Formula 1’s notorious “silly season” – the period of wild speculation in the driver market – traditionally begins mid-year, often sparked by surprise results, contract expirations or cryptic statements from drivers and team principals. But in 2025, McLaren CEO Zak Brown is kicking things off before the first race has even taken place. And he’s not doing it quietly.
Max Verstappen’s dominant reign at Red Bull Racing has been nothing short of historic in recent years, but beneath the surface of multiple world titles and runaway victories, tensions have been quietly building. While the Dutch star remains the face of the team and arguably the fastest driver on the grid, the harmony that once defined his partnership with Red Bull appears to be eroding. Sources close to the paddock – and increasingly vocal comments from his father, Jos Verstappen – have suggested that both driver and family are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the internal dynamics at the team.
Cracks appear around Verstappen at Red Bull
The first visible cracks appeared in the second half of the 2024 season, when Red Bull’s once-unrivalled performance began to slip. While still competitive, the RB20 no longer possessed the edge that had previously made it untouchable. McLaren, Ferrari and even Mercedes closed the gap significantly, forcing Verstappen to fight harder for wins and sometimes settle for podiums rather than dominance.
For a driver who thrives on performance and perfection, the drop in pace was unsettling – especially considering that Adrian Newey, the genius behind so many of Red Bull’s previous triumphs, seemed to have taken a step back from his usual hands-on role in the car’s development.
Red Bull leadership problems
By the start of 2025, with another hard-fought title race on the horizon, the frustrations seemed to be mounting. Internally, Red Bull has been weathering a storm of its own making, with power struggles involving team boss Christian Horner and long-time advisor Helmut Marko – one of Verstappen’s closest allies.
Tensions reached a boiling point during the 2024 season, as rumours of Horner’s off-track controversies and clashes with Marko threatened to destabilise the team. For Verstappen, loyalty to Marko runs deep and any move to sideline or diminish his role was reportedly met with resistance.
Now, with the RB21 showing signs of stagnation compared to its dominant predecessors and uncertainty surrounding the team’s leadership, Verstappen’s long-term future at Red Bull looks less certain than it once did. Max’s silence and subtle warnings from his father are beginning to paint a picture of discontent – one that rivals such as Mercedes will no doubt be watching very closely.
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Zak Brown stirs the pot
In an eyebrow-raising interview, Brown has made the bold claim that reigning world champion Max Verstappen will not be driving for Red Bull Racing next season. Instead, he believes Verstappen will be donning the silver of Mercedes.
It’s a bold statement and one that is already reverberating throughout the paddock. Is this a genuine insight from a well-connected team principal, or a strategic psychological play designed to destabilise a rival team? Either way, it has set the tone for a fiery season ahead.
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Zak Brown’s wild prediction: Verstappen to Mercedes
In a recent interview with The Telegraph, Zak Brown didn’t mince words when it came to his thoughts on Max Verstappen’s future.
“I think he’s going to leave at the end of the year,” Brown said, before adding a clear and confident prediction: “Most likely to Mercedes.”
The McLaren boss also acknowledged the ongoing rumours linking Verstappen to Aston Martin, particularly in light of superstar designer Adrian Newey’s links to the Silverstone-based team. But Brown was sceptical about Aston Martin’s readiness to absorb a driver of Verstappen’s calibre.
“As great as Adrian is – and he is the greatest of all time – you need a whole team around you,” Brown argued. “You need the culture. That takes time.”
Instead, his gut feeling is that Mercedes is the more realistic and likely destination.
“If I had to bet, I’d bet on Mercedes,” he said.
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Brown: New engines a big reason for decision
Brown’s reasoning is based on Mercedes’ recent success and structural stability, despite two relatively lean years.
“In the last ten years they’ve won the championship seven or eight times. They won five races last year. They have stability. We know Toto likes him. And I think we all feel that HPP [Mercedes High Performance Powertrains] are best equipped on the powertrain side for the new engine regulations next year.”
Brown’s logic is certainly sound. Verstappen has always been driven by performance and long-term project confidence. If he were to leave Red Bull, it would likely be for a team that promises immediate competitiveness with a stable technical future. That profile certainly exists at Mercedes.
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An opportunity in the Mercedes line-up
Brown also pointed to Mercedes’ evolving driver situation. George Russell’s contract expires at the end of the season, and with young talent Kimi Antonelli waiting in the wings, Brown hinted that the team may not want to saddle themselves with a completely untested line-up. Antonelli is expected to be brought in cautiously, probably on a short-term deal that doesn’t tie the team down too early.
