The Suzuka circuit in the southern region of Japan has suffered during the F1 weekend from outbreaks of fires on the parched grass. The country has experienced a much dryer than usual start to the year, but tomorrow all that is set to change with heavy rain on the way.
There is now a 90% of rain predicted right up to the start of the Grand Prix, but the sunny spells first thought to follow appear to have been replaced with more showers timed to start as the race gets underway.
Wind speeds of just 3kph mean the forecast is less likely to change again for tomorrow given the lack of wind to move on the front heading the way of Suzuka. The circuit which is home to the Japanese GP has been notorious over the years for a lack of overtaking.
Suzuka third most overtakes in 2024
Yet when looking at the overtakes in F1 last year, Suzuka had the third highest number of passes during the Grand Prix, with just over 40 while the average for the season being 33. All but one F1 Grand Prix in Japan have been won from a starting position within the top five and 18 from 34 (52.94%) have been won from pole and with the Red Bull making better starts this year than their McLaren rivals, Verstappen in the rain should be a firm favourite for the win.
In the dry, McLaren look to have the better race pace, but Verstappen has protected himself from being swamped down the main straight by running the skinniest rear wing of all the drivers in the field. With no big braking zones except for the chicane at the end of the lap, the driver leading into lap 2 will have a significant advantage as DRS in Suzuka does not have the power of other circuits when drivers have similar tyre offsets.
TV replays from Sky show Verstappen on his quickest qualifying lap was significantly ahead of the McLaren along the straight and was some 30 metres ahead of his rival come the 50 metre braking board on the left of the track. Through the following Esses, Norris with better downforce closes the gap and the two Degna corners again give the advantage to the car with higher levels of downforce.
Verstappen then claws back the advantage on the long runs in and out of spoon corner and rotates his car better through the final chicane to get on the power earlier than Norris on the run to the line.
“Amazing lap” admits Norris
With less than half a tenth of a second between the top three, Charles Leclerc raised smiles in the Ferrari garage as he claimed P4 for the race. The Ferrari was though three tenths of the pace of the leading trio but Hamilton another three tenths further back, starts from a lowly P8.
“Max did an amazing lap,” admitted Norris who beat the world champion in the other wet race of the season in Melbourne. The forecast is similar as it was down under, with heavy rain before the start and then showers as the circuit begins to drive.
“It’s probably going to be a bit of a race like Melbourne, and that was an exciting race for everyone,” Norris observed. “Now I’ve got to try and do some overtakes, you know? So we’ll see. It’s exciting. I think the unknown of the weather is going to make it exciting and nerve-wracking for everyone.”
Aussie driver Oscar Piastri who won last time out in Shanghai was disappointed with his final qualifying effort which left him third on the grid. Yet Piastri lost a huge chunk of time in the final chicane, which Verstappen aced, otherwise the winner of the pole position award would have been going to McLaren.
Hamilton admits Ferrari ride height has been raised
“I think it is still all to play for in the race,” said Oscar. “Just see what the weather does. Obviously the game plan is to try and finish two spots ahead of where I’m starting. But apart from that, we’ll see what we get.”
Hamilton who had a roller coaster weekend in China where he claimed pole and victory for the Sprint, before being disqualified from the Grand Prix for running his car below the FIA regulated limit. Running the suspension lower adds performance to the car, something Lewis notes has affected him this weekend as Ferrari aim not to make the same mistake again.
Hamilton’s underfloor plank was adjudicated to be just 0.5mm under the limit required in China and so Lewis confirms his car is running higher in Japan to avoid another costly repeat of the error. “We are running higher than we’d like, but everyone is in the same boat in that respect,” said Hamilton in the post session media pen.
“Particularly obviously after the last race we are a bit higher than we wanna be — that’s usually he knock-on effect of the weekend like we had before. Charles did an amazing lap today.” Lewis confirmed he and Leclerc went different ways over setup, but try as he might Hamilton could not dial out the dreaded understeer which makes his front end more nervous on corner entry.
Verstappen the rain ‘gold standard’
Lewis is praying for rain for the Grand Prix which would improve his chances of moving forward in the field. “I’m excited, I generally love the rain. It’s going to be tricky but usually when you have a qualifying like I’ve just had, you hope for the rain.”
Hamilton earned his reputation for being a ‘rainmeister’ during his first world championship season when in a soaking wet Silverstone he triumphed, whilst those around him were finding it difficult to remain on track.
Yet Verstappen’s drive in Brazil in 2024 has set a new standard. The Dutch driver qualified in seventeenth but in a matter of laps had found his way towards ihefront of the pack. He and the Alpines stayed out in truly awful conditions, whilst the other leading contenders pitted to take on fresh rubber.
Max romped to a stunning victory by over twenty seconds that day, whilst Hamilton struggled to finish inside the top ten. Should the rains come tomorrow it will be Max who is favourite for the win, unless Hamilton can roll back the decades an relive what was one of his finest hours.
McLaren strange observation about Red Bull
Red Bull have been the centre of media attention in Japan, on the whole for its surprise switch of drivers Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda for the seat alongside Max Verstappen. The Kiwi was ditched after just two race weekends of the 2025 Formula One season having been judged at two circuits where he has never driver before.
On the whole Tsunoda has delivered well at his home race in Suzuka, finishing close to his world champion team mate in practice and the the first round of qualifying where he was just a tenth of a second slower than Verstappen.
The team may have been partially responsible for Tsunoda’s exit having decided to give him used soft tyres for his first run in Q2. This was to save a second set of new tyres for Q3, but of course this became a moot point given Yuki failed to make the top ten shootout…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
