The Formula One world is abuzz with whispers and theories surrounding Max Verstappen’s future at Red Bull Racing. Despite being tied down to a long-term contract until the end of 2028, the Dutch superstar’s continued presence in Milton Keynes is no longer considered a certainty. The question on everyone’s mind is when will Verstappen’s release clauses kick in?
The conversation gained momentum in mid-March when McLaren CEO Zak Brown dropped a bombshell in an interview with The Telegraph, expressing his belief that Verstappen could part ways with Red Bull at the end of the current season. Brown even suggested Mercedes as a likely destination, adding further intrigue to an already volatile silly season narrative.
From “Let’s do this together” to buy-out speculation
The contrast between Verstappen’s now-iconic 2021 championship-winning radio message – in which he asked Red Bull to “please do this together for another 10, 15 years” – and today’s climate could not be more stark.
That emotional plea came in the euphoric aftermath of his first world title, won in one of the most dramatic finales the sport has ever seen. But Formula One evolves quickly and, three years on, the once unbreakable bond between Verstappen and Red Bull is showing signs of strain.
Despite signing a deal that will keep him at the wheel until 2028, Verstappen’s long-term future is far from guaranteed. Many in the paddock believe that key performance-related clauses in his contract could allow him to walk away – provided certain conditions are met.
The Horner crisis and Jos Verstappen’s warning
The first tremors began in early 2024, when internal tensions at Red Bull escalated following allegations against team principal Christian Horner.
Although Horner was eventually cleared, the affair left a cloud over the team. Verstappen’s father, Jos, didn’t mince his words, warning that the team could “explode” under the pressure. It was a stinging revelation that prompted many to re-examine Verstappen’s contractual situation and consider whether he might be closer to the exit door than previously thought.
Toto Wolff, the ever-strategic Mercedes team principal, took the opportunity to add fuel to the fire. He described a future partnership between Verstappen and Mercedes as “a relationship that has to happen at some point”, although he admitted that the timing remains uncertain.
Ralf Schumacher joins the chorus
Sky Sports pundit and former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher has also weighed in, suggesting Verstappen is actively assessing his options behind the scenes.
With Red Bull’s RB21 not performing to expectations-by Max’s own admission, it’s only the fourth-best car-Schumacher believes a decision could come quickly. “I think Max will leave the team,” he said in a recent appearance on the Formel1.de YouTube channel. “Especially if nothing happens in the next two, three or four races. That’s when the decision will be made.
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Big money moves and billion-dollar offers
Verstappen’s name isn’t just linked with Mercedes. Aston Martin have also reportedly shown interest, with team owner Lawrence Stroll rumoured to be making a bold £1 billion push to sign him. That push includes the recruitment of Adrian Newey, Red Bull’s legendary designer, who is said to be courted by Stroll as part of the grand vision.
But Zak Brown remains sceptical about Verstappen’s move to Aston Martin. While he acknowledges the team’s ambition and financial firepower, he doesn’t think the project is mature enough to lure someone of Verstappen’s calibre – especially with Mercedes in the picture.
“If I had to bet, I’d put my money on Mercedes,” said Brown. “They’ve won the championship seven or eight times in the last ten years. They won five races last year. They have stability. We know Toto likes them. And I think we all agree that Mercedes are best prepared on the engine side for the new regulations starting next year.”
He added that George Russell’s contract ends this season, and much-hyped junior driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli is likely to get a series of short-term deals. That leaves space for a top talent like Verstappen to step in.
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It’s not about the money
If Verstappen does decide to move, it won’t be for financial reasons. The Dutchman already commands one of the highest salaries in the sport, and the potential bidders – Mercedes, Aston Martin or even Ferrari – know that signing Verstappen means investing hundreds of millions over several seasons.
However, Aston Martin’s rumoured valuation drive may have added to Verstappen’s market value, inadvertently helping Mercedes by setting a benchmark.
