A Geopolitical Bind for Formula 1
Formula 1 has got itself into a bind, selling four of its 24 races a year to wealthy Middle Eastern race promoters. The region has been one of the most unstable areas of the world for decades, with proxy wars being fought by Iran’s subsidized terror groups.
Matters came to a crunch this year when mass protests over the cost of living were staged in January, with the response from the Islamist regime being to slaughter an estimated 30,000 of its own citizens.
Military Conflict and Regional Escalation
The US and Israel also claimed at the time that the regime was close to achieving a nuclear weapon and set about a “shock and awe” bombing campaign, which was hoped would bring about regime change.
The Iranian authorities responded by attacking their own Arab neighbors who hosted US forces at bases in the Middle East. An attack on the Bahraini US base early in the conflict rendered it inoperable—and with it went the hope of F1 racing there in a few weeks’ time.
Cancelled Races and Emergency Replacements
Both the Saudi and Bahraini Grands Prix were canceled, although the latter has been relocated and will run at the former Sepang circuit in Malaysia during September. There was hope US President Donald Trump would run scared of the midterm elections this November and shut down his campaign against Iran prior to polling.
Yet this now appears to be a forlorn hope, with Trump doubling down on his blockade of Iranian ports. This is an effort to bring the country to its knees through financial ruin, but it will not be the work of a few weeks.
The Search for Contingency Venues
The 2026 Formula 1 season is set to conclude with back-to-back races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi; however, this will not be possible during the ongoing conflict in the region. It’s time for F1 to make a decision over canceling these races and finding at least one replacement to ensure the calendar remains at no less than 22 race weekends.
The financial impact on F1 is considerable, with second-quarter operating income falling a massive 75% when compared to the same period in 2025. The teams have also taken a hit in terms of prize money, which has so far this year fallen by $127M to a total of $500M during the first half of the year.
Broadcaster Rebates and Late-Season Logistics
So far, TV revenue has been unaffected, but should the number of race weekends fall below 22, then the plethora of global broadcasters will be entitled to a rebate. With the cancellation of Qatar and Abu Dhabi almost inevitable, F1 bosses must find at least one more race promoter to replace the Middle Eastern venues.
While both Imola and Portimão have been mooted as potential hosts for the season finale, the European weather in December is often cold and could even feature snow. Istanbul Park has been suggested as another potential option, although the revenue from a hastily arranged race in Turkey would be minimal compared to the lost hosting fees from the wealthy Arab countries.
Planning Ahead for 2027
Formula 1 will find a fudge to ensure it is not refunding the broadcasters, but a bigger question now looms: What is happening for 2027? It is around this time of year that the F1 schedule is announced for the following season, and F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali recently addressed the potential decisions the sport will need to make and when.
“In case the situation in the Middle East is not solved, we have options, different plans [for 2027]. But the trigger for that, of course, is at the end of the year, so we have still a lot of time to adjust,” said Domenicali. Yet time is in fact short, given the logistics required to start an F1 season. Pirelli ships its tires some three months ahead of time for the opening flyaway races, and the teams have a variety of equipment that is also sent by sea.
Should the Iran situation be ongoing, Domenicali suggests “F1 is a marginal point on which we should be worried marginally because the situation will be very bad. Just to assure you, we have different plans with different options already in place that will accommodate the fact that we will keep, in any case, the target of 24 races also for next year.”
A Return to European Stability
F1’s CEO notes that negotiations are “progressing well in Africa and we are having other discussions in South America. We have discussions in the Far East.” Yet none of these events will be capable of hosting an F1 race before 2028 at the earliest. Having spurned its homelands in Europe in recent years for the allure of Arab money, it appears the stability offered by European countries is now returning to favor in the eyes of F1’s moneymen.
Somewhat surprisingly, Domenicali commented: “We are watching the growth in Europe because it’s becoming an important market again because the numbers are there.” He claims Hockenheim has contacted F1 with renewed interest in hosting a revived German GP.
Portimão will return to the F1 calendar next season, as the Dutch Grand Prix will be dropped due to a lack of funding. Spa and Barcelona are going on a permanent biannual rotation; however, they could enjoy a reprieve due to the empty slots on the F1 calendar. Imola could also see a return to the schedule alongside Istanbul Park, which is now under new management.
The cost of the Iran war to F1’s commercial rights-holders has been enormous, and it appears the future for the sport may well be without racing in this troubled region of the world
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Istanbul Park’s matter regarding a possible earlier-than-planned return as a late-season Middle East stand-in is actually solely about facility renovations ahead of its planned return & the same apparently for Algarve.
Therefore, if Algarve is a non-option, Jerez should be the priority as another South Iberian location, but it clearly doesn’t seem to be a strong contender any more than in the COVID era.
Montmelo is the next best viable location, & therefore, should definitely be ahead of Imola.
Based on what was established in 2020, 15 is the minimum for broadcasting fees, unless it’s indeed risen to 22 since, which certainly wasn’t the case in the COVID era.
The Middle East situation could very well also affect next season & looking for longer term, an Argentine GP return would be at least largely reliant on private sector funding & the same two African locations don’t seem any more concrete than before, not to mention I struggle to think what other locations could be viable options in the Far East.
Hockenheim has had informal talks every now & then anyway, so nothing more concrete than on previous similarly reported occasions, not to mention they’d actually attempt to host GPs again only if it made sense economically.
why havent the amerikkkan & zionist sponsors, teams, and races, been banned from F1¿!¿ they had no problem doing it when it was a country of white people being invaded… why not this time¿!¿