Last Updated on December 2 2025, 11:37 pm
As the current generation of ground effect Formula One cars comes to a close, there is one race weekend remaining at the Abu Dhabi Yas Marina Circuit. The drivers’ title race remains a three way contest following McLaren’s mighty mistake at the recent Qatar Grand Prix.
As Red Bull updated and fine tuned their RB21 since the summer break, the once all mighty McLaren MCL39 has been beaten by Max Verstappen in five of the last eight Grand Prix outings. McLaren by way of contrast stopped developing their 2025 car at the end of the European racing season in Monza, although they have brought some track specific revised components a handful of weekends.
Whilst the Verstappen charge back from 104 points behind the the leader Oscar Piastri was in full flow, McLaren team boss Andrea Stella insisted some of the reasons for his resurgence was track specific, at venues where the team did not expect their drivers to be dominant.
Tracks where McLaren excel
Las Vegas was one in particular, along with Baku and Mexico. Stella believed Brazil would prove a good stomping ground and Lando Norris did win the Grand Prix, but noted his car was slower than Verstappen’s which started from the pit lane and finished third, just 10 seconds shy of the winner.
Other circuits highlighted by Stella this year as favouring the MCL39 included Saudi Arabia, Imola and Japan which feature high speed corners and Qatar was top of McLaren’s list for a runway weekend.
Having dominated both qualifying sessions at the Losail circuit and with Piastri claiming a comfortable victory in the Sprint, McLaren were set for an afternoon of glory as both their drivers started on the front row.
Yet a disastrous strategy call from the team saw McLaren opt to stay out when a safety car was deployed on lap seven, whilst every other driver changed tyres during the delay. Its rare in F1 for a team to do something completely different to the rest of the field and get it right – and in Qatar this was no exception.
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Qatar should have been fortress McLaren
The 26 seconds of race time Verstappen saved by pitting under the safety car quickly became the deciding factor and McLaren had misjudged the incremental race pacer they thought they had over their chief rival.
Qatar should have been fortress McLaren, but became fortuitous in one respect, as Lando Norris nipped past Kimi Antonelli on the penultimate lap to claim fourth place as the chequered flag fell.
This may prove crucial for Norris who had he remained in P5, could have lost the championship to Verstappen if he finished just third and the Dutchman claimed the victory in Abu Dhabi. Now Lando needs to finish in P3 and is guaranteed to be the 2025 F1 drivers’ champion.
But who will the Yas Marina circuit favour this coming weekend? Looking at past victor’s it was Lando Norris who claimed McLaren’s first win at the circuit in 2024. Prior to that Verstappen had won on the previous four visits to the Emirate state.
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Yas Marina quite different from Qatar
However even McLaren were not really at the races prior to last season, there is a better guide to who is likely to enjoy their outing during the desert sunset. Whilst Qatar with its fast sweeping turns is the track which best suits the MCL39, the Yes Marina layout is quite different.
In terms of the surface, its good news for McLaren given its very smooth unlike in Las Vegas where the bumps along the Strip wore away the ski blocks of the MCL39’s rendering them both illegal as the FIA scrutineered the cars in parc ferme.
Like Qatar, the grip level is high but the asphalt is less abrasive. If Losail is highly abrasive then Yes Marina is just medium. This mitigates some of the MCL39’s advantage over the RB21, which often has resulted in worse tyre degradation for Verstappen. That said Verstappen’s tyre wear last time out in Losail was much better than expected.
In Qatar, the problem tyre is the front left, given the number of high speed right hand corners which make up the configuration. In Abu Dhabi, the tyre challenges are somewhat different. It is in the final slow and twisty sector where traction is key where the rear tyres can suffer from some thermal degradation.
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Efficiency vs Dynamics
That said, this year’s Pirelli compound have been much improved at circuits where thermal degradation has previously been an issue for the drivers. Whilst Losail would satisfy any high speed junkie, Yas Marina is more Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
The speeds are very high in the second sector and interrupted by a huge breaking zone into the infamous chicane where Lewis Hamilton overtook Max Verstappen off track and went unpunished early in the epic that was the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
In the fast sector two the aerodynamic efficiency is far more important than the vehicle dynamics and this is something the RB21 enjoys in abundance over its McLaren rival. McLaren have dominated this season at venues where their far superior vehicle dynamics have been the deciding factor. This has been achieved by their sophisticated front suspension design which non of the teams have been able to replicate.
Vehicle dynamics matters far less in Abu Dhabi than does the Red Bull superior aerodynamic efficiency.
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McLaren on the back foot
Should Max be, or get ahead of a McLaren car, Piastri or Norris will find it very difficult to make a pass on the RB21 sector 2, the main overtaking opportunity. To counter this, McLaren may try to run a skinnier rear wing than the Red Bull car, but this will conversely affect their tyre wear in the twisty, traction crucial sector three.
All things considered, despite coming sixth in 2024, the Yas Marina Bay circuit looks to be a happy hunting ground for Red Bull and Max Verstappen, with the RB21’s slippery design, excellent straight line speed and more efficient DRS system all combining in perfect harmony.
Then there’s the ability of the RB21 to generate huge amounts of energy through its rear tyres, which will be gold in sector three but a times we may hear Max complaining about the natural understeer which is induced.
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Watch out for Williams
Tyre wear and therefore race pace should be neutral in terms of both teams, although they will if possible spend more time than usual working on race simulations and setup during the three practice sessions. Further the balance issues which plagued Max Verstappen at the 2024 race at Yas Marina have largely been solved due to the Monza floor upgrade in September this year.
The other spanner in the works for McLaren maybe the slick design of the FW47 Williams, which will also be tough to beat in sector two. However, unless there’s some first corner carnage to put a McLaren behind a Williams car, the resurgent team from Grove will probably not have the one lap pace to start ahead of the McLaren’s.
Whilst the title race is Lando’s to lose – given he needs to finish just P3 to be crowned F1 driver champion – the course by which McLaren steer their weekend will be a challenge and all the while Red Bull and Verstappen will be plotting their downfall.
Italian report: Vasseur given just 5 GP in 2026 to turn Ferrari around
Were the drivers title race settled, the Formula One headlines would be filled with articles about the future of Ferrari and their team boss. Fred Vasseur was given a contract extension to the end of 2027 in the summer, although many Italian observers believe it was to shut down the headlines surrounding Christian Horner taking the team principal role in Maranello.
There remain huge question marks in Italy over Vasseur’s ability to turn things around at the Scuderia. Since the announcement of Fred’s new contract prior to the Hungarian, the team have scored just 122 points across nine weekends, yet four of those included Sprint races and extra points.
After a double DNF in Brazil and a miserable outing in Qatar, the Scuderia are planted in fourth place in the constructors’ championship and Lewis Hamilton is in danger of dropping out of the top six drivers…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
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