The Formula One Japanese Grand Prix has never been so eagerly anticipated since its move from the traditional autumn slot on the calendar to springtime with the famous cherry blossom bloom. The Red Bull driver switch, promoting Tsunoda alongside Max Verstappen and the demotion of Lawson to the Racing Bulls will provide a fascinating watch from the very first minute of Friday practice.

A range of scenarios are possible given the VCARB02 has debuted in 2025 in spectacular fashion. For the first time in his career, the Japanese driver has qualified his car in the top ten on three consecutive occasions and each time being way ahead of the number two Red Bull car.

The Racing Bulls should have way more points than their paltry three which is predominantly due to poor tyre strategy choices made by the team in both Australia and China. Despite this, their car looks to have front running pace amongst those outside the top four teams and with rookie Isack Hadjar pulling off a remarkable P7 in qualifying for the Chinese GP, expectations for the season in Faenza are high.

 

 

 

Verstappen worth 3/10ths

Lawson has been welcomed back with open arms by team boss Laurent Mekies and in a familiar environment the New Zealand born driver should refund his mojo in no time at all. Yet how good is the VCARB02? Some have suggested it is quicker than the RB21 given the qualifying results delivered.

When Liam Lawson joined Red Bull he was commissioned by the team’s advisor, Dr. Marko, he needed to be running about three tenths of a second behind the pace of his team mate. Its often cited that Max Verstappen brings this incremental lap time to any car he would drive and so for a relative newbie to F1, this was Lawson’s target.

Of course things turned out very differently than Red Bull and Marko thought possible, as the Kiwi struggled with the car down under in Melbourne. He crashed out having made a driver error in changeable conditions leaving him eagerly anticipating redemption in a few days time in China.

Two plumb last qualifying sessions in Shanghai were to prove decisive in Lawson’s fate and his P12 finish in the Grand Prix had to be tempered by the fact that three drivers ahead of him were disqualified.

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Racing Bulls 2/10ths behind Max

Meanwhile Yuki put his Racing Bull fifth on the grid in Melbourne, just under two tenths of a second behind Verstappen. Rookie Isack Hadjar delivered a similar feat in China as he put his VCARB02 seventh on the grid for the race on Sunday, again less than two tenths behind Verstappen.

This surely demonstrates that when it puts together an optimum lap, the 2025 Racing Bull is in fact quicker than the RB21 once the there tenths Max factor is taken into account. Yet the comparison is not quite so simple when analysing the long run pace of the two F1 car designs.

In race trim, the RB21 in Verstappen’s hands is in a different league to its sister team’s car. They tyre life is much better on the Red Bull and whilst some of this is driver input, it reveals more about the car’s ability to manage tyre degradation than anything.

Through the fast corners 9 & 10 in Melbourne, the RB21 had visibly more downforce and therefore grip. However, the Racing Bull was more compliant and the drivers were seen hustling it into turn 11 given its better balance and improved compliance. Verstappen by comparison was not hustling his car at all. It required a precise driving style and constant assessment of the feel of the car for him to deliver and challenge Norris as he did.

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Unpredictable Grid ahead for Red Bull

So Red Bull Racing may find themselves in a bizarre position come the Japanese Grand Prix. With Tsunoda finding his way in strange machinery, expectations for him to challenge Verstappen are almost zero. Further, the Japanese driver may well find himself in deficit to one or both drivers from his old Racing Bulls team when the dust has settled from the Saturday qualifying session.

Verstappen too, if he’s not on it, could find himself behind a Racing Bull come lights out on Sunday afternoon. The permutations for the four Red Bull controlled F1 cars whilst not endless are plausible to create an upset of sorts, with the Verstappen factor the only difference between the pace of both car designs.

The race on Sunday however should be the Racing Bull’s best chance of the year for a spectacular result. With Pirelli softening its tyre range for 2025 and the Japanese GP in 2024 substantially favouring a two stop race, the tyre degradation for the Racing Bulls will be less of a challenge.

Lawson will finally be returning to a circuit where he has previously competed and given his year in Japanese Super Formula he should know theSuzuka track payout like the back of his hand.

Marko given enough rope to hang himself

 

 

 

Tsunoda exudes confidence

Tsunoda’s attitude in China and his subsequent revelations about the RB21 not being ‘too tricky’ to drive are set to see him the star of the show in front of his home crowd. Meanwhile Red Bull are scrabbling together a unified pitch for the waiting media as difficult questions will be asked over how the team got their driver selection for 2025 so badly wrong.

The problem for the Milton Keynes based team is they are not unified and their ‘advisor’ Dr. Helmut Marko can be a loose cannon when presented with a microphone. The Austrian has been cited in more than twenty European F1 publications this week giving explanations galore, while team boss Christian Horner merely released a three paragraph statement the day Red Bull’s driver switch was announced.

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Red Bull junior programme questioned

Questions remain over the quality of the Red Bull junior racing programme which has failed to deliver a top top driver since Daniel Ricciardo back in the days of Sebastian Vettel’s domination of the sport. Should the Red Bull team detach itself from the Marko run programme and merely sign the best drivers’ available? Most paddock observers felt the team missed a trick in not signing Carlos Sainz to replace their outgoing Mexican driver and even the experienced Nico Hulkenberg was apparently on offer to the team too.

The Red Bull divisions are plain for all to see, as Christian Horner described the decision to recruit Lawson over Tsunoda as one which “split” the room, while Dr. Marko this week has obtusely called it “unanimous.”

Where the various four cars end up is anyone’s guess and with rain a 70% probability for the race on Sunday, another chaotic Japanese Grand Prix may well be in store ahead.

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Tsunoda identifies ‘how to do it differently’ from Lawson

With the third round of the 2025 Formula One season in Japan just days away, Red Bull senior management are bracing themselves for a media frenzy. With Liam Lawson dumped back to the Racing Bulls team and Yuki Tsunoda now Max Verstappen’s new team mate, a plethora of details will emerge over the saga the has been the RBR driver lineup.

Tsunoda was many peoples favourite to replace the outgoing Sergio Perez, but the Milton Keynes enclave decided he remained too volatile and instead opted for the apparent level headedness of their New Zealand born driver.

Well level headedness is now out and passion is in as Yuki eagerly anticipates competing in his home Grand Prix in a car capable of claiming the win, or more likely a podium…..READ MORE