Whilst the Formula One teams are battling with the biggest ever change to the technical regulations for 2026, Pirelli too is having to make tough decisions on the appropriate turn compounds required for the new generation of cars and powertrains.
The broad plan within the new design rules is to reduce the current levels of downforce by around 25%. This means the current aero ‘monsters’ will be banished and the teams must improve the mechanical grip on their cars with improved braking systems to ensure the rotation of the car is delivered following the entry page into the turns.
This was why Ferrari opted to scrap their almost title winning car from 2024, switching their front suspensions layout from push rod to pull rod. It has not proven to be a particularly successful change. Red Bull too have continued the development of their RB21 late in the year in an effort to improve the correlation between the drawing board and what finally appears on the car several weeks later.
Pirelli predicts downforce levels to rise
Of course the lower downforce cars should in theory make Pirelli’s job somewhat more simple, although getting the balance right between tyres which don’t fail but retain the degradation characteristics to ensure strategic options during the races is tricky.
The Italian rubber manufacturer requested early estimates from the teams of their end of 2026 expected levels of downforce. The teams consistently upgrade their cars throughout the year meaning they can sometimes be around 2 seconds quicker than the versions which hit the track for pre-season testing.
These predicted down force levels form the basis for Pirelli’s decisions over how much load their tyres must be able to withstand load and with the tyre specification remaining the same throughout there season, the team’s final estimates are from where Pirelli estimates the potential loads.
When asked about the process, Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola explained to Motorsport.com: “That is our request, yes. All teams must give us a prediction of their expected loads for the end of next season,”
Pecking order already known?
Of course, the early predictions from the teams varied significantly, but Isola believes this doesn’t automatically mean the field will be widely spread. “I don’t believe that those simulations are telling us what the competitive order for next year will be. The numbers are far from that to be honest. They are just simulations showing the expectations of the teams, not the real performance that we see on track,” he says.
Isola was asked whether the team’s estimated downforce levels are an indicator as to who will be quickest on track. “I’ve already read articles saying, ‘with this in mind we already know who will be fastest’. No, reality is completely different. Even if you have a higher load at the front or at the rear, that still doesn’t mean you will be quicker. That also depends on drag levels and on many other factors, so it’s not that those simulations define the competitive order.”
Joking, Pirelli’s head of motorsport added: “So basically, I can already tell you who is going to be the winner next year! But unfortunately, it’s not like that, or maybe I should say: luckily, it’s not like that!”
Why does Pirelli need to be conservative?
In a sport that’s so often data managed within an inch of its life, the unpredictability of 2026 will have the fans salivating all winter long. Whilst Pirelli’s starting point is complicated due to the wide range of downforce predictions, Isola explains how the Italian company navigated that.
“In the first part of the development, it was not a big issue because we targeted the integrity of the tyre based on the highest simulations. The difficult part of the job is when you’re in the process of defining the compounds, because that also depends on the energy and load.”
Mario recognises the predicaments some of the teams find themselves in when providing these simulations. And for Pirelli they prefer to prepare for the worst case scenarios as Mario outlines. “It’s difficult for teams to come with reliable simulations, but we need those numbers. We cannot start with a tyre that is okay for loads at the beginning of the season, but not for the end of the season. In that case we have to increase the tyre pressure by a huge amount, because we need to support the construction. We prefer to design a tyre that’s in line with the expectations for the end of the season.”
Rubber that will work to a wider window of operation
Pirelli believes the spread of the downforce predictions from the team will close up before the F1 tyre supplier commits to homologating the range for 2026. “That has happened in the past as well, for example when we introduced the 18-inch tyre. At that point, we have already homologated the tyres for 2026, but we can still use that information to make our compound selection for all races.”
Pirelli have stated their objective for 2026 is to deliver a range of tyre compounds which operate across a wider window than previously. “We started the development with the C3 as our baseline, as that one is in the middle of the range. We started to design a C3 with the same hardness as the current C3, and then moved to the others. We tried to enlarge the gaps with the other compounds.”
This year Pirelli has attempted to artificially widen the gaps between the nominated hard tyre and the medium/soft by selecting on a number of occasions a hard tyre which is not consecutive with the medium and soft in the six compound range.
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Pirelli will decide the pecking order?
In Mexico and Brazil this forced the teams to avoid the hard tyre compound despite its longevity it was too slow. This did open the opportunity for around half the teams to two stop instead of just once.
“If for any reason the cars are not as fast at the beginning of the season as predicted, then the range of compounds is probably a bit on the hard side,” admits Isola. “But in that scenario we can still select softer compounds for specific races.”
Yet this is easier said than done, given the tyres for Australia, China and Japan are shipped by sea just days after the final weekend of the 2025 season. Whilst all the focus for 2026 is on the new car designs and powertrains, Pirelli as always will have a big say in the pecking order which will depend on which car designs are kinder to their tyres.
Yet it appears the early races will see conservative selections of rubber from Pirelli and so fans must hope the excitement in the races comes from the drivers failing to understand their new role – as an energy manager as well as a race.
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