The speculation over Max Verstappen’s Formula One future took another turn in Jeddah. With Red Bull sitting third in the constructors’ title race and their RB21 at times just the fourth fastest of the front runners on the grid this year, speculation is growing that should the Milton Keynes based team fail to give the world champion a car to claim his fifth title this season, he will be off elsewhere in search of future glory.
Max is no stranger to these kinds of rumours, which heightened during last years drought of ten consecutive race wins. However, the latest round of speculation was fired up by Red Bull advisor Dr. Helmut Marko who said ahead of the Saudi Grand Prix: “Upgrades are needed for Max to win his fifth world title,” he told Formel1.de. “That is our big goal and the whole team is working hard on it.
“Of course every top driver has an exit clause if performance is not good. But they are all tuned differently”. When asked if the F1 summer break in August was the earliest point in time where Verstappen could enact any such clause, Marko replied: “Yes, that’s the time window.”
Mercedes assumptions not a given
Verstappen himself appeared to distance himself from his mentor’s comments when questioned over why Marko had made such comments, the world champion replied stony faced, “I don’t know.” Whilst Max was most courted by Toto Wolff last season, with a view to the Dutch driver joining the Mercedes team come 2026, Wolff appeared to suggest any hope of this deal getting done was now over.
When asked in Melbourne about the fact both his drivers had no contracts beyond the current year, Toto Wolff appeared to crush the rumours this because one may have to make way for Max in 2026. “So at the moment that (a move for Verstappen) is not on any radar,” stated the Austrian. “I don’t plan to shift my concentration away from these guys and (will) make sure that George has some visibility very soon, or has a contract very soon.”
All the noise about Max leaving Red Bull for Mercedes in particular, was based on the assumption that as in 2014 it will be the German manufacturer who aces the new 2026 regulations and again delivers an all conquering F1 power unit. Yet there are two reasons why Mercedes may not have the pull for Max that others believe.
Firstly, the bad blood between Wolff and Red Bull which hails from the intensity of the 2021 season, would be difficult for the Dutch driver erase from his memory. The Verstappen’s and Christian Horner were incandescent with the way the Mercedes team boss celebrated Hamiltons win in Silverstone that year, with the Mercedes driver having been penalised for sending Max into the wall at high speed.
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Verstappen was taken to hospital having suffered a 50g impact at the 2021 British GP and the glee of the Mercedes team was not appreciated by the concerned Red Bull pit wall.
A second reason why the pull of Mercedes may not be as strong for the world champion as many in the paddock believe, is that unlike for 2014, the manufacturers building the new 2026 power units are doing so under very strict limitations as regulated by the FIA. Spending on the R&D and testing for all the F1 manufacturers is now restricted. For 2014 Mercedes reportedly outspent the likes of Renault by a a factor of five on their engine building programme.
Add to this no one really knows which manufacturer will turn out on top next year, although Audi and Honda are already managing expectations. There is an element of the unknown for all F1’s OEMs as the electrical elements now become as important as the internal combustion engine in terms of power out.
The new F1 power units are experimental in nature, and so a glance at Audi, Ferrari and Mercedes relative strengths in another series with similar regulations is not possible. Red Bull now have the might of Ford behind them and the American manufacturer has vast resources they have made available to the Milton Keynes based team.
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Marko threatens Red Bull
Max leaving Red Bull is the story many F1 observers would like to be true and Dr. Marko is stoking the conspiracy fires by claiming this may well happen iff the team can’t give the world champion a car capable of wining him his fifth F1 title.
“Max’s primary goal is the world championship. If we give him the car he needs for that, the question of a change [of team] won’t even arise.” Dr. Marko then piles the pressure onto Red Bull, stating Verstappen’s hopes of winning the 2025 drivers’ title may be over before the teams even arrive back in Europe. “If we want to stay in the title fight, we have to achieve a podium finish in the next three races,” Marko insists.
Formula One is learning its lesson and is desperate to prevent the recent almost decade of dominance enjoyed by Mercedes, who won six consecutive team titles between 2014 and 2021. Verstappen knows this to be true, and so to believe that Red Bull can dominate for the next three years is clearly a nonsense and even guru designer Adrian Newey admits the fastest car next year, could come from any number of teams.
Further, as Fernando’s Alonso’s career has demonstrated, even for a double world champion – guessing the next team which will be top of the F1 pile is definitely not an exact science. Further, Max enjoys a position at Red Bull he will not be afforded at either Mercedes, Ferrari or McLaren, who provide a level playing field for both of their drivers.
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For example, should be see Yuki Tsunoda ahead of his team mate in this weekends race in Jeddah, if the pair are close on track come the Grand Prix on Sunday, Red Bull will almost definitely switch them around. As Marko claims, the net three races are crucial for Max Verstappen, given Red Bull are spectating their first big upgrades in Imola and then their competition may well be affected in Spain by the new flex wing rules coming into force in Barcelona.
Max knows full well that moving teams may not be simply a formula to remain at the top of F1. Even were he to pick a winning racing squad, as Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz are showing this year, adapting to a new environment and different racing technologies is not a simple as some may believe.
The latest rumour is now that Ferrari are interested in catching the services of the quadruple world champion, When asked at the drivers’ FIA press conference about a move to Italy, Verstappen smiled and did his best to end the live of questioning by saying: “I am happy [at Red Bull], I’m just not very happy with, of course, our car. But that goes for everyone, we all want to be better, there’s no secret about that. That’s what we’re trying to improve.”
Exit clause unlikely to be met
Talk of an exit clause that Max will enact come the summer break failed to examine in detail its probability. Verstappen will know from F1 history, there may be a team that aces a season and so his condition for being exempt from his contract, is likely to be triggered only should he find himself in P4 or worse.
The last time Verstappen finished a season lower than third place, was in 2018 in only his second full year at Red Bull. With McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes intentions declared that they will treat their drivers equally, this brings hope to Verstappen that in each of his rival teams, the drivers will take points from each other, which we’ve already seen at McLaren.
Of course should say Aston Martin emerge from 2026, with the best car from Adrian Newey and with Honda challenging for the honour of the most powerful engine, his view may well change. But at present even the unknowns are not knowable in terms of future F1 pecking order, and so the old adage for now and next year guiding Verstappen, will be “better the devil you know,” which is the percentage decision to make.
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Formula One is an eye wateringly expensive sport and even since the introduction of the cost cap, the FIA continues to demand the teams find cost saving measures where possible. The recent debate about the cost of the new 2026 power units again brings to light to an area of the sport which is could become unsustainable in another global financial crisis.
To this end the FIA has ratcheted up over the years the regulations which force the manufacturers and teams to deliver ever increasingly reliable components. Penalties are issued in the form of grid drops for those using more than the mandated number allowed in F1’s sporting regulations.
With twenty four race weekends in 2025 which now include six Sprint races, the drivers face the challenge of being restricted to juts four internal combustion engines, four Turbochargers, MGU-Hs and MGU-Ks and two Control Electrics and Energy Stores for the entire season. The less expensive exhaust systems which are more prone to failure anyway sees the teams now will an annual allowance of eight for each car.
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
