Once again here we are reflecting on Grand Prix qualifying and Ferrari have once again flattered to deceive. Coming into the weekend the Italian team had high hopes for four significant upgrades on the car, which are set to be the final ones of the season.
Out of the box the SF-26 looked to be the class of the field with Charles Leclerc heading the time sheets in Free Practice 1 and 2. In the final practice it was Hamilton who was top dog, more than a tenth and a half of a second ahead of Max Verstappen who has been thereabouts all weekend.
In Q1, Leclerc was again the quickest, although by just 0.015 from Verstappen. The Monegasque driver was again the fastest in Q2, although Max Verstappen completed his one and only run on used soft tyres.
Yet come the final top-ten shootout, Ferrari were nowhere, finishing the session with Leclerc in P4 and Hamilton in P5 as Kimi Antonelli stormed to the head of the field claiming pole position for Sunday.
Leclerc’s Frustration: The Tiny Tyre Window
Leclerc spoke with a sense of resignation after the session in the media pen. He believed that despite the engine lacking pace on the straights when compared to certain rivals, Ferrari was in with a shout of pole position at the 2026 US GP.
“It’s very disappointing because I think there are some other weekends where we’ve been strong in free practice, but then coming to qualifying, it’s very clear that the others are just having a lot more in the straights, and it’s very difficult for us to match that,” Leclerc said. “But I felt like today, it’s a qualifying where we had the potential in the car. But the car also includes tyres. And in Q3, unfortunately, we were not in the right place.”
The Scuderia driver went on to explain the SF-26 remains a difficult machine to ensure the tyres are in the proper operating window. “It was like one or two degrees less in Q3, and for me, it was a huge difference. I was sliding quite a lot already, and that made it very difficult,” he concluded.
Yet Charles Leclerc was far less measured when completing the session over team radio. Having discovered P4 was the best he could achieve, Leclerc exploded: “Too much! F***! Too much front wing,” he ranted as reported by Scuderia Fans. “The tyres, for f*** sake, such a tiny window.
“It’s s***! It’s absolutely awful. Awful. It’s unbelievable. Crazy. I don’t even want to know [the gaps]. The last sector was horrible, with rear locking, rear limited.” For such a usually mild-mannered character, this was quite the rant.
Hamilton’s Calm Reflection
Hamilton was more reflective as once again he is set to start behind his teammate for the Grand Prix. The teammate headcount for this now stands 11-7 in favour of Leclerc this season. “We did a really good job overnight. The car felt really good in P3, competitive,” said Hamilton. “And then Q1 and Q2 both felt really strong. It felt like we were right there in the fight.”
“And then the car was just as good as it was, you know, we didn’t make any changes, the car didn’t flip upside down or anything in Q3. It was a really good lap, but those guys just somehow took another step. I don’t know what it is. I mean,ultimately we do lose—I think we’re a few tenths off on the straight as we usually are.”
Vasseur Dismisses Wind Excuses and Points Fingers
It seems that this was just as quick as the Ferraris could go, while others found something, like Kimi Antonelli who was quickest in the first qualifying session. Both Ferrari drivers referred to changes in the wind in Q3, but team principal Fred Vasseur was having none of this, calling it out as a ‘bullst’ excuse for the sudden loss of Ferrari pace. Rather it appeared he wished to pin the lack of performance on the drivers when he claimed it was at the final turn where the front row start was lost.
“There are mixed feelings for sure because I think the potential was there all over the weekend and we had good pace in all the free practice, and until the last corner, we were fighting for pole,” Vasseur claimed to Sky Sports F1. When it was suggested to him that his drivers were blaming the wind—at least in part—the Frenchman was dismissive.
“We can’t complain about the wind; this would be bullst, and we have to do a better job on the last lap, because we had the potential to be at least on the front row.” It appears for Fred this latest Ferrari failure sits with the drivers.
They are told the track temperatures by their engineers and a two-to-three-degree drop in heat levels should mean they compensate with a little more aggressive preparation of the tyres on the out-lap. Vasseur stated the wind was “a distraction for the drivers,” but went on to make the point, “but okay, it is the same for everybody.”
Race Strategy and Long-Run Outlook for Sunday
However, all is not lost for Ferrari when analysing the long runs they completed in FP2 at a similar time to when the race will be held. On the soft tyres Leclerc and Verstappen were reasonably matched with the Ferrari driver dipping into the 1:41s more frequently, but the Red Bull driver was more consistent.
The comparison for the medium tyre was from run plans driven by Hamilton and Hadjar. There the gap is more significant, with the seven-time world champion setting slightly quicker times. Yet as the tyres degrade it is Lewis who pops into the 1:42s more often than his Red Bull counterpart, meaning it’s all to play for come lights out on Sunday.
Pole sitter Kimi Antonelli is also in the mix, with times similar but a little slower than Leclerc. The problem for Kimi is there’s no George in the mix up front, and should the two tenths of incremental second degradation appear again in race form on the Mercedes, at some point the Ferrari and Red Bull duos will work together to take over the lead.
One from each team will pit early to get the undercut on the Mercedes whilst the other will stay out and cover off Antonelli’s strategy. That said, P2 has been a successful starting position in recent editions of the F1 Grand Prix in COTA; this is due to the fact the entry to the turn is wide and the top two can take different lines. Then it’s whoever gets the power on first who leads into turn 2.
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