With Red Bull appearing to have closed the gap to Mercedes at the recent Azerbaijan Grand Prix, much was expected of the Brackley-based team’s big final upgrade of the season for this weekend in Sepang. After the safety car restart in Baku, George Russell struggled to hold onto his lead from the rejuvenated Red Bull of Max Verstappen, and at the chequered flag, his win was the smallest in F1 for two decades—just 0.1 of a second.
Practice Reality Check in Sepang
As the Silver Arrows rolled out in the heat and humidity of the Malaysian sun, it quickly became apparent that the correlation between their expected gains from their simulations were way off. Yes, George Russell was second in first practice, but it was a whopping 0.383 seconds off Verstappen’s time.
Red Bull themselves brought a significant upgrade to their RB22 which worked well out of the box, and again in Sepang, in the hands of Max Verstappen, it appeared untouchable in the morning session. Come FP2, Verstappen did not do a qualifying simulation, preferring to try out his long-run pace on two sets of the medium tyres.
Charles Leclerc topped the timesheets with a 1:37.528 but was a mere whisker ahead (0.099s) of the RB22 in the hands of Isack Hadjar. Clearly, had Verstappen run the soft tyre, he would have been once again topping the timesheets.
Struggles Deepen in FP2
In the second session, things appeared to go from bad to worse for Mercedes, with George Russell down in P7, almost half a second off the time set by Leclerc. Antonelli was P8, a further tenth and a half of a second behind his teammate.
Mercedes trackside Director of Engineering, Andrew Shovlin, claimed after the sessions that both his drivers had made mistakes at the final corner and so the gulf in time to Ferrari was not representative. However, of greater concern was the long-run pace of the Mercedes drivers, who suffered from overheating tyres and excessive degradation.
“We were running the latest update package on both cars today, but rather than seeing the step in lap time that we had hoped for, we have been chasing a tricky balance and a fair amount of tyre overheating,” Shovlin confirmed. This showed the level of confidence the team had in their last big upgrade of the season, as teams often run one driver with the ‘old’ car and the other with the new parts.
Challenging Track Conditions and Tyre Woes
However, their confidence appeared misplaced. In FP1 the cars were not similarly configured, but by FP2 they were both running similar setups. “For FP2, we had both cars in a representative configuration, and it looked like we were still trailing, especially to the Red Bull,” lamented Shovlin. Yet he believes overnight analysis and some new simulations back at Brackley may improve matters for Saturday.
It has been nine years since F1 last raced in Sepang, and Valtteri Bottas revealed the track was nothing like the last time he was there. It was very low grip, and the surface appeared to be crumbling when the cars completed their slowdown laps and everyone picked up small stones on their hot rubber before the practice starts at the end of each session.
Mercedes’ achilles’ heel in recent years has been at high-degradation circuits, where they suffer excessive tyre wear. This was something George Russell confirmed had happened on day one in Malaysia.
“With these warm conditions, combined with the aggressive tarmac and the characteristics of the circuit, the tyre degradation throughout practice was high.” Of course, Mercedes’ upgrade will have increased the points of downforce on their car, which for now only appears to have worsened the tyre degradation of the W17.
“With the amount of overheating on the tyres, it slightly neutralises the performance of any extra downforce we’ve added with our update,” Russell confirmed. “The cars are operating in quite a different window to what we usually do, and I don’t think we quite got ours into the place that we needed today.”
The Technical Breakdown
Sky F1’s technical analyst, Bernie Collins, gave her impressions: “A very ominous-looking set of upgrades for this Mercedes car. It’s all starting in this front floor area; the front floor fences have been changed, as has the entire floor body, the side of the floor, and it’s all about leading airflow to the rear duct area.
“The sidepod also has more downwash in order to improve the flow to the rear suspension. Also, upgraded fairings on that suspension as well and the back end of the floor. All to do with trying to generate more downforce, more load, more efficiently in more of the working windows, so through more of the corner speeds,” she added.
But her expectations for how much pace the upgrades would deliver were crushed out on track, given her prediction was that “this Mercedes [is] really the one to beat this weekend, and one all of the teams will be keeping a very close eye on through these practice sessions to see how good these upgrades are and how strong the lap time looks.”
Looking Ahead to Qualifying and Race Day
In short, there will be significant concern within the Mercedes F1 team this evening. On the qualifying runs, the gap to the front was too big for an overnight setup tweak to bridge. Then on the long runs, the tyre degradation and the pace of Mercedes was over a second a lap slower than Max Verstappen, which does not bode well for the Grand Prix on Sunday.
Ferrari, on the other hand, has designed its SF-26 to be particularly gentle on its tyres, which bodes well for Leclerc and Hamilton in Sunday’s Grand Prix. Leclerc’s one-lap pace suggests the Ferraris are in the running for pole position on Saturday, and their long-run pace suggests they have less tyre degradation than the Mercedes duo.
All in all, both qualifying and the race should be fascinating as F1 makes its return to the circuit where the famous “Multi-21” row between Red Bull drivers Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber occurred.
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A.J. Hunt is Senior Editor at TJ13, where Andrew oversees editorial standards and contributes to the site’s Formula 1 coverage. A career journalist with experience in both print and digital sports media, Andrew trained in investigative journalism and has written for a range of European sports outlets.
At TJ13, Andrew plays a central role in shaping the site’s output, working across breaking news, analysis, and long-form features. Andrew’s responsibilities include fact-checking, refining editorial structure, and ensuring consistency in reporting across a fast-moving news cycle.
Andrew’s work focuses particularly on the intersection of Formula 1 politics, regulation, and team strategy. Andrew closely follows developments involving the FIA, team leadership, and driver market dynamics, helping to provide context behind the sport’s biggest stories.
With experience covering multiple seasons of Formula 1’s modern hybrid era, Andrew has developed a detailed understanding of how regulatory changes and competitive shifts influence the grid. Andrew’s editorial approach prioritises clarity and context, aiming to help readers navigate complex developments within the sport.
In addition to editorial duties, Andrew is particularly interested in how media narratives shape fan perception of Formula 1, and how reporting can balance speed with accuracy in an increasingly digital news environment.
