Red Bull in P4 has a silver lining – Red Bull Racing were formed from the ashes of the Ford owned Jaguar F1 Racing team in 2005 and despite the recruitment of Adrian Newey spent four years before they claimed a top four finish in the constructors’ championship. Since that second place in 2009, Red Bull have just once finished the year in P4 or below.
Their worst result since of fourth was in 2015 when Daniel Ricciardo and Russian Danny Kvyat were driving for the team, which that season was battling with an underpowered Renault power unit.
Now the six times world champions find themselves languishing in P4 after the recent Spanish Grand Prix, where Yuki Tsunoda failed to score and Verstappen suffering a penalty post the chequered flag, was classified in P10 scoring just a single point.
Red Bull P4 just once in a decade
For a team which has been top three for just short of a decade this is hardly the place the Red Bull management hoped they would find themselves as the second third of the 2025 campaign begins. The special advisor to the team has repeatedly stated this year is all about wining the drivers’ championship for ax Verstappen, who wold become only the second driver only to Michael Schumacher to win five consecutive titles in a row.
Yet Verstappen’s battles against the might of the McLaren’s this year has been a one sided affair with the world champion scoring just two race wins in first nine weekends of racing, something which last happened way back in 2020.
Now 49 points adrift of championship leader Oscar Piastri, the plan of hanging on in there until the RB21 improves is looking a touch frayed. Yet there’s a silver lining for the team as just two races remain before the end of June. Then the FIA resets the order of its aero handicap system, where the teams from top to bottom receive incrementally more time in the wind tunnel than those above them.
Having finished the 2024 season in third place, Red Bull have already since January have enjoyed an advantage over McLaren and Ferrari in terms of CFD and wind tunnel time. “We hate finishing third in the championship, but the additional windtunnel time that comes with that is the only upside in a year where there is such a dramatic regulatory change [coming, in 2026],” said Horner last year in Abu Dhabi.
Over 20% more aero time than McLaren
“It’s a constant balancing act and if you are in the title battle, inevitably your development gets dragged into the season longer.” The impact of finishing third has been meant Red Bull racing have enjoyed an extra 96 wind tunnel runs and 600 CFD items in the first half of this year when compared to the same time in 2024 where they received the full FIA handicap on aero testing.
Now if the team remain in fourth place come the end of the Austrian Grand Prix, they will see their aero testing allocation increase further for the next six months giving them 144 more wind tunnel runs and 900 more CFD items when compared to when they were leading the championship.
This gives Red Bull some 21.5% more time than McLaren in the wind tunnel up to December 2025 and the same percentage more of CFD items than their papaya liveried rivals. With the biggest set of F1 car design rule changes coming in 2026, aero testing is more important than ever before.
Speaking after Verstappen’s latest win in Monaco, Dr. Helmut Marko sized up the task ahead for the world cham poison and the Red Bull team. “He definitely needs five or six wins[ this year]. And that will be difficult against McLaren because McLaren have proven that their car works on any track, with any type of tyre and in any temperature,” Marko told sport.de
McLaren claim, “quality not quantity”
Since then another expected but disappointing result of fourth came Max’s way in Monaco, then after a brilliant three stop drive in Barcelona, Verstappen was crushed as the stewards time penalty relegated him to tenth, the last points paying position. Now 49 behind Oscar Piastri, Verstappen’s hopes of a record fifth consecutive title look forlorn.
Further, Red Bull need to see a shift in the balance of power at McLaren, with Lando Norris returning to the form he showed towards the end of 2024. With Canada and and Austria the next two venues on the F1 calendar, Red Bull and Verstappen’s hopes will be high. The circuit layouts suit the RB21 much better, and two wins for Verstappen would cast a new perspective on the race to Abu Dhabi this year.
Yet for now, Red Bull will accept their place in the pecking order come the end of the month, which will allow them to invest more resources than their immediate rivals into next year’s programme. Of course as it becomes more and more unlikely that Verstappen can fight back in this year’s drivers’ title race, even further resources will be shifted to the RB22 for next season.
Yet McLaren team boss Andrea Stella appears unconcerned over the handicap his team will suffer in the coming resource re-allocation. “You would always take P1 in the championship and then see how you can improve your efficiency in terms of aerodynamic development in the combination of CFD and wind tunnel time,” said the McLaren team principal.
No big car upgrades for McLaren
”Chasing efficiency is not only thanks to the wind tunnel, but is in the whole approach to aerodynamic development. We have experienced ourself that even if you have more and more restrictions, from a development point of view, the way you generate the knowledge, the efficiency, is by far the most important thing.
“It’s not like because I have three times the wind tunnel time, I will necessarily develop the car three times faster. So it’s not necessarily about quantity, we are very much investing in quality of development.”
This has been evident in McLaren’s approach to upgrading their car. There have been no great fanfares this year from the team claiming they have a game changer upgrade coming for the weekend. In fact, McLaren’s biggest hope was on a new floor they brought to Imola, but after it was tested by Norris and then Piastri in practice, the new part has never seen the light of day since.
Hopes of multi-team battle for the drivers’ title are fading this season and McLaren look to just about have got the constructors’ championship in the bag too. Red Bull’s only comfort in the situation is the extra time they are now allowed for testing and for what will surely be a highly complex piece of groundbreaking engineering, this may give them the advantage come the start of 2026.
The “terrible truth” about Lewis Hamilton
The fairy-tale arrival of Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari was supposed to mark the beginning of a new era, the final masterpiece from Formula 1’s most successful champion. However, a third of the way into the 2025 season, things have taken a far bleaker turn: a grim coda to an extraordinary career.
With Ferrari struggling and Hamilton finding it hard to adapt, former Formula 1 driver and veteran broadcaster Johnny Herbert has delivered a damning critique of the seven-time world champion’s current form and future prospects…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
