Red Bull’s future plans have been uncovered as a shock 2026 driver shakeup emerges – While Max Verstappen is laser-focused on winning his fifth Formula 1 world championship, behind the scenes at Red Bull Racing, the conversation has already shifted to 2026, and what is being discussed is nothing short of a bombshell. According to Auto, Motor und Sport, the Austrian team is quietly laying the groundwork for a radically restructured driver line-up that would see the back of a familiar face in the Red Bull driver pool: Yuki Tsunoda.
In early 2025, Liam Lawson was promoted to a full-time seat in the senior Red Bull team, a move that was seen as both bold and logical. After impressing with his stand-in performances during the 2023 and 2024 seasons — notably by scoring points under pressure and displaying a calm maturity — Lawson was finally selected to partner Max Verstappen following Sergio Pérez’s departure. However, the fairytale quickly unravelled.
After just two races, the team made a ruthless decision — typical of its no-nonsense driver policy — replacing Lawson with the more experienced Yuki Tsunoda, whose stock had quietly risen thanks to consistent performances at Racing Bulls. Tsunoda’s familiarity with the Red Bull structure, improved composure and technical maturity convinced the team bosses that he could better support Verstappen in the fight for the championship.
For Lawson, the abrupt demotion was a harsh reminder of how unforgiving Red Bull’s revolving door can be, and of how one misstep at the top level can end a dream in an instant.
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The End of the Road for Tsunoda
Sources suggest that Tsunoda, who has been a key part of the Red Bull driver development programme since 2021, could be without a seat in the Red Bull setup by 2026.
Despite occasional brilliance and vocal support from within the team, the 25-year-old appears to be running out of time and political capital.
The problem for Tsunoda is twofold. Firstly, while his on-track performances have on occasion been solid, they have not been compelling or consistent enough to secure his seat at in senior team. His modest progress this season, with seven points from seven races with Red Bull Racing, is not enough to close the gap to his teammate, and he risks the same fate as those who preceded him and were ultimately discarded. Secondly, his once crucial safety net, Honda, will soon disappear. The Japanese engine manufacturer, his strongest ally within the Red Bull fold for a long time, is switching allegiance to Aston Martin from 2026, taking with it a major pillar of Tsunoda’s support.
Without Honda lobbying on his behalf, Tsunoda will become just another driver, and in a Red Bull programme with other rising stars, that is a dangerous position to be in.
A youth revolution in motion
As Red Bull looks to the future, a new generation is being prepared for the big time. Leading the charge is French rookie Isack Hadjar, who could find himself catapulted into the senior Red Bull seat alongside Verstappen as early as this season. Despite still being in the early stages of his career having only just started in Formula 1, Hadjar is already being whispered about in the corridors of Milton Keynes as a serious option.
Meanwhile, the sister team, Racing Bulls, is expected to undergo its own generational reset. Liam Lawson is widely considered a near-certainty for continuing on with a full-time seat at the junior team. He could be joined by Arvid Lindblad, a precociously talented teenager who has been making waves in the junior categories. If realised, this plan would see Racing Bulls fielding a pair of rookies or near-rookies, a bold, or perhaps desperate, move suggesting that Red Bull is keen to breathe new life into its driver programme.
No room at the inn
So where does this leave Tsunoda? With Honda’s move to Aston Martin, many believed that a seat might open up at the Silverstone-based squad after he exits. However, this option appears to be off the table for the time being. Fernando Alonso has recently signed a contract extension, and Lance Stroll’s position is secure because his father owns the team. Even if Honda pushes for a Japanese driver, there is no indication that Aston Martin would bench either of their current stars to make room.
This considerably narrows Tsunoda’s options. While other F1 teams might consider him, without the Red Bull or Honda connection his appeal drops considerably. He would need to perform exceptionally well in the second half of the 2025 season to put himself back in contention, either within Red Bull’s plans or elsewhere on the grid.
Red Bull’s support… For now
Despite the bleak outlook, Tsunoda isn’t without allies. Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s long-standing motorsport advisor, is known for nurturing and ruthlessly pruning young talent. He continues to publicly support the Japanese driver. Speaking recently, Marko emphasised the need to give Tsunoda time and space.
“The only thing we can do is give him time and support, and help him find a setup he trusts,” he said.
“When driving these cars, trust is the most important thing, and he has to find that. I think he’ll make it. He’s fast. We keep seeing glimpses of his speed. He just needs to put it all together.”
While such words offer some comfort, Red Bull has never been known for its patience, especially when there are younger, hungrier and arguably more marketable drivers waiting in the wings.
Rumours and denials
Amidst the growing speculation, rumours have even emerged that Red Bull might accelerate the transition and replace Tsunoda with Hadjar before the end of the current season. However, these rumours have been firmly dismissed by team principal Christian Horner, who insists that it’s too early to judge Tsunoda’s fate.
“It’s still early days for Yuki. He needs to settle in,” Horner stated.
This is a carefully worded message — part reassurance, part warning — which highlights the precariousness of Tsunoda’s position.
Red Bull has always made its decisions with ruthless clarity, and unless Tsunoda begins to outperform his teammate consistently and score meaningful points, his position may already be untenable.
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What comes next?
The next few months will be critical. With contract discussions looming across the grid and multiple young drivers making compelling cases for promotion, Tsunoda has only a handful of races left to change the narrative. A mid-season surge, a standout qualifying lap or even a podium finish could force a rethink. Otherwise, he is facing the very real possibility that 2025 will be his final full-time season in Formula 1.
For now, all eyes remain on Red Bull and Racing Bulls — two teams set for major changes, which are likely to have a ripple effect throughout the paddock. While Max Verstappen is fighting for more trophies, Red Bull is already laying the groundwork for the post-Honda era — and for Yuki Tsunoda, that future is rapidly slipping out of reach.
Time, as ever in Formula 1, is running out.
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
