New Zealander defiant as Red Bull decision looms – With the F1 paddock still digesting the fallout from the opening races of the 2025 season, Liam Lawson’s future at Red Bull is under serious threat. After two underwhelming performances in Melbourne and Shanghai, speculation is rife that the young New Zealander will be replaced ahead of the upcoming Japanese Grand Prix. And the name most associated with that seat? Yuki Tsunoda.
According to multiple reports from RTL/ntv, sport.de and other German media outlets, Lawson’s brief stint alongside Max Verstappen may already be coming to an end.
While there has still been no official statement from Red Bull, it appears that internal decisions have already been made. And that spells trouble for Lawson, as Tsunoda looks set to return to the senior team, on home soil no less.
But despite what appears to be a downward trajectory, Lawson is not going out quietly. Speaking after the Chinese Grand Prix, the 23-year-old fired a sharp verbal shot at Tsunoda. His message? He’s beaten him before and he can do it again.
F1 rookie review: “The good the bad and the ugly”
A familiar rivalry rekindled
“He can say whatever he wants,” said Lawson, responding to Tsunoda’s claim that the Red Bull is “100 per cent better” than the Racing Bull (formerly AlphaTauri, now VCARB).
“I raced against it in F1 and beat it. I raced against it for years in the junior series and always beat it.”
This claim doesn’t seem to be backed up by the numbers.
Lawson and Tsunoda’s on-track rivalry is nothing new. The two drivers have shared circuits going back to their days in the junior categories, including the 2019 Formula 3 season and, more recently, six Grand Prix events last year with Red Bull’s sister team. But in almost every head-to-head metric, Tsunoda has had the upper hand.
In those six joint races, Tsunoda outqualified Lawson every time. Sunday wasn’t much different, with Tsunoda leading in four of those six races.
Lawson did manage to get the better of Tsunoda in sprint qualifying and sprint races, winning two out of three in both formats, but the core statistics of Grand Prix qualifying and race day speak volumes.
Looking further back, the trend continues. In the 2019 FIA Formula 3 Championship, Lawson finished the season 11th overall. Tsunoda finished ninth, picking up a win along the way – something Lawson couldn’t manage this year.
Red Bull’s dilemma: performance vs. potential
With all of this in mind, Red Bull find themselves in a familiar dilemma: do they stick with an underperforming rookie with potential, or bring in a more experienced hand to stabilise the team’s season?
Red Bull has always been aggressive in its driver decisions. From the rapid promotion of Verstappen and Sebastian Vettel to the abrupt departures of Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon, the energy drink giants have never shied away from dramatic mid-season changes.
Indeed, Lawson’s own entry into F1 came under such circumstances – he stepped in for the injured Daniel Ricciardo in 2023, where he impressed with a ninth-place finish in Singapore.
But that early excitement quickly faded. After two full races and a sprint weekend in 2025, Lawson has failed to score a single point. Shanghai was particularly damning, as he finished not only behind his team-mate, but also several cars with less competitive machinery.
Red Bull are now considering turning to Tsunoda, who has been in consistent if unspectacular form. The Japanese driver, who will begin his F1 career in 2021, has ironed out many of the rough edges that initially defined his driving – improving his race craft, composure and qualifying performances.
Crucially, Tsunoda also brings marketing value, especially with the Japanese Grand Prix next on the calendar. His popularity at home, coupled with the narrative of a “home hero” racing in a top-tier car, makes for a tempting package both on and off the track.
Hamilton “leaks” poor Ferrari decision which caused DSQ
Lawson’s words: Courageous or costly?
Lawson’s public rebuttal of Tsunoda is not without risk. In an environment as politically charged as Red Bull Racing, speaking out against your potential replacement can either be seen as a sign of confidence – or an error of judgement.
If the team has already made the decision to replace him, Lawson’s comments could simply be chalked up to frustration. However, if there is still an element of indecision at the top of the Red Bull hierarchy, his dismissive tone could tip the scales against him.
It’s also worth remembering that Red Bull’s Helmut Marko and Christian Horner both value team harmony and respect for the team hierarchy. Publicly challenging a teammate – or potential teammate – could be seen as disruptive, however legitimate the claims may be.
But Lawson’s comments make one thing clear: he believes in his own ability and isn’t afraid to fight for his place. “I’ve beaten him everywhere,” he said. It may not fit the statistics perfectly, but it reflects a mindset that Red Bull has often championed – self-belief and a willingness to throw punches under pressure.
McLaren names biggest title threat
Decision time before Suzuka
The clock is ticking. With the Japanese Grand Prix fast approaching, Red Bull are expected to announce their plans soon. The optics of a Tsunoda homecoming in a Red Bull seat would be powerful, especially after years of solid service with the junior team.
If Lawson is indeed dropped, it will mark another swift and brutal decision in the long list of Red Bull’s driver management history. But if he somehow survives the axe, the pressure will only increase. Every lap, every qualifying session, every race finish will be under the microscope.
For now, Lawson’s words hang in the air: “I always beat him. True or not, they serve as a last-ditch argument to stay in the fight. Whether Red Bull will buy it is another matter.
What’s clear is that the battle between Tsunoda and Lawson is no longer confined to the track. With careers on the line, it’s as much about perception, politics and performance as it is about lap times. And in this arena, every word – and every millisecond – counts.
READ MORE – Lawson replacement named
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
