What a difference just six weeks makes in F1. As the season opener loomed into sight in Melbourne, Netbet online bookmakers had Lando Norris the strong favourite to claim this seasons’ F1 drivers’ championship at decimal 2.62. Max Verstappen was second favourite but out at 4.33 which Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc just behind at 5.5. These numbers are the multiple of say a £1 bet and express the rate of return someone betting on various drivers would receive.
Lewis Hamilton was next with odds of 6.5 whilst Oscar Piastri in the team the bookies believed would ace the constructors’ a huge 8.0 opportunity. Now Piastri is the bookies favourite having silenced doubters that he lacks the experience of his team mate as the Australian appears to have conquered his issues with understanding tyre wear.
Piastri had a tough start to the year having been out qualified by his team mate in Melbourne, he pushed him hard from the off until late in the race, a driver error coming into the final corners complex saw the Australian beach his car on the wet grass. Oscar recovered to claim a single point for tenth place, but was already almost an entire weekend being the F1 title favourite, whose odds came in even further as F1 headed to China.
With subsequent race wins in China and Bahrain, Piastri has closed the gap to his team mate to just three points having led double the laps so far of the British driver. The pair have both finished ahead of the other twice, but where Oscar was once the weaker of the two, he is averaging in qualifying a time of 0.115s better than Norris across the four Grand Prix to date.
As has been the case during their career as McLaren team mates, Norris has proven to be the more consistent driver with. Four podium finishes to Piastri’s three. But in terms of outright pace the early season honours go to the Australian as Lando Norris is struggling with the new front end of the McLaren car.
Whilst known for wearing his heart on his sleeve, Norris has for the most part been downbeat on his ability to master the MCL39. Speaking after the race in Bahrain he said “that something is just not clicking” between him and the McLaren car, which echoed his sentiments in China and Japan.
In a stark revelation, Norris went on to state he was performing “nowhere near” close to his best as he continued to wrestle with his 2025 McLaren in a way he did not have to do last season. The secret to Lando’s problems lay in how the front end of this car is reacting differently from last and the key is in the new layout the team have adopted for the suspension.
McLaren piqued a number of techies interest when they revealed their F1 challenger for 2025. A complete redesign of the front suspension which remains loosely of the pull rod configuration, has strengthened the anti-drive characteristics of the car, something which affects the approach to cornering.
As Red Bull’s technical director, Pierre Wache noted at the F1-75 launch. “The suspension of the McLaren is very interesting – in terms of kinematics. And one aspect is the anti-dive. It is very high. It is quite a risky kinematic for me. If they can make it work, it will be interesting.”
The new layout requires the suspension arms to cope with much greater loads than their previous suspension suffered, leading to a stiffer feel for the driver and incremental weight to prevent failures as noted by Wache too.
In the free practice two session, Martin Brundle went trackside to see the cars up close as they hurtled through the various sections of the Jeddah circuit. At turn two where the cars have slower significantly, most of the drivers were riding the right hand kerb with comfort. The veteran F1 commentator noted that he felt “Lando Norris was the worst” in terms of riding the kerb, as his McLaren was repeatedly bounced back from the edge of the track experience a series of shudders on landing.
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Brundle noted of the McLaren: “The car is fast. But it’s got a very clever front suspension system on it that is very aerodynamic. That’s the primary purpose for quite an extreme design and geometry and I think it’s taken away a little bit of steering feel as an improvement overall.”
The ex-McLaren F1 driver went on to suggest that Lando Norris is struggling with the less response feel of the new front end and is battling to find a way to drive around the issue. Norris famously is hard on himself when he feels he has not delivered as well as he is capable, something Brundle refers to next.
“And I think he just chooses to [respond negatively]. That’s how he rock and rolls. We’re all different, thank goodness. But he seems to need to give himself that pain of [saying]: ‘The car is not quite right.’
“The problem is that feeds his rivals. That feeds Max [Verstappen], it feeds George [Russell] and particularly it feeds Oscar when you hear somebody showing a vulnerability.”
Brundle believes when Norris brings his A game, he’s “unbeatable” and his starts to the weekends bar this one in Jeddah, have seen Lando finish top of the time sheets as the cars come out of their boxes for first practice. Yet Piastri was masterful last time out in Bahrain, and his assertive win Brundle described as “Very important.
“He was really in a class of one through that event and he was just so confident. Whether it was pole or whether it was the Safety Car restart, he had it covered in every way. When you think he’s led 107 laps this year compared to Lando’s 56 laps, the writing’s on the wall in terms of just how well Oscar’s going.
“I think they are equal number ones. They’ve got matching talent. I think if Lando brings his A-game to every grand prix and he gets out in front I think he’s pretty unbeatable.”
There’s a lot of ‘ifs’ in there,” concluded the veteran F1 journalist.
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The current breed of F1 cars since the regulation change for 2022 has unsettled a number of the more experienced members of ther F1 grid. Lewis Hamilton was forced to play second fiddle to George Russell at Mercedes and again is struggling with. His new Ferrari car when compared to his team mate. Yet this is not a design philosophy issue which is affecting Norris, but a tweak in aerodynamics made by McLaren to mitigate their biggest weakness in 2024 – straight line speed.
The team are unlikely if not incapable of switching the suspension for Norris, who has admitted will have to alter his driving style to accommodate the suspension changes. Meanwhile his team mate is grabbing all the headlines as the new favourite to be F1 drivers’ champion in 2025.
Norris has finished with practice sessions ahead of Piastri in Jeddah on a circuit which rewards a confident driver. Despite lambasting himself in public over his failure to deliver better this season, Norris has clearly lost none of his confidence in a car which for now is the class of the field.
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Williams boss James Vowels made a bold statement in the Jeddah paddock on Friday, that his team had now switched all regular resources usually allocated for in season development to the 2026 car. With twenty rounds of the 2025 Formula One season remaining, this if true would be a brave choice given the start Williams has had to the year so far.
The historic British Formula One team has collected 50% more constructors’ than Red Bull’s six over the years but fell away from the leading pack in F1 more than twenty years ago. Being a Mercedes customer, the team received a boost in 2014/15 when the all conquering new V6 turbo hybrid power unit built by Brackley saw them finish each season in third place.
Yet as the other power unit manufacturers caught up, the failings on the chassis side of the Williams cars saw them slump to being plumb last from 2018-2020. They were then sold to US financial business Dorilton Capital in 2020 for a reported $200m who may not have realised exactly what they had purchased…. READ MORE
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
