Rumours surrounding Max Verstappen, Fernando Alonso and several other Formula 1 drivers have dominated the headlines in recent weeks. However, despite expiring contracts and widespread speculation, F1.com correspondent Lawrence Barretto believes the 2027 grid could look remarkably similar to the current one.
According to Barretto, only one significant change is currently expected, with Haas potentially replacing Esteban Ocon. The forecast would represent a surprisingly quiet driver market given the number of drivers whose futures have been discussed during the summer.
Haas could make the biggest change
Barretto expects Esteban Ocon’s time at Haas to come to an end, potentially creating one of the few openings on the 2027 grid.
Ferrari junior Ollie Bearman is expected to retain his Haas seat for a third season. The second seat, however, could go to another Ferrari-backed prospect in Rafael Camara.
The Brazilian is reportedly ahead of Formula 2 champion Leonardo Fornaroli in the race for the opportunity. Fornaroli is currently a test and development driver for McLaren and is also targeting a future Formula 1 seat.
That would leave Haas as the only team currently expected to make a significant driver change, according to Barretto’s assessment.
Most teams could keep their line-ups
Several teams have been surrounded by driver-market speculation, but Barretto does not currently expect major changes.
At Alpine, Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly are expected to remain together. Williams could also retain Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz despite recent speculation about Sainz’s future.
Sainz’s situation has attracted particular attention, but the lack of obvious alternatives could ultimately work in his favor. The Spaniard could therefore remain alongside Albon for another season.
Audi, Racing Bulls and Cadillac are likewise expected to stick with established drivers, although their 2027 line-ups have not yet been officially confirmed.
One potential exception is Red Bull junior Nikolas Tsolov, who Barretto identifies as a candidate for a Racing Bulls opportunity.
Alonso and Verstappen remain the key questions
The biggest unresolved situation could involve Fernando Alonso.
The Aston Martin veteran is yet to decide whether he will continue with the team, and Barretto’s assessment suggests that only an Alonso departure would be capable of significantly reopening the driver market.
A similar situation surrounds Max Verstappen at Red Bull.
Although the four-time world champion has repeatedly been linked with a possible move, his current contract runs until 2028. Barretto does not currently see an obvious route to Mercedes, Ferrari or McLaren, meaning Verstappen could ultimately remain with Red Bull despite the continued speculation.
For now, therefore, the 2027 driver market appears to contain considerably more rumors than actual movement.
That could change quickly if Alonso decides to leave Aston Martin or another top-team seat unexpectedly becomes available. Until then, however, Barretto’s assessment points towards a remarkably stable Formula 1 grid for 2027.
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Alex Stanton is a Formula 1 journalist at TJ13 with a focus on the financial and commercial dynamics that underpin the sport. Alex contributes reporting and analysis on team ownership structures, sponsorship trends, and the evolving business model of Formula 1.
At TJ13, Alex covers topics including manufacturer investment, cost cap implications, and the strategic direction of teams navigating an increasingly complex financial environment. Alex’s work often examines how commercial decisions translate into on-track performance and long-term competitiveness.
With a strong interest in the intersection of sport and business, Alex provides context around Formula 1’s global growth, including media rights, expansion markets, and manufacturer influence.
Alex’s reporting aims to explain the financial realities behind headline stories, helping readers understand how money, governance, and strategy shape the competitive order in Formula 1.
Nothing surprising actually, let alone major, as this is exactly how I’ve expected things to happen for a while, i.e., only marginal changes, if any, because unlike many people, I’ve actually been fully realistic & reasonable about my expectations for the driver market regarding next season, simply because the direction of travel has consistently pointed towards a largely or totally unchanged grid.
Additionally, I also see Ocon getting replaced by Camara as the only change from this season, not to mention Barretto’s reference about Camara is fully in line with Alessio Auriemma’s exclusive article last month about his Haas drive & he’s the very first person to report about Lindblad’s Vcarb move in July last year via a similar exclusive, so he has a precedent for reliable & accurate advance driver move reporting.
The single most reliable publication for driver move reporting, AMuS, has only mentioned Camara in Haas context as Ocon’s direct successor, which also speaks volumes about the direction of travel regarding this team in particular.
Finally, just because several drivers could be out of contract simultaneously doesn’t mean people should expect lost of changes since teams won’t change for the sake of changing anyway.