continued into Sunday morning. The rain intensified early morning and meant the Formula Three feature race was red flagged after just two laps behind the safety car.
The drivers returned to the pits only to watch the race time clock countdown to zero and with a full schedule of on track action ahead, the race was eventually abandoned. As the conditions eased over the following hour, the F2 feature race was able to start, even though the cars were forced to begin behind the safety car.
F3 race cancelled due to rain
The top junior FIA racing category enjoyed plenty of chaos with cars spinning off in the thoroughly wet conditions. But it was an engine blow up from Oliver Goethe during the closing laps which finally brought out the red flag which saw McLaren driver Alex Duane claim victory and a return to the top of the championship.
Immediately the paddock chatter considered whether in similar conditions the F1 event would be possible in the afternoon. Pirelli have received a considerate amount of criticism in recent years over their full wet tyres not fitting the brief with the result that teams almost always opt to never use them, no matter how bad the rain gets.
Back in 2023, heavy rains affected the start of the Sprint race on Saturday in Spa and race control eventually mandated a rolling start behind the safety car, with every driver mandated to start on the full wet Pirelli tyre. The train of cars rotating were then able to shift much of the standing water, as the full wet tyre displaces around 86 litres of water a second.
Yet the tyre is rarely used for racing as evidenced after the race start, when the entire field within two laps of the green flag pitted to switch to the intermediate tyres. Whilst the full wets shot more than twice the amount of water as do the intermediates, the performance gap between the two is so large that F1 teams will ditch the full wet as soon as possible.
F1 race at risk
Further, the full wet tyre whilst shifting huge amounts of standing water causes a problem with visibility and at a high speed circuit like in Belgium with cars traveling at up to 300kph the inability of the driver to be able to see much ahead make racing dangerous.
Following the cancelation of the F3 event in Spa, Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola was questioned over whether if in similar conditions the Formula One Grand Prix would be able to run.
“The problem is usually visibility on a high-speed circuit like Spa,” he told assembled media. “Nobody want to take any risk. We know that modern sport is dangerous, but it’s correct to take counter measures to guarantee safety in this condition. So if the race is in a condition similar to what we had in Formula Two, I believe there is a chance of a race.
“But Formula Three, this morning was cancelled. The level of water was crazy. There is a higher risk for aquaplaning. Eau Rouge Raidillon is a fantastic corner, a unique corner, but also some sometimes dangerous in wet condition.” Of course in Formula One the tyres are almost twice the width of those used in the junior formulae. This means the F1 cars are more capable in the wettest of conditions, but Isola is doubtful if the race will take place if the weather is similar to that for the scheduled F3 event.
Timing of rainfall crucial
Pressed on the issue, Isola replied: “No, I don’t think so, because there is a lot of standing water. We have also other high-speed corners with standing water.” Isola also confirmed the decision to send the F1 cars out on track is dependent on the timing of when the rains come.
“The other point is that if they are able to start the race because conditions are good enough, then obviously, when you have 20 cars running, you also take some water away from track. And even in conditions where you have some rain coming, it’s still possible to race because the conditions are acceptable. But if there is a lot of water before the start of the race, that means that you have puddles, so you have aquaplaning.”
The FIA spray guard programme abandoned
The FIA commissioned a working party in 2022 to research the potential of fitting ‘mud guards’ to F1 cars in an attempt to reduce the spray and improve visibility. Tests were performed by Mercedes and Ferrari but the results showed the guards had a limited impact on visibility and also the cars then failed to clear the standing water as quickly as when they were not fitted.
Another complication was trying to calculate how much spray is generated by the F1 diffusers at the rear of the car, which direct huge amounts of airflow and with it any rain water which has fallen. “It’s an inherent issue to do with diffusers,” said the FIA’s director of single seater racing, Nikolas Tombazis. “But by and large sportscars have less of this issue. And so I’m optimistic that indicates that we have a fighting chance. But as I say, until we actually properly quantify it, we need to continue the R&D programme.”
The spray guard programme has for all useful purposes been abandoned by the FIA and with a new breed of F1 chassis coming in 2026 there are hopes the change in the design of the underfloors will naturally improve the issue.
Hamilton chooses radical change for Belgium GP
Just twelve months ago, Lewis Hamilton fought back from his three year drought of Grand Prix victories to claim the top step of the podium in his Mercedes car at the 2024 Belgium Grand Prix. One year on having left his German life long racing sponsor, the seven times world champion is having a poor first season with his new Ferrari team.
Whilst the rains may well come in true Ardennes Forrest fashion on Sunday, Hamilton the once rainmeister will not be looking forward to the task ahead at the Spa Francochamps circuit. The weekend began badly for Lewis given he found himself over a second off the pace in free practice one on Friday.
In the qualifying session for the Sprint, Hamilton was on a lap which would have seen him easily transfer from SQ1 before an inexplicable spin at the final chicane saw him miss the cut and start the one third distance race from P18. Meanwhile in the other Ferrari Charles Leclerc qualified in P4, behind the McLaren’s and Max Verstappen….. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
