Tsunoda stakes claim as Lawson falters as Red Bull driver shake-up looms – The chances of a mid-season driver swap at Red Bull are growing stronger by the day. With pressure mounting in the garage and performance gaps becoming too significant to ignore, the Chinese Grand Prix may have marked a key turning point in Red Bull’s 2025 campaign. Yuki Tsunoda, currently driving for Racing Bulls, has once again outshone Liam Lawson – this time on a weekend that has intensified scrutiny of the decision to promote the Kiwi over the consistent and increasingly vocal Japanese driver. For the Japanese GP, a driver swap between the two teams is understood to be ‘likely’.
Tsunoda, fresh from another strong showing in both the sprint and main race in Shanghai, is making a very public case for his elevation to the top Red Bull seat. And with Red Bull management openly acknowledging the situation, it now seems less a question of if there will be a change, and more of when.
Liam Lawson, who was handed the keys to the coveted RB21 just a few weeks ago, is finding life next to Max Verstappen far from easy. After a tough debut in Australia, the weekend of the Chinese Grand Prix offered little respite, with Lawson qualifying last for both the sprint and the Grand Prix. Despite managing to bring the car home in 15th place on Sunday, his lack of pace has sparked internal conversations and Red Bull’s leadership is no longer ruling out a change.
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Yuki Tsunoda’s upward trajectory has been one of the few consistent threads in a chaotic early season. In China he qualified ninth for the main race and finished sixth in the sprint – results that only added to his growing reputation as a sharp, reliable rider.
The main Grand Prix didn’t reflect his level of performance due to a combination of questionable team strategy and late race misfortune. A two-stop approach left him vulnerable on track, and a front wing failure in the closing laps forced an unscheduled pit stop that left him at the back of the field when the chequered flag fell.
But even with that result, the consensus in the paddock was clear: Tsunoda had once again outperformed the machinery available to him. And that wasn’t lost on the media – or the Red Bull management. Helmut Marko, always forthright in his assessments, notably refused to rule out a driver swap when pressed after the race. The suggestion, once unlikely, is now gaining real traction.
When asked if he would be ready to jump into the senior team’s RB21 car alongside Max Verstappen, Tsunoda’s answer was blunt, confident and revealing.
“Yeah, why not?” he told reporters. “Japan? Yes, 100 per cent. The car is faster, I’m sure”.
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Lawson’s tough weekend underlines the scale of the challenge
While Tsunoda impressed, Liam Lawson endured another gruelling weekend. He went into the Chinese Grand Prix needing to bounce back from a Q1 crash and early retirement in Melbourne. Instead, the 22-year-old qualified 20th for both the sprint and the main race. Despite completing both without major incident, the story of Lawson’s performance was one of damage control – not pace.
In a field where every tenth counts, the gaps between Lawson and his rivals became impossible to ignore. Unable to make up ground through sheer speed, he relied instead on pit stops and attrition to climb from the back of the grid. After finishing 15th in the Grand Prix, Red Bull insiders are said to be reassessing whether his promotion came too soon.
Given the caliber of the car he’s in – the same machinery Verstappen has driven to multiple podiums – 15th place simply isn’t enough. And with Tsunoda’s consistency piling on the pressure, Lawson could find the clock ticking on his time at the top.
Horner defends Red Bull philosophy: “Go with the fastest driver…”
At the heart of the issue may lie Red Bull’s long-standing approach to car development. Team principal Christian Horner has responded to growing speculation that Red Bull’s cars are too closely tailored to Max Verstappen’s unique driving style – making life difficult for any teammate trying to match his pace.
“Max is quite specific in what he wants from a car to make it fast,” Horner explained during an interview with Sky Sports. “That is generally a very sharp front end, a car that turns in very aggressively. The downside is that the rear becomes unstable, and that can really sap a driver’s confidence”.
This set-up philosophy works brilliantly for Verstappen, who has mastered the art of driving on the edge of grip. But for drivers like Lawson – still adapting to the demands of F1 and trying to find confidence in one of the most temperamental cars on the grid – it is a nightmare scenario.
“You always follow the direction of your fastest driver,” added Horner. “That determines the development of the team.”
That comment may be true in principle, but when it leaves a string of capable teammates – Pierre Gasly, Alexander Albon, Sergio Perez and now Liam Lawson – struggling to find pace, it opens up wider questions about whether Red Bull’s system is sustainable.
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McLaren’s dominance adds urgency to Red Bull’s driver conundrum
Making matters worse for Red Bull is McLaren’s surge in form. Oscar Piastri took a dominant lights-to-flag victory in Shanghai, with team-mate Lando Norris completing a one-two for the Woking-based outfit. George Russell secured third for Mercedes, while Verstappen could only manage fourth – a result that punctuated a frustrating weekend for the reigning world champion.
The results mean that McLaren have now won back-to-back races, with Norris taking victory in Australia. With Ferrari also lurkingAll Posts close behind, Red Bull can no longer afford to treat team decisions as a problem for the future. They need two drivers to fight consistently at the front, especially if they are to fend off this multi-pronged threat.
Lawson’s inability to get performance out of the RB21 over two race weekends is now a very real concern. Whether the team will give him a chance to recover at the Japanese Grand Prix remains uncertain – but Tsunoda is already making the case that he deserves the opportunity instead.
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Tsunoda’s timing couldn’t be better as the F1 circus heads to Japan
Next race on the calendar? The Japanese Grand Prix – Tsunoda’s home race, and one that could carry extra weight in Red Bull’s evaluation of its driver line-up.
It’s no secret that Tsunoda has long dreamed of driving for Red Bull at Suzuka, and the stars may finally be aligning. With confidence, form and public support behind him, he’s doing everything in his power to force Red Bull’s hand.
As Tsunoda himself said, “Japan, yes, 100%.
If Red Bull decide to make the switch, Suzuka would be a symbolic and strategic moment. It would also send a strong message to the rest of the grid: Red Bull is prepared to act decisively to defend its position at the top of F1.
And with Liam Lawson struggling to find his feet, while Tsunoda continues to outperform his car and teammates alike, that decision might not be as difficult as it once seemed.
The writing seems to be on the wall.
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