The implication is that a Verstappen move could allow Mercedes to pair an experienced multiple world champion with a rising star, creating a line-up that balances immediate title ambitions with long-term development.
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Contact with Verstappen’s camp confirmed
Brown has not been shy about testing the waters across the grid. Speaking to Sky shortly before the season opener in Australia, he confirmed that he had made contact with Verstappen’s management. He was quick to dismiss the conversation as business as usual, pointing out that he’s done the same with many drivers.
“It was nothing unusual,” he insisted. “You have to know what’s going on in the market.”
But he added a tantalising comment: “He [Verstappen] could start a domino effect.”
It’s a statement with weight. Verstappen’s potential exit from Red Bull would shake the driver market to its core. It could free up top talent, destabilise team structures and open doors that previously seemed closed.
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Red Bull’s response: Horner plays it cool
Red Bull Racing has predictably reacted to the speculation. Team principal Christian Horner was quick to play down any suggestion of Verstappen’s departure.
“You hear these rumours every week, but he’s still here,” said Horner. “Max is very happy in the team, he’s got a wonderful group of engineers around him, he’s got a great car, he’s in the best car on the grid, he’s driving in the shape of his life”.
It’s a familiar refrain from Horner, who has spent the last several years fending off interest in his star driver. Verstappen’s current contract runs until 2028, a long-term commitment that reflects the team’s desire to build their future around him.
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Fragile stability at Red Bull
Despite Horner’s reassurances, all is not rosy behind the scenes at Red Bull. The team faced its first real internal turmoil in years during the 2024 season. A growing rift between Horner and Helmut Marko – Verstappen’s long-time mentor and Red Bull advisor – cast a shadow over the championship campaign.
This internal turmoil was compounded by off-track issues involving Horner, who faced serious allegations from a former employee. While the matter was resolved behind closed doors, it left an air of unease around the team. Verstappen, known for his loyalty and internal cohesion, was reportedly unhappy with the situation, especially if it meant compromising Marko’s influence or role.
Add to that Red Bull’s waning dominance and the picture becomes more nuanced. Although Verstappen still won the championship in 2024, the season was far more competitive than the previous two years. McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all closed the gap, with Red Bull no longer winning both titles by mid-season. If this trend continues into 2025, it could be the final push Verstappen needs to consider a move.
Jos Verstappen joins the chat
Max Verstappen himself has remained silent on Brown’s claims, but his father, Jos Verstappen, took to Instagram to voice his opinion. Under a post quoting Brown’s predictions, Jos responded pointedly, suggesting that the McLaren boss was simply trying to stir the pot.
His comment adds a personal dimension to the story. Jos Verstappen has been a vocal and influential figure in his son’s career, and his defence of Red Bull could indicate the family’s continued loyalty to the team – or at least their irritation at outsiders questioning it.
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Looking ahead: A domino waiting to fall?
As the 2025 season gets underway, Brown’s comments may prove to be nothing more than a strategic provocation. But even if the prediction proves inaccurate, it has already achieved something significant: it has put the spotlight on Verstappen’s future and the underlying vulnerabilities at Red Bull.
Max Verstappen is under contract until 2028, but in F1, contracts can be fragile things – especially if performance falters, team harmony breaks down or external opportunities become too tempting to ignore. Brown’s theory may be speculative, but the pressure he’s applying is real.
If Red Bull falter, or if internal strife resurfaces, the Verstappen-to-Mercedes narrative will only grow louder. Whether Brown has inside knowledge or is simply playing mind games, his comments have ensured that the 2025 season will be viewed through a new lens, one coloured by possibility, intrigue and the looming question: could Max Verstappen really leave?
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As pre-season Formula One testing drew to a close, the conclusion amongst observers was pretty unanimous. McLaren were the class of the 2025 F1 field. Yet the results from testing are notoriously difficult to judge, given that certain teams did no qualifying simulations and others chose not to perform full tanks race simulations.
Yet come the Australian Grand Prix last weekend, the analysts were proved correct and the MCL39 is the car to catch this season. George Russell despondently noted that the papaya liveried cars had “such an advantage” that “they can stop development now and go fully on 2026”.
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With over 30 years of experience in Formula 1 as an insider journalist, I have built trusted connections across the paddock, from race engineers and mechanics to senior team figures. At The Judge 13, I and a handful of trusted colleagues share exclusive Formula 1 news, expert analysis and behind-the-scenes stories you will not find in mainstream motorsport media.
