As reported last week, Tuesday 10th of November was D-Day for the F1 powers that be to make a final decision on whether to conclude the 2026 season by racing in the Middle East. Imola had been put on standby, and for several weeks grandstands and facilities have been erected at F1’s expense should the Grands Prix of Qatar and Abu Dhabi be cancelled.
Tensions remain high in the region, and travel recommendations vary by government and corporate policy. Last weekend,MotoGP raced at the Lusail circuit, where F1 is due to make camp on November 27–29. However, the decision to go there was not without controversy.
Some 70% of the riders had signed a petition to cancel the event, yet Liberty Media—which owns the commercial rights to the sport—along with F1 made it clear there would be penalties should teams or riders boycott the event.
Despite this, the Yamaha team elected not to go, citing the global corporate travel policy in place with their Japanese manufacturer. The weekend went off without incident, with Marc Márquez, the championship favourite, claiming a win in the Sprint and second in the Grand Prix.
FIA Stance and Driver Apprehensions
Today, FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem posted on social media: “The countdown is on for Qatar and Abu Dhabi,we are fully focused on delivering two exceptional grand prix weekends. We are working closely with our partners to ensure everything is in place for our drivers, teams and fans.
“We look forward to welcoming everyone for two thrilling weekends of racing and an unforgettable finish to the Formula 1 season.”
Formula One has kept the lid on the subject in the paddock, demanding that senior race team personnel do not comment or create conjecture on the topic. At the recent US Grand Prix in Texas, Carlos Sainz was asked for his thoughts on competing the F1 season in the war-torn region.
“I think they seem very convinced that it’s gonna go ahead,” he said of the prospect of racing in the Middle East. “I think,on my personal side and not speaking as [part of the] GPDA [Grand Prix Drivers’ Association], it’s very difficult to be convinced right now because there are still plenty of things happening in the Middle East, and also there is obviously an election that is going to happen in the U.S., and things that are going to happen on the political side of the world that could affect the next month and a half, very suddenly. So I think it’s relatively premature to be so convinced.”
Clearly someone in F1 was unhappy with this, as within the hour Williams released a statement on behalf of their driver which noted that the FIA and Formula 1 would put safety first and that he would “completely trust them to make the right decision.”
Max Verstappen had expressed similar concerns, but later clarified them, stating: “I said that I didn’t want to race there? I just said that I love going there, but, of course, under the right terms. But I trust that F1 and then the FIA will take the right decision because they will have more information than us, and that’s what we rely on.”
Yet his demeanour when making the comment appeared to suggest there was only one “right decision” which could be made. The F1 powers that be have bought themselves time by making this announcement during a weekend off in the end-of-season run-in. However, the topic will be hotly debated amongst the teams and drivers, given the potential life-and-death situation they could face.
Regional Realities and Defense Figures
The fact that the MotoGP weekend went without incident in Qatar is hardly surprising. Abu Dhabi may be a very different kettle of fish, given theirs is the Sunni sect of the Muslim faith, rather than the strict Shia views held by Iran.
Interestingly, yesterday saw the UAE Government Annual Meetings in Abu Dhabi, where the focus was on how well they had defended against regional attacks. The Armed Forces intercepted 2,875 drones, 705 ballistic missiles, and 37 cruise missiles, according to figures released on November 9. The government did not specify the dates covered by the tally,saying the military activated its defence systems amid “recent regional challenges”.
Of course, this may be a coincidence in timing, but the day before F1 decides on whether to visit Abu Dhabi or not felt a little convenient. The statement continued: “The UAE leadership has set a clear standard for all institutions and entities:that every individual must be able to live their daily life with peace of mind, regardless of the situation, and that protecting human life is a responsibility we all share.”
Assessing Risk vs. Reward
The question of whether F1 should race in the Middle East will be determined by the outcome. If all goes well, then the FIA and FOM will claim they made the right decision. Yet from a risk perspective, going to Qatar and Abu Dhabi is exactly that—a risk—something the FIA claims is not something it is prepared to take.
Despite a recent abatement in hostilities along with ongoing discussions, there remains a blockade of Iranian ports ensuring they cannot ship any oil—which is the lifeblood of their economy.
The risks in the region were confirmed yesterday by another UAE official. ”We should… prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted,” said Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic advisor to UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed.
The fact that F1 has issued all racetrack personnel with an evacuation plan and a map of buildings safe from bomb blasts in Lusail and Yas Marina is enlightening. These were not required for the recent São Paulo Grand Prix or the upcoming race in Las Vegas.
Several other global sporting events have been cancelled in the region, yet F1 believes it is safe to go race there and collect its hosting fees worth some $100m. Fingers crossed…
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The Judge, a nom de plume of an experienced F1 journalist and site founder with long-standing sources across the paddock. With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
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