Lawson under pressure with a rocky start intensifies in Shanghai – Liam Lawson’s journey into the Red Bull Senior Team was never going to be easy, but few expected the New Zealander’s debut season to begin on such a steep downslide. After three rounds of underwhelming results, punctuated by a dismal performance in China, the spotlight has intensified on Lawson, and not in the way any young driver would hope.
Lawson’s outing at the Shanghai International Circuit was one to forget. While his team-mate Max Verstappen made his way into Q2 with minimal drama, Lawson was once again languishing at the bottom of the timesheets. A full seven-tenths off Verstappen’s pace – an eternity in Formula One – he finished P20 for the second day running.
To make matters worse, Lawson was caught out on his out lap when Pierre Gasly jumped the queue, leaving the Red Bull driver compromised before he’d even started a flying lap. The frustration was palpable and the clock is now ticking louder than ever.
Lawson’s current qualifying positions are: P18 in Australia, P20 in sprint qualifying in China and P20 again in Grand Prix qualifying. For a driver in a seat as high stakes as Red Bull’s, those numbers are simply not good enough. They reinforce the image of a driver who isn’t up to the job – and they invite speculation about how long he’ll be given to turn things around.
Alonso attacks FIA track safety
Sprint race offers hope, but not enough
There was a glimmer of hope in the sprint race, where Lawson moved up from P20 to 14th. But even this modest recovery was fraught with complications. A brush with Jack Doohan in the sprint added another misstep to a growing list. While the progress through the field showed some racing ability, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the recurring problems in qualifying.
Helmut Marko, while acknowledging that Lawson had a “solid race”, made it clear that better Saturdays are not optional – they are mandatory. “It was overtaking, but he showed that this is a tough race… I hope now that his qualifying works – that he starts where he should in Q3 – and then he can work for points,” Marko told Motorsport.com.
That statement was more than just analysis – it was a warning.
FIA seismic U-Turn as ditching new engines discussed
Helmut Marko’s high expectations
Marko has always been straightforward about what he expects from his drivers. Before the season even began, he publicly set the bar for Lawson: to be within three tenths of Verstappen in both qualifying and the race. That, he said, should be enough to consistently score points in the Constructors’ Championship.
But Lawson hasn’t come close. In Australia, he didn’t make it out of Q1. In China, he was left in the dust – twice. Meanwhile, Verstappen is consistently on the front row, further emphasising the gulf between them.
Marko’s patience never lasts long and Red Bull’s driver history is full of those who couldn’t make the grade – Brendon Hartley, Daniil Kvyat and even Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon, both of whom were demoted after brief stints in the senior team.
That’s what makes the rumour of a two-race probationary period so plausible. Marko has seen enough to be concerned about, and with competitive alternatives waiting in the wings, the timing couldn’t be worse for Lawson.
Lawson “burn out” with worst Red Bull driver start
Tsunoda looms large
Perhaps the biggest threat to Lawson isn’t Marko’s disapproval – it’s the rising form of Yuki Tsunoda. Racing for Red Bull’s sister team (now renamed VCARB), Tsunoda is putting together the most mature and consistent season of his F1 career.
In China, he qualified P6 for the sprint and held that position for 19 laps – a demonstration of pace and composure that didn’t go unnoticed. Marko himself acknowledged the change in Tsunoda’s demeanour. “Yuki is a different Yuki from the years before,” he said. “He changed his management and has a different approach. It took a while, but now it seems to be working”.
Although Marko added that Tsunoda should “concentrate on his riding” and not look at Lawson’s seat, the subtext is unmistakable. If Lawson falters, Tsunoda is the first name on the replacement list.
Villeneuve’s words of caution
1997 World Champion Jacques Villeneuve, now an F1 pundit, offered a frank assessment of Lawson’s situation during F1 TV’s coverage of the Chinese Grand Prix weekend. He didn’t sugar-coat the challenge facing the Kiwi in Red Bull’s high-pressure structure.
“It’s also not the right team to have a bad weekend in,” said Villeneuve. “Because Helmut Marko doesn’t like it. He really pushes his drivers. He wants them to be mentally strong. And if you don’t make it, he chops you up. And they know that. So it’s a tough place to be. In another team he would be better protected.
Villeneuve’s comments are more than just punditry – they are a reflection of the brutal reality that defines Red Bull’s approach to driver development. There is no relief. No cushions. Just results or the door.
A narrow window to turn things around
Rumours now suggest that Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s notoriously demanding advisor, has placed Lawson on a two-race probationary period following the Chinese Grand Prix.
Whether or not that probation is official, the implications are clear. Lawson has to deliver – and fast. Because in the world of Red Bull, there are no warm-up laps when your seat is on the line.
If the rumours are true and Lawson is indeed on a two-race probation, that means Miami and Imola could be crucial. These are tracks that demand precision, especially in qualifying – an area that has been Lawson’s Achilles heel so far.
He doesn’t have to beat Verstappen – nobody expects that. But he does need to close the gap. Marko’s benchmark of three-tenths isn’t an arbitrary number; it’s a performance threshold that separates drivers who are adapting from those who are drowning. If Lawson can’t meet that standard, his future with Red Bull could be over before the European season even begins in earnest.
There’s still time, but not much. In F1, and especially at Red Bull, opportunities are rare and fleeting. For Lawson, the next two races aren’t just a test of speed – they’re a test of resilience, maturity and adaptability.
And if he can’t deliver, someone else will.
READ MORE – Williams in trouble
MORE F1 NEWS – George Russell is “demotivating the entire Mercedes team
As pre-season Formula One testing drew to a close, the conclusion amongst observers was pretty unanimous. McLaren were the class of the 2025 F1 field. Yet the results from testing are notoriously difficult to judge, given that certain teams did no qualifying simulations and others chose not to perform full tanks race simulations.
Yet come the Australian Grand Prix last weekend, the analysts were proved correct and the MCL39 is the car to catch this season. George Russell despondently noted that the papaya liveried cars had “such an advantage” that “they can stop development now and go fully on 2026”.
Although this is unlikely given in season F1 upgrades often deliver between one to two seconds of improved pace for the teams across the ten months of racing around the globe…. READ MORE ON THIS STORY
With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