But Mercedes has also faced challenges of its own. INEOS, a major shareholder in the team, is reportedly facing financial headwinds. That could make paying a record salary a more complicated affair – unless the move is based on something more than money.
The 2026 engine shake-up: Red Bull’s risky bet
Perhaps the more compelling factor for Verstappen is the looming overhaul of engine regulations in 2026. Red Bull is preparing to debut its first fully in-house power unit under the Red Bull Powertrains banner, co-branded with Ford. While it marks a bold new direction for the team, rumours suggest that early prototypes are falling short of the expected performance benchmarks set by established players such as Mercedes.
The change marks the end of Red Bull’s fruitful technical relationship with Honda, the engine partner that has powered Verstappen to his three titles. While Honda’s engines have proven to be competitive and reliable, the performance level of the forthcoming Red Bull powertrain remains an unknown – and that uncertainty could drive Verstappen elsewhere.
As Ralf Schumacher pointed out, the competitive future of Red Bull’s engine programme could heavily influence Verstappen’s decision. If the new power unit fails to deliver from the outset, Max may not wait long to make a move.
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Helmut Marko speaks – but leaves the door open
Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko was asked directly about Verstappen’s exit options. He confirmed that top drivers typically have performance-related clauses in their contracts, adding, “These clauses are not an issue at the moment.”
However, Marko did not reveal what benchmarks would trigger an exit option.
He hinted that the team’s performance in the first half of the season – possibly until the summer break – could be crucial. “That’s the window of opportunity,” Marko admitted. But he was quick to play down any concerns, pointing out that Red Bull still sit second in the standings, just eight points off the pace.
For now, he insisted that the team’s focus remains firmly on getting the RB21 back into race-winning form. “The updates are necessary for Max to take his fifth World Championship title. That’s our ultimate goal,” said Marko. “The whole team is working hard towards it.
Championships more important than constructors’ titles
Marko also underlined a crucial truth about Red Bull’s internal priorities: retaining Verstappen and helping him win a fifth Drivers’ title is more important than securing the Constructors’ title. This is in line with how Red Bull have previously framed their goals – and perhaps reflects how they assess their public perception.
After all, the team didn’t win the Constructors’ title in 2024, but Verstappen’s continued dominance secured their status as the top team in many eyes. Tying – and then surpassing – Sebastian Vettel’s record of four consecutive Drivers’ Championships would give Verstappen a place in Red Bull history that no one else has achieved.
So when do the clauses kick in?
The million-dollar question remains unanswered, officially. The ambiguity is fuelling speculation. Does he have to drop out of the top three in the Constructors’ Championship? Does the team have to go winless for a certain period of time? Do they have to be more than a certain number of points behind?
Marko didn’t clarify any of this. And Verstappen, always careful with his words off the track, has given no public indication. What is clear is that if Red Bull don’t get back to winning ways soon, those clauses – whatever they are – will become very relevant, very quickly.
Insiders close to the team suggest that Verstappen has already got his contract clause activated when Adrian Newey officially left the team last year.
Certainly, until Red Bull can deliver race wins with confidence, the idea of Verstappen in a silver – or green – racing suit may not be as far-fetched as it once seemed.
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The good Dr. Helmut Marko, advisor to the Red Bull energy empire and head of the Red Bull young driver programme, is hastily doing the media rounds following the shock announcement that Red Bull were demoting the latest team mate of world champion Max Verstappen.
Red Bull started the 2024 season having smashed pretty much every F1 record there is the previous year, winning 21 of the 22 Grand Prix, claiming the constructors’ title with Max leading a 1-2 finish in the drivers’ title race.
And there were no early signs of trouble in Milton Keynes come the start of last season as Verstappen claimed victory in four of the opening five rounds and only losing out in Australia due to a huge brake failure as he was leading the race. Perez to was doing his part to continue the team’s record breaking run converting three of his team mate’s victories into 1-2 finishes along with a third place in China… READ MORE ON THIS STORY
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
