Charles Leclerc emerged as the strongest contender for victory at the Mexican Grand Prix after Friday’s long-run simulations, but Isack Hadjar’s performance has provided an encouraging indication of Red Bull’s underlying race pace. Max Verstappen completed his simulation with damage to his car, potentially disguising his true speed and setting up another battle between Ferrari and Red Bull on Sunday.
Friday’s second practice session offered an important first look at the competitive picture for Sunday’s Mexican Grand Prix. However, unusually changing track conditions mean the long-run figures need to be treated with some caution.
As the afternoon progressed, track temperatures fell by more than ten degrees compared with the opening practice session. That significantly altered the conditions in which the teams conducted their race simulations.
Red Bull technical director Pierre Waché had already warned that the results might not provide a completely representative picture of Sunday’s race. Higher temperatures are expected to increase tyre degradation, potentially changing the competitive order.
Nevertheless, the data offered some interesting clues about which teams could fight for victory.
Antonelli’s Mercedes struggles to impress
Among the leading teams, Kimi Antonelli was the only driver to select medium tyres for his long-run simulation.
The Mercedes youngster’s decision produced the stint with the highest tyre degradation among the leading contenders. Although his figures are difficult to interpret because of the different tyre compound, his overall average was not particularly impressive.
George Russell also struggled to demonstrate Mercedes’ usual strength. Running on soft tyres, the Briton managed only one particularly competitive lap, recording a 1:20.7, while most of his remaining times were in the 1:21 range.
That could become a concern if temperatures rise over the remainder of the weekend. Mercedes has traditionally benefited from cooler conditions, and the higher temperatures anticipated for Sunday could work against the team.
McLaren still has work to do
McLaren appeared more competitive than it had during recent race weekends, but its long-run performance suggested that the team still has ground to make up.
Oscar Piastri was the slowest of the leading-team drivers during the simulations, while Lando Norris managed a better average.
However, neither McLaren driver could match the pace demonstrated by Leclerc.
That leaves McLaren with some work to do before Sunday’s race, particularly if Ferrari and Red Bull can reproduce their Friday performance.
Leclerc emerges as Ferrari’s leading contender
Leclerc delivered the strongest long-run average of the session, strengthening his position as a serious contender for victory.
The Ferrari driver has already demonstrated encouraging form with second-place finishes in Singapore and Austin. His Mexico performance suggests that momentum could be continuing.
For once, Leclerc appears to be more than simply Friday’s fastest driver. His long-run pace provides a convincing indication that Ferrari could have the machinery to fight for the win.
Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, did not complete a comparable race simulation after encountering problems with his SF-26.
Based on the available information, Hamilton appears to be some distance behind his team-mate and may have to concentrate on securing a podium rather than challenging for victory.
Hadjar reveals Verstappen’s hidden potential
Red Bull remains the biggest unknown following Friday’s running.
Verstappen completed his race simulation with damage to his car, which affected its balance. Waché explained that the problem compromised the car’s behaviour and consequently influenced tyre degradation.
While drivers can sometimes compensate for balance problems during a single qualifying lap, maintaining consistent performance over a longer stint is considerably more difficult.
That makes Verstappen’s long-run figures particularly interesting. Despite the damage, the Dutchman managed to produce competitive lap times while demonstrating relatively little deterioration across his stint.
Hadjar’s performance provided another important indication of Red Bull’s potential.
The Frenchman is generally considerably slower than Verstappen during races and race simulations. However, he recorded an average of approximately 1:21.3, a promising result given the usual difference between the two team-mates.
His stint was not particularly consistent, suggesting that there could be considerably more performance available from the Red Bull.
More importantly, Hadjar recorded the fastest individual lap of the entire race-simulation group, setting a 1:20.6. Verstappen, meanwhile, demonstrated the least deterioration in his lap times.
Taken together, those figures suggest that Red Bull could be considerably more competitive than its Friday performance initially indicated.
Verstappen versus Leclerc could decide Sunday’s race
Based on the available long-run data, Leclerc currently has the strongest claim to favourite status.
However, two drivers could potentially challenge the Ferrari star: Verstappen, if Red Bull can resolve the balance problems caused by the damage, and Antonelli, if Mercedes can extract more performance from its soft tyres.
The Italian’s prospects remain complicated by the possibility of higher track temperatures on Sunday.
For Verstappen, the encouraging performance from Hadjar suggests that Red Bull has genuine underlying pace. If the team can deliver a balanced car and Verstappen avoids trouble at the start, the four-time world champion could be Leclerc’s biggest challenger.
Friday’s simulations therefore point towards a potentially fascinating battle between Ferrari and Red Bull, with Mercedes still hoping to find the performance needed to join the fight.
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